{ "date": "2026-04-04", "generated_at": "2026-04-04T08:42:30.278028", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-04\\home_run_edges_2026-04-04.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2354, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2461, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2556, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0886, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1919, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0879, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.021, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1702, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0241, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2354, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2461, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2556, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0887, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1919, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0879, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0358, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2354, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2097, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2461, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2556, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0887, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1919, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0879, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0358, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 590, "expected_home_runs": 0.2491, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2205, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2432, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2369, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1758, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2414, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0836, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0893, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0309, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0756, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2491, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2205, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2432, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2369, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1758, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2414, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0836, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0882, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0745, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2491, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2205, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2342, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2432, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2369, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1758, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2414, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0836, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0882, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0745, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2417, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0715, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1978, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0711, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0219, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0796, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2417, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0715, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1978, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0711, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0219, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0796, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 635, "expected_home_runs": 0.2417, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2147, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0715, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1978, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0711, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0209, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1357, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0016, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0786, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2766, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2508, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.192, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1607, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1945, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0768, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.011, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0074, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1675, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0336, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0735, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }