{ "date": "2026-06-13", "generated_at": "2026-06-12T23:33:25.316780", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-06-13", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 291, "matched_count": 291, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 291, "matched_rows": 291, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 169, "under_recommendation_count": 7, "strong_count": 36, "play_count": 53, "lean_count": 87, "no_play_count": 115, "average_edge_over": 0.0273, "average_edge_under": -0.065, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 291, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.264, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232, "model_over_probability": 0.232, "model_under_probability": 0.768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0995, "edge_under": -0.1344, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0995, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9518, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.149, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1897, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1719, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0805, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0995, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0562, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0394, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1897, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 51.9, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.213, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.213, "palantir_prob_under": 0.787, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0805, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.264, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.264, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0466, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.033899999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -985, "expected_home_runs": 0.264, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232, "model_over_probability": 0.232, "model_under_probability": 0.768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": 0.0995, "edge_under": -0.1398, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0995, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9518, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.149, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1897, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1719, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0805, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0995, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0562, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0394, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1897, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 51.9, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.213, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.213, "palantir_prob_under": 0.787, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0805, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.264, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.264, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0466, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.033899999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.264, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232, "model_over_probability": 0.232, "model_under_probability": 0.768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0987, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0987, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9518, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.149, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1897, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1719, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0797, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0987, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0554, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0458, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0647, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0386, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1897, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 51.5, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.213, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.213, "palantir_prob_under": 0.787, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0797, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", 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"hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0583, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0303, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0206, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1855, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.04269999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": -1485, "expected_home_runs": 0.1627, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1502, "model_over_probability": 0.1502, "model_under_probability": 0.8498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9369, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": 0.0522, "edge_under": -0.0871, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0522, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9178, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.031, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.004, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1502, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1229, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1215, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1262, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.123, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1167, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0282, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0522, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0249, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0163, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0163, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0187, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1215, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 79, "edge_direction_rank": 73, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, 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"fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0163, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.011900000000000008, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan 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"confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.164, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1462, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1712, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1725, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1788, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2158, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1877, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0845, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0519, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0769, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0848, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1215, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0848, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0934, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1725, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start 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"hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -665, "expected_home_runs": 0.2461, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2182, "model_over_probability": 0.2182, "model_under_probability": 0.7818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8693, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1643, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8357, "edge_over": 0.0473, "edge_under": -0.0875, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0473, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.004799999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "hitter_id": 680777, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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3.81, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.084, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.59, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1731, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1496, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.147, 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0.7854, "edge_over": -0.0791, "edge_under": 0.0438, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0438, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.964, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0040999999999999925, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.264, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232, "model_over_probability": 0.232, "model_under_probability": 0.768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": 0.0433, "edge_under": -0.0827, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0433, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9602, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.151, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.18, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1897, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2274, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2068, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1795, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0387, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0433, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0096, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1226, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1897, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 103, "edge_direction_rank": 94, "value_score": 39.0, "value_rank": 19, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2274, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2274, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7726, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0387, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.264, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.264, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, 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"projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1711, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1589, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1582, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1543, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1692, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1486, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0236, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0404, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0282, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0243, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0385, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0179, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0121, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1582, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": 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0.1543, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8457, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0236, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1877, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1877, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0243, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0007000000000000062, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": -1005, "expected_home_runs": 0.1877, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1711, "model_over_probability": 0.1711, "model_under_probability": 0.8289, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9095, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1256, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8744, "edge_over": 0.0404, "edge_under": -0.0806, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0404, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8883, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.988, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.081, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1711, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1589, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1582, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1543, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1692, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1486, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0236, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0404, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0282, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0243, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0385, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0179, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0121, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1582, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 113, "edge_direction_rank": 103, "value_score": null, 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"hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1877, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1711, "model_over_probability": 0.1711, "model_under_probability": 0.8289, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0404, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0404, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02109999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2342, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2088, "model_over_probability": 0.2088, "model_under_probability": 0.7912, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0393, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0393, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9782, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.915, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.125, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2088, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1863, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1851, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, 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"model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2002, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2002, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7998000000000001, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0307, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2342, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2342, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, 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"valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.022799999999999987, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "hitter_id": 677588, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1263, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1186, "model_over_probability": 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"historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.004, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1982, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1837, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.183, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2115, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2001, 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.032399999999999984, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.229, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2047, "model_over_probability": 0.2047, "model_under_probability": 0.7953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": 0.0352, "edge_under": -0.0696, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0352, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9409, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.164, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2047, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1853, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1842, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1955, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2209, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1924, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.026, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0352, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0158, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0096, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0514, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0229, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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"fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.229, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.229, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0096, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.016399999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.229, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2047, "model_over_probability": 0.2047, "model_under_probability": 0.7953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0352, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0352, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9409, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.164, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2047, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1853, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1842, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1955, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2209, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1924, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.026, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0352, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0158, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0096, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0514, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0229, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1842, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust 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"palantir_hr_prob": 0.1955, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8045, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.026, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.229, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.229, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0096, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.004, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1982, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1837, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.183, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2115, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1737, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0476, 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": -1180, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9219, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1092, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8908, "edge_over": 0.0342, "edge_under": -0.0691, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0342, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8618, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.084, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.101, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1021, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1578, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0838, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0945, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0448, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0342, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0222, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0222, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0185, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0908, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9092, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0222, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, 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"Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.964, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1431, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1531, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1545, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1532, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1754, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1534, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0642, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0743, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0643, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0601, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.064, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable 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"suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.62, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.62, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1532, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1532, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8468, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0642, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1544, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1544, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0601, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, 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"pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.1879, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1713, "model_over_probability": 0.1713, "model_under_probability": 0.8287, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0324, "edge_under": -0.0671, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0324, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, 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"hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1583, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1645, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1723, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1509, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0256, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0324, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.02, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0161, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0334, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0161, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 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0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0021, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0363, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1842, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.032799999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.103, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2492, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2577, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2577, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2292, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1159, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0307, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1074, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1179, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0874, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2423, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 43, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 161, "edge_direction_rank": 147, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.1179, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0020000000000000018, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2288, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2045, "model_over_probability": 0.2045, "model_under_probability": 0.7955, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": 0.0306, "edge_under": -0.0703, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9755, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.103, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.96, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2045, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1852, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1842, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2191, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1907, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.046, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0306, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0113, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0052, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0452, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0168, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0809, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1842, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 162, "edge_direction_rank": 148, "value_score": 21.9, "value_rank": 73, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.96, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.96, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2199, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2199, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7801, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.046, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2288, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2288, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0052, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, 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0.8314, "edge_over": 0.0297, "edge_under": -0.07, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0297, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.031, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.004, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.103, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2492, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2577, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2577, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2292, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1148, 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"hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2051, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1787, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1994, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1817, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1584, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0224, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0281, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.003, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0049, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0186, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1787, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 170, "edge_direction_rank": 155, "value_score": 21.8, "value_rank": 75, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1994, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1994, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8006, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0224, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2296, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2296, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0049, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02729999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891, "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8449, "edge_over": 0.0278, "edge_under": -0.0679, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0278, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.058, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.081, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1891, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1821, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1811, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2154, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1883, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0541, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0278, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0208, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0552, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.027, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1811, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 171, "edge_direction_rank": 156, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.36, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.36, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2154, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2154, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7846, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0541, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2096, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0178, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0363, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2094, "model_over_probability": 0.2094, "model_under_probability": 0.7906, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1755, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8245, "edge_over": 0.0276, "edge_under": -0.0634, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0276, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.915, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.125, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2094, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1811, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1796, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1952, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1695, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0299, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0276, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0007, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0097, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0762, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1796, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 174, "edge_direction_rank": 159, "value_score": 24.0, "value_rank": 67, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.32, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.32, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2117, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2117, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7883, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0299, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.235, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.235, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0097, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.039599999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": 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"platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9138, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.164, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2046, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 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"team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1698, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1562, "model_over_probability": 0.1562, "model_under_probability": 0.8438, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0237, "edge_under": -0.0586, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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"valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.005600000000000022, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.1698, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1562, "model_over_probability": 0.1562, "model_under_probability": 0.8438, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.964, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1562, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1736, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1745, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2122, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1844, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.041, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0237, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0411, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0519, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1745, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 191, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": 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"Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.005600000000000022, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": 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"hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2101, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1895, "model_over_probability": 0.1895, "model_under_probability": 0.8105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0228, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0228, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": 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0.0234, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0244, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0256, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.02, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1032, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited 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"palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.52, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1096, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1096, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8904, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0296, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1081, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1081, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1034, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8966, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0234, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006199999999999997, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1081, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1025, "model_over_probability": 0.1025, "model_under_probability": 0.8975, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0225, "edge_under": -0.0625, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0225, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8895, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.138, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.98, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.52, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1025, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1031, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1032, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1096, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1044, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1056, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0296, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0225, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0231, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0234, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0244, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0256, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.02, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1032, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 198, 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null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.022400000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1971, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789, "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.845, "edge_over": 0.0176, "edge_under": -0.0584, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0176, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8461, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; 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null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1861, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1861, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8139000000000001, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0248, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1971, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1971, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0178, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0069999999999999785, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8872, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.164, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1943, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1644, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1629, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1798, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1503, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0028, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0173, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0126, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.022, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0056, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0267, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", 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null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.216, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.216, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.022, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, 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0.0082, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0082, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8748, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.968, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.151, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, 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"opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.151, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.202, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1644, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.184, 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"home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2129, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2129, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.099, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked 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"projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1787, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.179, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1791, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2062, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.179, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0516, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0435, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0432, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0431, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0432, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1791, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without 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0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2427, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2155, "model_over_probability": 0.2155, "model_under_probability": 0.7845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0477, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0477, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.915, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.125, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2155, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1554, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1568, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1451, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1311, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0512, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0477, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1078, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.121, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1321, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1568, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard 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"value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 39.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 39.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.212, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.212, "palantir_prob_under": 0.788, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0512, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2427, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2427, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.121, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0698, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0268, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0264, "model_over_probability": 0.0264, "model_under_probability": 0.9736, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0536, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0536, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.909, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.964, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0264, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0063, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0053, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0369, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0255, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0684, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0431, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0536, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0737, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0116, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0053, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 78, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.21, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.21, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0369, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0369, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9631, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0431, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0268, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0268, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0369, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0538, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0538, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.151, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2447, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2552, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.227, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2426, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2135, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0715, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0538, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0433, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0388, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0388, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.085, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0102, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 77, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.227, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.227, "palantir_prob_under": 0.773, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0715, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2807, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.2597, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.7403, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0388, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", 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"TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1544, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1431, "model_over_probability": 0.1431, "model_under_probability": 0.8569, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0767, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0767, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.964, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1431, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1531, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1545, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1532, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1754, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1534, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0666, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0767, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0667, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0625, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0625, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, 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"palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1544, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1544, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0625, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0040999999999999925, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2413, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2144, "model_over_probability": 0.2144, "model_under_probability": 0.7856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0841, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0841, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.164, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2144, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1876, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1862, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2081, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1807, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0966, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0841, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1109, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1194, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0904, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1178, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1862, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2019, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2019, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7981, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0966, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2413, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2413, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1194, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.022799999999999987, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232, "edge_over": 0.0995, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.149, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 51.9, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 540, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2412, "edge_over": 0.085, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.149, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 49.1, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416, "edge_over": 0.0735, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.151, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 48.2, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 590, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.231, "edge_over": 0.0861, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.125, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 45.3, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 715, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138, "edge_over": 0.0911, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.081, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 44.2, "value_rank": 5, "value_row_rank": 13, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }