{ "date": "2026-07-02", "generated_at": "2026-07-01T23:32:48.738074", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-02/home_run_edges_2026-07-02.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 540, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2447, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2552, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2519, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2578, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2293, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Strong structure worth monitoring, but not as broad or clean as the premium pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1035, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0957, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1035, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0885, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 535, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2447, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2552, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2519, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2578, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2293, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Strong structure worth monitoring, but not as broad or clean as the premium pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1022, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0944, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1022, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0872, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 530, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2447, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2552, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2519, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2578, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2293, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Strong structure worth monitoring, but not as broad or clean as the premium pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.101, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0932, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.101, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.086, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2461, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2446, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.204, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2446, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1272, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0715, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1272, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0515, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2461, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2446, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.204, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2446, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1272, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0715, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1272, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0515, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 650, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2461, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2446, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.204, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2446, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1264, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0707, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1264, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0507, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1988, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1988, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2488, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2475, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2475, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1116, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0574, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1116, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0507, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1988, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1988, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2488, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2475, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2475, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1104, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0562, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1104, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0495, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1988, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1988, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2488, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2475, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2475, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1104, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0562, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1104, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0495, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2323, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2073, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1991, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_refined": 0.198, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.198, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0578, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0697, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0578, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0694, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }