{ "date": "2026-07-10", "generated_at": "2026-07-09T23:33:49.961520", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-10/home_run_edges_2026-07-10.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2242, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2342, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2231, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2413, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2122, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2231, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1017, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0655, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1017, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.046, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2242, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2342, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2231, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2413, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2122, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2231, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1017, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0655, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1017, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.046, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2242, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2342, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2231, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2413, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2122, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2231, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1009, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0647, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1009, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2147, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1932, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1932, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2269, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2342, "hr_prob_refined": 0.226, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2113, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.226, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0861, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0516, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0861, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0451, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2503, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2492, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2547, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.226, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2492, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0551, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0335, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }