{ "date": "2026-09-26", "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-26T08:04:42.746445", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-26", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 99 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 168, "matched_count": 168, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 168, "matched_rows": 168, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 45, "under_recommendation_count": 1, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 6, "lean_count": 40, "no_play_count": 122, "average_edge_over": 0.0053, "average_edge_under": -0.043, "value_play_count": 0 }, "edge_count": 168, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.2131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1919, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112331, "model_over_probability": 0.1919, "model_under_probability": 0.8081, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1354, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8646, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0909, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9278, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1919, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1441, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1247, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1353, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1452, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1226, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0109, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0511, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0072, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0161, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3339, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1452, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1354, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12440674878656588, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1517, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8755932512134341, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.010993251213434113, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2131, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2131, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1331756852502343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8668243147497657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.002224314749765699, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1247, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1247, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8753, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0161, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008768936463668414, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1517, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0109, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0072, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -840, "expected_home_runs": 0.2131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1919, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112331, "model_over_probability": 0.1919, "model_under_probability": 0.8081, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8936, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.863, "edge_over": 0.0501, "edge_under": -0.0855, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0501, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9278, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1919, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1441, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1247, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1353, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1452, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1226, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0099, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0501, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0023, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0192, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3339, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1452, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.137, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12440674878656588, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1517, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8755932512134341, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.012593251213434131, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2131, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2131, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1331756852502343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8668243147497657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.003824314749765717, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1247, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1247, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8753, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0171, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008768936463668414, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1517, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0099, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0082, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1919, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112331, "model_over_probability": 0.1919, "model_under_probability": 0.8081, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0501, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0501, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9278, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0025, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01715834033418248, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1684, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0305, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0342, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1488, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1488, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8512, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0089, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025799111562578997, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1501, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0102, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0044, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9896, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.082, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.899, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.09, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1488, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1488, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8512, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.008, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025799111562578997, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1501, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0093, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0053, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Justin Verlander", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1836, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1677, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09567, "model_over_probability": 0.1677, "model_under_probability": 0.8323, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0269, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0269, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1677, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1433, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1488, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1566, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.142, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1501, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1373, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1259, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0093, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0269, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0025, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0053, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0053, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0149, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"valinor_prob_under": 0.8512, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.008, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025799111562578997, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1501, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.2133, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1921, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112471, "model_over_probability": 0.1921, "model_under_probability": 0.8079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1596, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8404, "edge_over": 0.0268, "edge_under": -0.0622, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0268, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9854, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.142, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.932, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1921, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1769, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1445, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1528, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1761, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1952, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1959, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1701, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0299, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0268, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0116, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0068, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0306, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0068, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0048, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, 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"hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1596, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.41, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.41, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1616969086380648, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1952, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8383030913619351, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.002096908638064804, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2133, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2133, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15255834033418247, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8474416596658175, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.007041659665817518, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1445, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1445, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8555, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0208, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017196908638064806, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1952, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0299, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0068, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.2375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.126199, "model_over_probability": 0.2114, "model_under_probability": 0.7886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.0626, "edge_under": 0.0267, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0267, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.124, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.051, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2114, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1492, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1588, 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"hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 55, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2645, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.38, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.38, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17194605482051878, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2076, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8280539451794813, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.09255394517948123, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", 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"valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03773971952831562, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2076, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0664, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1385, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Justin Verlander", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", 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null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.001, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.035627762615916075, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1266, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0096, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0252, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.122534, "model_over_probability": 0.2063, "model_under_probability": 0.7937, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1746, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8254, "edge_over": 0.0245, "edge_under": -0.0655, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0245, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9775, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2063, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1857, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1746, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1795094407211667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2169, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8204905592788333, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.004909440721166697, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0451, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042809440721166714, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2169, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0351, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0027, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1258, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.068288, "model_over_probability": 0.1258, "model_under_probability": 0.8742, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.0243, "edge_under": -0.0591, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0243, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8697, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.978, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.881, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1258, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1157, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 72, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1788, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.45, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0061, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.157, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1453, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.080796, "model_over_probability": 0.1453, "model_under_probability": 0.8547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0211, "edge_under": -0.056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0211, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8658, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.029, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.932, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", 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Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1004, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1004, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8996, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0238, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03737391169459696, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.145, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0208, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.018, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1085, "expected_home_runs": 0.157, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1453, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.080796, "model_over_probability": 0.1453, "model_under_probability": 0.8547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9156, 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"hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -780, "expected_home_runs": 0.1887, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.172, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.098586, "model_over_probability": 0.172, "model_under_probability": 0.828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8864, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1479, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8521, "edge_over": 0.0182, "edge_under": -0.0584, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0182, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", 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"valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1287, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1287, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8713, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0251, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009073911694596953, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1598, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.006, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0116, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 725, "under_odds": -1060, "expected_home_runs": 0.1491, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1385, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.076387, "model_over_probability": 0.1385, "model_under_probability": 0.8615, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9138, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8829, "edge_over": 0.0173, "edge_under": -0.0523, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0173, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8011, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.881, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, 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false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9289, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.082, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.899, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1684, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1419, 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0678, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02720043062750932, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1442, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0686, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0792, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.1489, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1383, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.076259, "model_over_probability": 0.1383, "model_under_probability": 0.8617, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": -0.0419, "edge_under": 0.0077, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7704, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.978, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.881, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1383, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1528, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.146, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1541, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1535, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1589, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1518, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0213, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0419, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0274, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0068, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, 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"Hayden Wesneski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2438, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2164, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.129818, "model_over_probability": 0.2164, "model_under_probability": 0.7836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2045, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7955, "edge_over": 0.0036, "edge_under": -0.044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.124, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.051, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2164, 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"valinor_hr_prob": 0.1604, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8396, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0524, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01987891785762136, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2082, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0046, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0407, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.1841, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1681, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09594, "model_over_probability": 0.1681, "model_under_probability": 0.8319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.159, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.841, "edge_over": 0.0028, "edge_under": -0.0423, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0028, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9814, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.919, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 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"valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01987891785762136, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2082, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -655, 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0.15255834033418247, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8474416596658175, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.009741659665817526, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1283, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1283, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8717, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0398, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.024258340334182477, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1597, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0084, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.004, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Justin Verlander", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, 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0.0542, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0471, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1125, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1243, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.053, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0682, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0697, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0875, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0118, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0033, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0258, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0329, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0325, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0075, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0325, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06256194122174544, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0682, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0471, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1723, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09879, "model_over_probability": 0.1723, "model_under_probability": 0.8277, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1716, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": -0.0063, "edge_under": -0.0344, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0063, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.008, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.976, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1723, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1494, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1716, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14273505155077754, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1728, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8572649484492225, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.028864948449222466, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0033, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03752608830540305, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1728, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0058, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0364, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1793, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.093244, "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1903, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8097, "edge_over": -0.0339, "edge_under": -0.0066, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0066, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.029, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.932, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1641, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1594, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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"recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0122, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0413, "captured_at": "2026-09-26T12:04:38.304613+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1726, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1585, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089497, "model_over_probability": 0.1585, "model_under_probability": 0.8415, 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