{ "date": "2026-06-16", "generated_at": "2026-06-16T08:02:58.226057", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-06-16", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 336, "matched_count": 336, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 336, "matched_rows": 336, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 156, "under_recommendation_count": 9, "strong_count": 2, "play_count": 71, "lean_count": 92, "no_play_count": 171, "average_edge_over": 0.0147, "average_edge_under": -0.0524, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 336, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.105, "edge_under": 0.0723, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0723, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.198, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1783, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1773, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1864, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1922, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1669, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1166, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.105, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1247, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1309, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1361, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1773, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1864, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1864, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8136, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1166, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2207, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1309, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.014300000000000007, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987, "model_over_probability": 0.1987, "model_under_probability": 0.8013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.1043, "edge_under": 0.0716, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0716, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1987, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1969, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1191, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1043, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1245, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1309, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1321, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0102, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1839, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1839, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8161, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1191, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2215, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1309, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.011800000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.2439, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2164, "model_over_probability": 0.2164, "model_under_probability": 0.7836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": 0.0671, "edge_under": -0.1071, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0671, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9246, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.45, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.175, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.061, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2164, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1881, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1866, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2278, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2204, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1919, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0785, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0671, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0388, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0711, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0426, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0206, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1866, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.08, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.08, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2278, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2278, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7722, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0785, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": 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"team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -295, "expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2825, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7175, "edge_over": -0.0961, "edge_under": 0.0552, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0552, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": 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9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1681, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1484, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1473, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1395, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1439, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1303, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0265, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0551, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0354, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0292, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0309, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00269999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.184, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1681, "model_over_probability": 0.1681, "model_under_probability": 0.8319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0551, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0551, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.058, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.995, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1681, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1484, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1473, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1395, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1439, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1303, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0265, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0551, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0354, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0292, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1556, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1473, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 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"fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0292, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00269999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -295, "expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987, "model_over_probability": 0.1987, "model_under_probability": 0.8013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2825, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7175, "edge_over": -0.0954, "edge_under": 0.0545, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0545, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1987, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1969, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1102, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0954, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1156, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.122, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0972, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1232, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0102, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1839, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1839, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8161, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1102, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2215, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.122, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.011800000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1692, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1557, "model_over_probability": 0.1557, "model_under_probability": 0.8443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.0542, "edge_under": -0.089, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0542, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8693, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.058, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.995, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1404, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1396, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1383, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1413, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1285, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0368, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0542, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0389, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.034, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.027, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1396, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1383, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1383, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8617, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0368, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1692, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1692, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.034, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.002799999999999997, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1967, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786, "model_over_probability": 0.1786, "model_under_probability": 0.8214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2579, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7421, "edge_over": -0.0881, "edge_under": 0.054, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.054, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1786, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1272, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1756, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1193, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0911, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0881, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1408, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1524, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1523, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1272, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", 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"palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.187, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.187, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0097, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.012499999999999983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -830, "expected_home_runs": 0.2124, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1914, "model_over_probability": 0.1914, "model_under_probability": 0.8086, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, 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HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.0, 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"hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1159, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.156, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.099, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1026, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0227, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0394, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0174, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0299, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0343, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 94, "edge_direction_rank": 81, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.42, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.42, "palantir_prob_over": 0.156, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.156, "palantir_prob_under": 0.844, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0227, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1896, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1896, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1034, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8966, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0299, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.052599999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "hitter_id": 660688, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1536, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1424, "model_over_probability": 0.1424, "model_under_probability": 0.8576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0393, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0393, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8916, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.96, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.032, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1424, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1422, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1422, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1465, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1321, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0206, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0393, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0391, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0391, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.029, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.031, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1422, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 95, "edge_direction_rank": 82, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1237, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8763, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0206, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1536, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1536, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0391, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.01849999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1015, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.138, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1289, "model_over_probability": 0.1289, "model_under_probability": 0.8711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0897, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0392, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1289, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1322, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1326, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1255, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.039, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0392, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0425, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0439, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0286, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.028, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1326, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 96, "edge_direction_rank": 83, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1287, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1287, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8713, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.039, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.138, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.138, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0439, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.004899999999999988, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "hitter_id": 660688, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 865, "under_odds": -1475, "expected_home_runs": 0.1536, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1424, "model_over_probability": 0.1424, "model_under_probability": 0.8576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1036, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9365, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0996, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9004, "edge_over": 0.0388, "edge_under": -0.0789, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8916, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.96, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.032, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.31, 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"valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.01849999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Kodai Senga", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.1896, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1727, "model_over_probability": 0.1727, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1159, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.156, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.099, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1026, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0218, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0385, 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"damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 98, "edge_direction_rank": 85, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.052599999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Kodai Senga", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1896, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1727, "model_over_probability": 0.1727, "model_under_probability": 0.8273, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0385, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0385, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8669, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.054, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1159, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.156, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.099, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1026, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0218, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0385, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0183, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0308, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", 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"neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1371, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1175, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1165, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1123, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0254, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0361, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0165, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0104, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0149, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0104, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0113, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1165, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, 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"palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1264, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1264, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8735999999999999, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0254, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1474, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1474, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1114, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0104, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1474, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1371, "model_over_probability": 0.1371, "model_under_probability": 0.8629, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0361, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0361, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1371, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1175, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1165, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1123, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0254, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0361, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0165, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0104, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0149, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0104, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0113, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1165, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 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"fangorn_projection": 0.1474, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1474, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1114, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0104, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, 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"valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.022299999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "hitter_id": 656716, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1810, "expected_home_runs": 0.1365, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1276, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1332, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.134, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1373, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1259, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0327, 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null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.010600000000000012, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -735, "expected_home_runs": 0.2171, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952, "model_over_probability": 0.1952, "model_under_probability": 0.8048, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8462, "edge_over": 0.0352, "edge_under": -0.0754, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0352, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9323, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1952, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1823, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1855, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1817, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0255, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0352, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.023, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0191, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0493, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0217, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0814, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1823, 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null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0102, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.1718, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1579, "model_over_probability": 0.1579, "model_under_probability": 0.8421, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0344, "edge_under": -0.0742, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0344, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.107, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1579, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1222, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.123, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1149, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.001, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0344, 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0102, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": 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"hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2236, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0572, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.033, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0775, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0873, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0873, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0512, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2488, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter 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"fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0873, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.030099999999999988, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 681715, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1705, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0326, "edge_under": -0.0675, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0326, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.77, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.77, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1568, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1191, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.12, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1405, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1109, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1094, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0163, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0326, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0051, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0134, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0133, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0148, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3109, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.12, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 133, "edge_direction_rank": 118, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.77, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.77, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1405, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1405, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8594999999999999, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0163, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1705, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1705, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1108, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8892, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0134, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.029700000000000018, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 682663, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.203, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1837, "model_over_probability": 0.1837, "model_under_probability": 0.8163, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1457, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8543, "edge_over": 0.0322, "edge_under": -0.072, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0322, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9611, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1837, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1619, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1608, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1705, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1496, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0276, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0322, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0104, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0035, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0019, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0789, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1608, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 136, "edge_direction_rank": 119, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.47, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.47, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1791, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1791, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8209, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0276, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.203, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.203, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0035, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02410000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 681715, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 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"opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 915, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1372, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1282, "model_over_probability": 0.1282, "model_under_probability": 0.8718, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0297, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0297, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7766, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.78, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1282, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1333, 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null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0023999999999999855, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.1926, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1752, "model_over_probability": 0.1752, "model_under_probability": 0.8248, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": 0.0292, "edge_under": -0.0694, 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0.0493, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1784, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.044899999999999995, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "hitter_id": 805300, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 910, "under_odds": -1595, "expected_home_runs": 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2282, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.204, "model_over_probability": 0.204, "model_under_probability": 0.796, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1686, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8314, "edge_over": 0.0286, "edge_under": -0.0689, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0286, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.204, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1851, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1983, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1722, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0395, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0286, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0097, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0037, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0032, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1841, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 157, "edge_direction_rank": 139, "value_score": 21.3, "value_rank": 19, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2149, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7851, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0395, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2282, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2282, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0037, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0358, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2222, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1992, "model_over_probability": 0.1992, "model_under_probability": 0.8008, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.835, "edge_over": 0.0283, "edge_under": -0.0641, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0283, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1992, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1786, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1775, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2031, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1835, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1598, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0322, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0283, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0012, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0111, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0874, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1775, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is 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"palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2222, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2222, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0012, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.031, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1926, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1752, "model_over_probability": 0.1752, "model_under_probability": 0.8248, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1262, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1186, "model_over_probability": 0.1186, "model_under_probability": 0.8814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0281, "edge_under": -0.063, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0281, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.063, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1186, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0237, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1177, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.053, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0797, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0272, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0281, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0763, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0905, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0375, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0108, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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"palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2102, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2102, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0095, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.030299999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": -410, "expected_home_runs": 0.1852, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1691, "model_over_probability": 0.1691, "model_under_probability": 0.8309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1691, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1436, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1422, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1619, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1373, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1259, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0707, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0635, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.089, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0971, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0953, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0971, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1067, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2025, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1422, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 166, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.34, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.34, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1619, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1619, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8381000000000001, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0707, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1852, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1852, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0971, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02639999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.1937, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1761, "model_over_probability": 0.1761, "model_under_probability": 0.8239, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": 0.0268, "edge_under": -0.0618, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0268, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9343, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1761, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1428, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1437, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1556, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1421, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1291, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0063, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0268, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0065, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0138, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0202, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1437, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 167, "edge_direction_rank": 148, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1556, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1556, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8444, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0063, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1937, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1937, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0138, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02009999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nick 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"opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1262, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1186, "model_over_probability": 0.1186, "model_under_probability": 0.8814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9472, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.026, "edge_under": -0.0658, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.026, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1012, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1258, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1271, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1087, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1273, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1194, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0287, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0212, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0458, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0536, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0473, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0394, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2763, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1271, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 192, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02489999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "hitter_id": 650333, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1067, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1012, "model_over_probability": 0.1012, "model_under_probability": 0.8988, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0212, "edge_under": -0.0612, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0212, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9819, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1012, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1258, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1271, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1087, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1273, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1194, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0287, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0212, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0458, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0536, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0473, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0394, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2763, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1271, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 193, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.63, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.63, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1087, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1087, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8913, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0287, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1067, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1067, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0536, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02489999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "hitter_id": 650333, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1067, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1012, "model_over_probability": 0.1012, "model_under_probability": 0.8988, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0212, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0212, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9819, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.26, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1947, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1663, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2028, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1769, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1545, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0289, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0208, 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"suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 201, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1367, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1367, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8633, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.028, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1363, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1363, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0471, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0471, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9529, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0616, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.08959999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, 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"historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2102, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1813, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1797, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2072, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1868, 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"fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 203, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": 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"pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.2092, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1888, "model_over_probability": 0.1888, "model_under_probability": 0.8112, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8356, "edge_over": 0.0179, "edge_under": -0.0572, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0179, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9621, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.032, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1888, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.182, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1811, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2103, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2045, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0394, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0179, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0111, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0336, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2715, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1811, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 204, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.57, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.57, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2103, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2103, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7897000000000001, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0394, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2092, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2092, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.031199999999999978, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "model_over_probability": 0.1947, "model_under_probability": 0.8053, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, 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4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.015, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.061, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1274, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0567, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0471, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0631, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1367, 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0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1656, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.06, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0524, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0453, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0518, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1707, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 239, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1574, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1574, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8426, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1803, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1803, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0453, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.01469999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003, "model_over_probability": 0.2003, "model_under_probability": 0.7997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1805, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8195, "edge_over": 0.0134, "edge_under": -0.0488, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0134, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.97, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.34, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2003, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1834, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2106, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2164, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1883, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0237, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0134, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0078, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0078, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0014, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0913, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1834, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 242, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2106, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2106, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7894, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0237, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2235, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0078, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0315, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -810, "expected_home_runs": 0.1722, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1582, "model_over_probability": 0.1582, "model_under_probability": 0.8418, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.14, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.86, "edge_over": 0.0133, "edge_under": -0.0483, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9354, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1582, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.146, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1454, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1689, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1655, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1458, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.024, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0133, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0011, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0505, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1454, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 243, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.64, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.64, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1689, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1689, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8311, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.024, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1722, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1722, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0027, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0267, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, 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"historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1582, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.146, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1454, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1689, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1655, 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0.0364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0091, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1799, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but 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"ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.186, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1697, "model_over_probability": 0.1697, "model_under_probability": 0.8303, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": 0.011, "edge_under": -0.0507, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": 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0.1697, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1714, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1716, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1459, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1845, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1606, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0128, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0127, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0134, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0019, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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"SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2471, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "model_over_probability": 0.2189, "model_under_probability": 0.7811, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0106, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0106, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, 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"hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1684, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1697, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2087, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1795, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1566, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0004, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0106, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0399, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.051, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0288, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0517, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, 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"implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0097, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1697, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1714, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1716, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1459, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1845, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1606, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0141, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0097, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0114, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0121, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0245, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0006, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0967, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1716, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 264, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.26, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.26, 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0262, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 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"hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.1802, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1649, "model_over_probability": 0.1649, "model_under_probability": 0.8351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0087, "edge_under": -0.0486, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0087, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": 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"fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0514, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1802, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1649, "model_over_probability": 0.1649, "model_under_probability": 0.8351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0074, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0074, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8028, 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1467, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1392, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1496, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1343, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0183, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0074, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0099, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0153, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0232, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, 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"Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 283, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1392, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1392, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8608, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0183, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1802, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1802, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0153, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0030000000000000027, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "model_over_probability": 0.1936, "model_under_probability": 0.8064, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": -0.0465, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9871, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1936, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1643, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1627, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.172, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1508, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0226, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0319, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0149, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0319, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0361, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1227, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1627, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 285, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.83, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.83, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1858, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8142, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0011, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2152, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0319, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.030799999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": 0.0065, "edge_under": -0.0409, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0065, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.176, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1428, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1436, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1414, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1396, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1274, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0281, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0065, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0267, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.034, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0421, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1436, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 288, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1414, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1414, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8586, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0281, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1936, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.034, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.005899999999999989, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0065, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0065, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.176, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1428, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 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0.1936, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.034, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.005899999999999989, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1642, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8358, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": -0.0472, "recommended_side": "No 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"palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0099, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1949, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0012, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.008699999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731, "model_over_probability": 0.1731, "model_under_probability": 0.8269, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1617, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8383, "edge_over": 0.005, "edge_under": -0.0449, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9782, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1731, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1496, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1636, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1444, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0023, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.005, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0185, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0259, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0237, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1484, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model 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"model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1658, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1658, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8342, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0023, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1901, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0259, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02360000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": 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"palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.203, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.203, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0466, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.027900000000000008, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1798, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1646, "model_over_probability": 0.1646, "model_under_probability": 0.8354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.845, "edge_over": 0.0033, "edge_under": -0.0441, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0033, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8461, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1646, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1748, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1762, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1713, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.206, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1788, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.01, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0033, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0135, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0175, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1762, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 310, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.007800000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936, "model_over_probability": 0.1936, "model_under_probability": 0.8064, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1842, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8158, "edge_over": 0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0374, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9871, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1936, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1643, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1627, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.172, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1508, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0047, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0031, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0262, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0355, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0397, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1227, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1627, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 311, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.83, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.83, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1858, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8142, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0047, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2152, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2152, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0355, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, 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"fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.009899999999999992, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": 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"ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.175, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.061, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.227, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.173, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.143, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1415, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1396, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1199, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0343, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0009, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0309, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0403, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.054, "palantir_confidence_label": 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"DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.1748, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1604, "model_over_probability": 0.1604, "model_under_probability": 0.8396, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8125, "edge_over": -0.0338, "edge_under": -0.0017, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8987, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1604, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.14, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1389, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1345, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.124, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0484, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0338, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0542, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0606, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0597, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0606, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0702, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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"hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1748, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1748, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0606, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.012200000000000016, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "hitter_id": 669364, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0467, "model_over_probability": 0.0467, "model_under_probability": 0.9533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0333, "edge_under": -0.0017, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8794, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0467, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0829, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.082, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0932, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0994, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0058, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0333, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0029, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0108, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.082, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 322, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 5.63, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 5.63, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0858, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9142, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0058, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0478, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0478, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0908, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9092, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0108, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1736, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1497, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1485, 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"ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1635, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1695, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0229, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006499999999999978, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "model_over_probability": 0.2036, "model_under_probability": 0.7964, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0138, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0138, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.04, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2036, 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"implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": -0.0262, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9314, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.107, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1641, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1578, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1568, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1737, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1685, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1481, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0049, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0145, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0208, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0236, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0236, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0305, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0292, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1568, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 233, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.61, "palantir_prob_over": 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.004200000000000009, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "hitter_id": 669364, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0467, "model_over_probability": 0.0467, "model_under_probability": 0.9533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0333, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0333, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8794, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0467, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0829, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.082, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0932, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0994, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0058, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0333, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0029, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0108, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.082, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 128, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 5.63, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 5.63, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0858, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9142, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0058, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0478, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0478, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0908, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9092, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0108, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0050000000000000044, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1527, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1416, "model_over_probability": 0.1416, "model_under_probability": 0.8584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0354, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0354, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.769, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.107, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1416, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1421, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1339, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0447, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0354, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.035, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0348, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0431, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0569, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1421, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 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0.1527, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1527, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0348, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.01469999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1852, 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"handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.107, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.845, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1691, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1436, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1422, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1619, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1373, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, 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"m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.34, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.34, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1619, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1619, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8381000000000001, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.068, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1852, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1852, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0944, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02639999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2208, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981, "model_over_probability": 0.1981, "model_under_probability": 0.8019, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0722, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0722, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.063, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1981, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1452, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1465, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1946, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1304, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1213, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0757, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0722, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1251, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1367, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1399, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1367, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.149, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1987, "model_over_probability": 0.1987, "model_under_probability": 0.8013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0998, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0998, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1987, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1969, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1146, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0998, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.12, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1264, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1276, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0102, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1839, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1839, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8161, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1146, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2215, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2215, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1264, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.011800000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1005, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.198, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1783, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1773, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1864, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1922, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1669, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1121, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1005, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1202, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1264, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1773, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed 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