{
  "date": "2026-05-23",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-22T23:35:14.487558",
  "artifact_type": "hr_conviction_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-23\\home_run_edges_2026-05-23.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "filtered_high_conviction_singles",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.25,
      "min_edge": 0.08,
      "max_odds": 650.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 6
    }
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 550,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.236,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2471,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2559,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0887,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1594,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2608,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2325,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0882,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1059,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0056,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1533,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0411,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0564,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 545,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.236,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2471,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2559,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0887,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1594,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2608,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2325,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0882,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1047,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0044,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0399,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0552,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 545,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.236,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2102,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2471,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2559,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0887,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1594,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2608,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2325,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0882,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1047,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0044,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0399,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0552,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_id": 676475,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 625,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.252,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.38,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2445,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2561,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0882,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1772,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2539,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2252,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0877,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
      "damage_score": 2,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1218,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0393,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1374,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.057,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0849,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_id": 676475,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 625,
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      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.38,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2445,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2561,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0882,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1772,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2539,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2252,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0877,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
      "damage_score": 2,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1218,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0393,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1374,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.057,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0849,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    }
  ]
}