{ "date": "2026-04-21", "generated_at": "2026-04-21T09:56:16.126916", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-21\\home_run_edges_2026-04-21.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2296, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2525, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0853, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1441, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0847, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0268, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1703, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.024, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.028, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2296, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2525, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0853, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1441, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0847, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0873, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0225, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0265, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2296, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2525, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0853, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1441, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0847, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0873, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0225, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0265, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2412, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2504, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2569, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0895, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1753, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2348, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0888, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1731, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0404, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 960, "expected_home_runs": 0.1573, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1456, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1694, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1762, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0609, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1869, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0607, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0848, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0534, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0401, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }