{ "date": "2026-05-28", "generated_at": "2026-05-27T23:35:14.094491", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-28\\home_run_edges_2026-05-28.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 960, "expected_home_runs": 0.1471, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1368, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0383, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0586, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0848, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.056, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0401, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 945, "expected_home_runs": 0.1471, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1368, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0383, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0586, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0834, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0574, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0954, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0387, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0411, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 940, "expected_home_runs": 0.1471, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1368, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0383, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0586, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0829, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0579, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0959, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0382, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0406, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 780, "expected_home_runs": 0.181, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1793, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0626, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0655, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0208, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.052, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 775, "expected_home_runs": 0.181, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1793, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0626, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0648, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0201, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }