{
  "date": "2026-05-17",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-17T14:45:58.087446",
  "artifact_type": "hr_parlay_overlay",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-17\\home_run_edges_2026-05-17.json",
  "summary": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "selection_logic": "best_distinct_2_leg_hr_parlays_from_filtered_pool",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.2,
      "min_edge": 0.05,
      "max_odds": 700.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 7,
      "max_pool": 6
    }
  },
  "parlays": [
    {
      "legs": [
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "James Wood",
          "hitter_id": 695578,
          "team_abbr": "WSH",
          "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
          "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 485,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.252,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.261,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2601,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0916,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2039,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2742,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2472,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0909,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.033,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1702,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0241,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0519,
          "play_tier": "Play",
          "lineup_slot": 2,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "neutral"
        },
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
          "hitter_id": 683737,
          "team_abbr": "CHC",
          "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
          "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 440,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2472,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.38,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.255,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2583,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1951,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0907,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.204,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2674,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2397,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0895,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0745,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0188,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.184,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0099,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0338,
          "play_tier": "Lean",
          "lineup_slot": 3,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        }
      ],
      "joint_probability": 0.0674,
      "joint_implied_probability": 0.0317,
      "joint_edge": 0.0358,
      "correlation_tag": "Neutral",
      "same_game_dependency": false,
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}