{
  "date": "2026-04-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-07T06:14:14.169608",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-07\\home_run_edges_2026-04-07.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_id": 666018,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 655,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2068,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0811,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1797,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2521,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2233,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0807,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 33,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1272,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0472,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1321,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0624,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0543,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_id": 666018,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 655,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2068,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0811,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1797,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2521,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2233,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0807,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 33,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1272,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0472,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1321,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0624,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0543,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
      "hitter_id": 666018,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 650,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2068,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0811,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1797,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2521,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2233,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0807,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 33,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1264,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0464,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1329,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0616,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0535,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 575,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2191,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2316,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.253,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0856,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1489,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2446,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2156,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0851,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1116,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0008,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1477,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0468,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0487,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 570,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2191,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2316,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.253,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0856,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1489,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2446,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2156,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0851,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1104,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0004,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1489,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0456,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0475,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}