{
  "date": "2026-04-04",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T08:42:30.278028",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-04\\home_run_edges_2026-04-04.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena",
      "hitter_id": 677588,
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 1150,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1201,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1132,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.78,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1452,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1657,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0551,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0307,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1928,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1675,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0548,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0921,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0493,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0332,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena",
      "hitter_id": 677588,
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
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      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1132,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.78,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1452,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1657,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0551,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0307,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1928,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1675,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0548,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0921,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0493,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0332,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena",
      "hitter_id": 677588,
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 1150,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1201,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1132,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.78,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1452,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1657,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0551,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0307,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1928,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1675,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0548,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0921,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0493,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0332,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 590,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2491,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2205,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2432,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2369,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1758,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0841,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1719,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2414,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2123,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0836,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0893,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.027,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1444,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0309,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0756,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 485,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2354,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2461,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2556,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0886,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1919,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2587,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2302,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0879,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.021,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1702,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0241,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
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      "edge_over": 0.0388,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}