{
  "date": "2026-05-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-07T18:35:33.666517",
  "artifact_type": "hr_parlay_overlay",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-07\\home_run_edges_2026-05-07.json",
  "summary": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "selection_logic": "best_distinct_2_leg_hr_parlays_from_filtered_pool",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.2,
      "min_edge": 0.05,
      "max_odds": 700.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 7,
      "max_pool": 6
    }
  },
  "parlays": [
    {
      "legs": [
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
          "hitter_id": 686469,
          "team_abbr": "KC",
          "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
          "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 475,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2474,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2559,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2586,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0906,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1794,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2687,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2411,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0899,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0055,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0453,
          "play_tier": "Play",
          "lineup_slot": 3,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "neutral"
        },
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette",
          "hitter_id": 666182,
          "team_abbr": "NYM",
          "opponent_abbr": "COL",
          "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana",
          "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
          "over_odds": 695,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2543,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.33,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2444,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.256,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0881,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1559,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2579,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2294,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0877,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
          "damage_score": 2,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
          "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1339,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0301,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1254,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0691,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0987,
          "play_tier": "Strong",
          "lineup_slot": 3,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        }
      ],
      "joint_probability": 0.0674,
      "joint_implied_probability": 0.0219,
      "joint_edge": 0.0456,
      "correlation_tag": "Neutral",
      "same_game_dependency": false,
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}