{ "date": "2026-04-08", "generated_at": "2026-04-08T08:15:01.908846", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-08\\home_run_edges_2026-04-08.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "hitter_id": 608701, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 695, "expected_home_runs": 0.2104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2512, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0817, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2558, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2272, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0813, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 43, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin 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"hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0817, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2558, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2272, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0813, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 43, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1331, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0626, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0683, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0631, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "hitter_id": 608701, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 690, "expected_home_runs": 0.2104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2512, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0817, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2558, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2272, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0813, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter 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"lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2676, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2487, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0795, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0789, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0036, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0157, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0722, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 510, "expected_home_runs": 0.2676, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2487, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0795, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2102, 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around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0318, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0049, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1632, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0709, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2676, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2487, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0795, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0788, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0304, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1646, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0184, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0695, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 780, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2013, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1973, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0699, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1253, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0821, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0117, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0332, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0725, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 775, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2013, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1973, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0699, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1253, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0814, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.011, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0325, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0718, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 775, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2013, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1973, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0699, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1253, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0814, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.011, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0325, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0718, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1879, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1713, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1921, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0655, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1647, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2319, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.203, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0652, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0322, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0019, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly" } ] }