{
  "date": "2026-04-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:21.043360",
  "artifact_type": "hr_parlay_overlay",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-03\\home_run_edges_2026-04-03.json",
  "summary": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "selection_logic": "best_distinct_2_leg_hr_parlays_from_filtered_pool",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.2,
      "min_edge": 0.05,
      "max_odds": 700.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 7,
      "max_pool": 6
    }
  },
  "parlays": [
    {
      "legs": [
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
          "hitter_id": 671056,
          "team_abbr": "STL",
          "opponent_abbr": "DET",
          "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez",
          "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
          "over_odds": 635,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2072,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1236,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.051,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1356,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0588,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.051,
          "play_tier": "Play",
          "lineup_slot": 2,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "neutral"
        },
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Ben Rice",
          "hitter_id": 700250,
          "team_abbr": "NYY",
          "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
          "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 525,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2196,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2269,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0849,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2089,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2455,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2165,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.084,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0997,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0489,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1592,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.035,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0372,
          "play_tier": "Lean",
          "lineup_slot": 6,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        }
      ],
      "joint_probability": 0.0674,
      "joint_implied_probability": 0.0218,
      "joint_edge": 0.0457,
      "correlation_tag": "Neutral",
      "same_game_dependency": false,
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}