{
  "date": "2026-07-14",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T23:32:01.539769",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-14/home_run_edges_2026-07-14.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh",
      "hitter_id": 669016,
      "team_abbr": "NL",
      "opponent_abbr": "AL",
      "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 720,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1944,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.173,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 36,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
      "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0501,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0311,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0501,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0547,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 7,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh",
      "hitter_id": 669016,
      "team_abbr": "NL",
      "opponent_abbr": "AL",
      "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 715,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1944,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.173,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 36,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
      "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0304,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0494,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.054,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 7,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh",
      "hitter_id": 669016,
      "team_abbr": "NL",
      "opponent_abbr": "AL",
      "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 715,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1944,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.173,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 36,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
      "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0304,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0494,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.054,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 7,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team_abbr": "NL",
      "opponent_abbr": "AL",
      "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 620,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2065,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1806,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1947,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2047,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1777,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1806,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0402,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0558,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0402,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0477,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team_abbr": "NL",
      "opponent_abbr": "AL",
      "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 620,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2065,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1806,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1947,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2047,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1777,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1806,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0402,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0558,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0402,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0477,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}