{ "date": "2026-09-23", "generated_at": "2026-09-23T23:44:55.287524", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-09-23/home_run_edges_2026-09-23.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 865, "expected_home_runs": 0.151, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1402, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1402, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1644, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1578, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0685, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0685, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0366, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 855, "expected_home_runs": 0.151, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1402, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1402, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1644, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1578, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0674, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0561, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0674, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 850, "expected_home_runs": 0.151, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1402, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1402, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1644, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1578, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0668, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0555, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0668, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0349, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1769, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1776, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1753, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1776, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0541, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0391, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1769, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1776, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1753, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1776, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0533, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0458, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }