{ "date": "2026-04-16", "generated_at": "2026-04-16T06:44:03.986572", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-04-16", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 14, "matched_count": 8, "unmatched_count": 6 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 8, "grouped_pitcher_count": 8, "sportsbook_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 8, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 29.1, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3075, "model_under_probability": 0.6925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5192, "edge_over": -0.2071, "edge_under": 0.1369, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1369, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "pitcher_id": 663460, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3967, "model_under_probability": 0.6033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.1831, "edge_under": 0.1131, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1131, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9767.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1315, "edge_under": 0.0602, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0602, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 39.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 70.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3214, "model_under_probability": 0.6786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.125, "edge_under": 0.0545, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0545, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4119, "model_under_probability": 0.5881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.1073, "edge_under": 0.0386, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0386, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "skill_score": 68.3, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5192, "edge_over": -0.0936, "edge_under": 0.0234, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0234, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 6.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 76.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4128, "model_under_probability": 0.5872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.0774, "edge_under": 0.0074, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0074, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -180, "expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 26.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3616, "model_under_probability": 0.6384, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3993, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6007, "edge_over": -0.0658, "edge_under": -0.0045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }