{ "date": "2026-03-27", "generated_at": "2026-03-27T20:58:23.670910", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-03-27", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 18, "matched_count": 18, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 18, "grouped_pitcher_count": 6, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 18, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:30:06.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 120, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "model_over_probability": 0.4074, "model_under_probability": 0.5926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5709, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4291, "edge_over": -0.1973, "edge_under": 0.1381, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1381, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:58.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "model_over_probability": 0.4074, "model_under_probability": 0.5926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.205, "edge_under": 0.1339, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1339, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:24.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 110, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "model_over_probability": 0.4074, "model_under_probability": 0.5926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5541, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4459, "edge_over": -0.1844, "edge_under": 0.1164, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1164, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 105, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5408, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4592, "edge_over": -0.1535, "edge_under": 0.0912, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0912, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:51.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": 100, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.1385, "edge_under": 0.079, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.079, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:30:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -102, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.1442, "edge_under": 0.074, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.074, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 100, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "model_over_probability": 0.4315, "model_under_probability": 0.5685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5306, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4694, "edge_over": -0.1337, "edge_under": 0.0685, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0685, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:51.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -105, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "model_over_probability": 0.4315, "model_under_probability": 0.5685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5176, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4824, "edge_over": -0.118, "edge_under": 0.0563, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0563, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:30:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -106, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "model_over_probability": 0.4315, "model_under_probability": 0.5685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4808, "edge_over": -0.1241, "edge_under": 0.0539, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0539, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:46.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "model_over_probability": 0.4195, "model_under_probability": 0.5805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0927, "edge_under": 0.0249, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0249, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:32.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "model_over_probability": 0.4195, "model_under_probability": 0.5805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.0855, "edge_under": 0.0249, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0249, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:46.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 125, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4193, "edge_over": -0.0721, "edge_under": 0.0123, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -132, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "model_over_probability": 0.4195, "model_under_probability": 0.5805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5323, "edge_over": -0.0805, "edge_under": 0.0115, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0115, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:32.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.0452, "edge_under": -0.015, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.015, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T00:29:32.095Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -163, "under_odds": 128, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "model_over_probability": 0.5778, "model_under_probability": 0.4222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5856, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4144, "edge_over": -0.042, "edge_under": -0.0164, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0164, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", 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