{
  "date": "2026-09-12",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-12T23:48:31.341571",
  "artifact_type": "hr_core_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-09-12/home_run_edges_2026-09-12.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 10,
    "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability"
  },
  "rows": [
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      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 1,
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      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0745,
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    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
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      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
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      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
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      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
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      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
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      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0728,
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
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      "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon",
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      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
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      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
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    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
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      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
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      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
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      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
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      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0096,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0508,
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    {
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      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
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      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082,
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      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1832,
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      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1832,
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      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
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      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
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      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
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      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
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      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
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      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044,
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      "edge_over": 0.0645,
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    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 8,
      "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn",
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      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
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      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1832,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
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      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
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      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
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      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
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      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0519,
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      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
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    {
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      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.95,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1996,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.184,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1832,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.187,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2108,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1831,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1832,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.043,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0509,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.043,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0635,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 10,
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 515,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2249,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2014,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.41,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2014,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1836,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2046,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2054,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1783,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1836,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.042,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0165,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0388,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}