{ "date": "2026-07-14", "generated_at": "2026-07-13T23:32:01.539730", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-14/home_run_edges_2026-07-14.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 620, "expected_home_runs": 0.2065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1806, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1947, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2047, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1777, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1806, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0402, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0558, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0402, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0477, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 620, "expected_home_runs": 0.2065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1806, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1947, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2047, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1777, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1806, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0402, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0558, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0402, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0477, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 615, "expected_home_runs": 0.2065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1806, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1947, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2047, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1777, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1806, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0392, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0548, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0392, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0467, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 720, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0501, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0311, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0501, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0547, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 715, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0304, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0494, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.054, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 715, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0304, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0494, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.054, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 500, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1976, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1772, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1821, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1586, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1772, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0054, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0348, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0054, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0309, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1976, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1772, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1821, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1586, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1772, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.004, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0334, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.004, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0295, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1976, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1772, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1821, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1586, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1772, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.004, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0334, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.004, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0295, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "NL", "opponent_abbr": "AL", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 630, "expected_home_runs": 0.1953, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1774, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1431, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1439, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1516, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1424, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1293, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1439, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 20, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0015, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0146, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0015, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0404, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }