{ "date": "2026-03-22", "generated_at": "2026-04-04T23:07:40.619681", "artifact_type": "home_run_plays", "artifact_version": "home_run_plays_v1", "source_artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "source_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "source_projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v1_deterministic", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-03-22\\home_run_edges_2026-03-22.json", "activation_logic": { "activation_version": "rule_b_activation_v1", "premium_version": "rule_c_premium_v1", "main_rule": { "edge_over_minimum": 0.06, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier_minimum": 1.05, "over_odds_minimum": 200, "over_odds_maximum": 299 }, "premium_rule": { "edge_over_minimum": 0.055, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier_minimum": 1.05, "over_odds_minimum": 240, "over_odds_maximum": 299 }, "notes": [ "Rule B rows become the production HR board.", "Rule C is additive and marks a row as premium without excluding other Rule B rows." ] }, "summary": { "play_count": 6, "premium_count": 6, "sportsbook_count": 3, "unique_hitter_count": 2, "average_over_odds": 280.0, "average_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3311, "average_edge_over": 0.0678 }, "plays": [ { "date": "2026-03-22", "activation_rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 275, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3155, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3122, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2335, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1106, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3057, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1092, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0733, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0488, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0455, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2653, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0441, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.053, "source_play_tier": "Strong", "activation_tier": "Premium Play", "premium_flag": true, "reason_tags": [ "High Edge", "Pitcher HR Risk", "Plus-Money Window", "Premium Zone", "Premium Odds Band", "Top-Half Lineup" ], "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "source_market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "source_edge_abs_rank": 1 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "activation_rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 270, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3155, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3122, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2335, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1107, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3057, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1092, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0697, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0081, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0452, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0419, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2688, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0405, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.053, "source_play_tier": "Play", "activation_tier": "Premium Play", "premium_flag": true, "reason_tags": [ "High Edge", "Pitcher HR Risk", "Plus-Money Window", "Premium Zone", "Premium Odds Band", "Top-Half Lineup" ], "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "source_market_format": "one_sided_hr", "source_edge_abs_rank": 2 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "activation_rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 295, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3223, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3667, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3209, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2334, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1207, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.3076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3664, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3639, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1195, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0691, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0544, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1135, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0677, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0576, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.108, "source_play_tier": "Play", "activation_tier": "Premium Play", "premium_flag": true, "reason_tags": [ "High Edge", "Pitcher HR Risk", "Plus-Money Window", "Premium Zone", "Premium Odds Band", "Top-Half Lineup" ], "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "source_market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "source_edge_abs_rank": 3 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "activation_rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 265, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3155, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3122, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2335, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1108, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3057, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1092, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.066, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0118, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0415, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0382, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2724, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0405, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0368, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.053, "source_play_tier": "Play", "activation_tier": "Premium Play", "premium_flag": true, "reason_tags": [ "High Edge", "Pitcher HR Risk", "Plus-Money Window", "Premium Zone", "Premium Odds Band", "Top-Half Lineup" ], "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "source_market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "source_edge_abs_rank": 4 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "activation_rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 290, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3223, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3667, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3209, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2334, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1208, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.3076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3664, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3639, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1195, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0659, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0512, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1103, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0645, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2552, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0544, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.108, "source_play_tier": "Play", "activation_tier": "Premium Play", "premium_flag": true, "reason_tags": [ "High Edge", "Pitcher HR Risk", "Plus-Money Window", "Premium Zone", "Premium Odds Band", "Top-Half Lineup" ], "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "source_market_format": "one_sided_hr", "source_edge_abs_rank": 5 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "activation_rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3223, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3667, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3209, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2334, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1208, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.3076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3664, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3639, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1195, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0626, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0479, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.107, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0612, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2584, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0263, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0511, "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.108, "source_play_tier": "Play", "activation_tier": "Premium Play", "premium_flag": true, "reason_tags": [ "High Edge", "Pitcher HR Risk", "Plus-Money Window", "Premium Zone", "Premium Odds Band", "Top-Half Lineup" ], "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "source_market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "source_edge_abs_rank": 7 } ] }