{ "date": "2026-04-03", "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:21.043360", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-03\\home_run_edges_2026-04-03.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 635, "expected_home_runs": 0.2072, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1236, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.051, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0588, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.051, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 635, "expected_home_runs": 0.2072, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1236, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.051, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0588, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.051, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 630, "expected_home_runs": 0.2072, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1227, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0501, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1365, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0579, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0501, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 525, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2269, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0849, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2089, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2455, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2165, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.084, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0997, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0489, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1592, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.035, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0372, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2269, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0849, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2089, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2455, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2165, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.084, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0984, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0476, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1605, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0337, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0359, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2269, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0849, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2089, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2455, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2165, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.084, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0971, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0463, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1617, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0324, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0346, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 540, "expected_home_runs": 0.2543, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2609, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2074, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0819, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2095, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0813, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0395, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0533, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0093, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0683, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 535, "expected_home_runs": 0.2543, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2609, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2074, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0819, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2095, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0813, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0382, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1569, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0106, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.067, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 535, "expected_home_runs": 0.2543, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2609, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2074, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0819, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2095, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0813, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0382, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1569, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0106, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.067, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2469, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2188, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.221, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1867, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0717, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1451, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2362, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2071, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0708, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0384, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1826, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0489, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0353, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }