{ "date": "2026-04-21", "generated_at": "2026-04-21T09:56:16.126916", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-21\\home_run_edges_2026-04-21.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2412, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2504, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2569, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0895, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1753, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2348, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0888, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0106, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.049, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0346, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 440, "expected_home_runs": 0.246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2525, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1924, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1941, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2273, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1984, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0771, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0061, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0089, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1844, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0507, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0329, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 935, "expected_home_runs": 0.1735, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1593, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1934, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0658, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1104, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1875, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0655, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0825, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0963, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0378, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }