{
  "date": "2025-08-19",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-02T23:35:58.153440",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_plays",
  "artifact_version": "home_run_plays_v1",
  "source_artifact_type": "home_run_edges",
  "source_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay",
  "source_projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v1_deterministic",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2025-08-19\\home_run_edges_2025-08-19.json",
  "activation_logic": {
    "activation_version": "rule_b_activation_v1",
    "premium_version": "rule_c_premium_v1",
    "main_rule": {
      "edge_over_minimum": 0.06,
      "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier_minimum": 1.05,
      "over_odds_minimum": 200,
      "over_odds_maximum": 299
    },
    "premium_rule": {
      "edge_over_minimum": 0.055,
      "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier_minimum": 1.05,
      "over_odds_minimum": 240,
      "over_odds_maximum": 299
    },
    "notes": [
      "Rule B rows become the production HR board.",
      "Rule C is additive and marks a row as premium without excluding other Rule B rows."
    ]
  },
  "summary": {
    "play_count": 2,
    "premium_count": 0,
    "sportsbook_count": 2,
    "unique_hitter_count": 1,
    "average_over_odds": 232.5,
    "average_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3632,
    "average_edge_over": 0.0624
  },
  "plays": [
    {
      "date": "2025-08-19",
      "activation_rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
      "hitter_id": 660271,
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "pitcher_name": "Austin Gomber",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 235,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3632,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3632,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3202,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2336,
      "hr_prob_palantir": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3632,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3595,
      "palantir_confidence_label": null,
      "palantir_signal_label": null,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0647,
      "hr_edge_palantir": null,
      "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0647,
      "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0217,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2965,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0649,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0123,
      "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09,
      "source_play_tier": "Play",
      "activation_tier": "Activated Play",
      "premium_flag": false,
      "reason_tags": [
        "High Edge",
        "Pitcher HR Risk",
        "Plus-Money Window",
        "Premium Zone",
        "Top-Half Lineup"
      ],
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "lineup_source": "projected",
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "handedness_matchup": "same_side",
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly",
      "hr_multiplier": 1.127,
      "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0,
      "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5",
      "source_market_format": "two_sided_over_under",
      "source_edge_abs_rank": 1
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-08-19",
      "activation_rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
      "hitter_id": 660271,
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "pitcher_name": "Austin Gomber",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 230,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3632,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3632,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3202,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0022,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2336,
      "hr_prob_palantir": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3632,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.3595,
      "palantir_confidence_label": null,
      "palantir_signal_label": null,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0602,
      "hr_edge_palantir": null,
      "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0602,
      "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0172,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3008,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0694,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0078,
      "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09,
      "source_play_tier": "Play",
      "activation_tier": "Activated Play",
      "premium_flag": false,
      "reason_tags": [
        "High Edge",
        "Pitcher HR Risk",
        "Plus-Money Window",
        "Premium Zone",
        "Top-Half Lineup"
      ],
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "lineup_source": "projected",
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "handedness_matchup": "same_side",
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly",
      "hr_multiplier": 1.127,
      "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0,
      "source_market_type": "home_run_over_0_5",
      "source_market_format": "one_sided_hr",
      "source_edge_abs_rank": 4
    }
  ]
}