{
  "date": "2026-04-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:21.043360",
  "artifact_type": "hr_conviction_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-03\\home_run_edges_2026-04-03.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "filtered_high_conviction_singles",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.25,
      "min_edge": 0.08,
      "max_odds": 650.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 6
    }
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_id": 671056,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 635,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2072,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1236,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.051,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1356,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0588,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.051,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_id": 671056,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 635,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2072,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1236,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.051,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1356,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0588,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.051,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_id": 671056,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 630,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2072,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.219,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2524,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0831,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1871,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.249,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2201,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0826,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1227,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0501,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1365,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0579,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0501,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Ben Rice",
      "hitter_id": 700250,
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 525,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2196,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2269,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0849,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2089,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2455,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2165,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.084,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0997,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0489,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1592,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.035,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0372,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Ben Rice",
      "hitter_id": 700250,
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 520,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2196,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2269,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0849,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2089,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2455,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2165,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.084,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0984,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0476,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1605,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0337,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0359,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    }
  ]
}