{ "date": "2026-06-05", "generated_at": "2026-06-04T23:33:14.831683", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-05/home_run_edges_2026-06-05.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2398, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2132, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2132, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2513, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2504, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2382, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2334, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2504, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0486, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0275, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 635, "expected_home_runs": 0.2334, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2082, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2082, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2504, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2494, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2331, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2428, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2494, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1227, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0961, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1227, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0712, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 5, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 630, "expected_home_runs": 0.2334, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2082, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2082, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2504, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2494, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2331, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2428, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2494, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1227, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0961, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1227, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0712, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 5, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 525, "expected_home_runs": 0.2484, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.22, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1865, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1873, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2356, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1873, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0493, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0191, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.06, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2484, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.22, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1865, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1873, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2356, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1873, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.048, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0587, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2484, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.22, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1865, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1873, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2356, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1873, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.048, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0587, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }