{ "date": "2026-06-07", "generated_at": "2026-06-06T23:33:35.271008", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-07/home_run_edges_2026-06-07.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2514, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2223, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2507, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2522, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2481, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2724, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2452, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2522, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0492, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0265, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2357, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2357, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1893, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1905, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2246, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2357, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2066, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1905, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0449, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0904, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0449, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.1015, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2357, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2357, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1893, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1905, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2246, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2357, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2066, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1905, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0449, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0904, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0449, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.1015, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2357, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2357, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1893, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1905, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2246, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2357, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2066, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1905, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0895, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.044, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.1006, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 590, "expected_home_runs": 0.242, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2149, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2149, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1877, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1863, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2241, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2354, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2063, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1863, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0342, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0792, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0342, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.07, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }