{ "date": "2026-06-07", "generated_at": "2026-06-07T08:02:42.597354", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-06-07", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 324, "matched_count": 324, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 324, "matched_rows": 324, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 159, "under_recommendation_count": 9, "strong_count": 22, "play_count": 74, "lean_count": 72, "no_play_count": 156, "average_edge_over": 0.0191, "average_edge_under": -0.0568, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 324, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2357, "model_over_probability": 0.2357, "model_under_probability": 0.7643, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1297, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8703, "edge_over": 0.1015, "edge_under": -0.1362, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1015, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.173, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2357, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1893, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1905, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2246, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2357, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2066, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0904, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1015, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0551, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0449, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0449, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0724, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1905, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 53.5, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2246, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2246, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7754, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0904, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2688, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0449, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.045499999999999985, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2357, "model_over_probability": 0.2357, "model_under_probability": 0.7643, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1291, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8709, "edge_over": 0.1015, "edge_under": -0.1414, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1015, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.173, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2357, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1893, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1905, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2246, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2357, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2066, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0904, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1015, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0551, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0449, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0449, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0724, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1905, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 53.5, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2246, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2246, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7754, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0904, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2688, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0449, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.045499999999999985, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2688, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2357, "model_over_probability": 0.2357, "model_under_probability": 0.7643, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1006, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1006, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.173, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2357, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1893, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1905, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2246, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2357, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2066, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0895, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1006, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0542, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.044, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0715, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1905, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed 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0.8184, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0705, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0705, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.058, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, 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"hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0077, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0057, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.119, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": -1150, "expected_home_runs": 0.2047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1851, "model_over_probability": 0.1851, "model_under_probability": 0.8149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.92, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.111, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.889, "edge_over": 0.0702, "edge_under": -0.1051, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0702, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8852, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1851, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1429, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1439, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2178, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1185, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1029, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0702, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0187, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0036, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.343, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1070, "expected_home_runs": 0.1994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808, "model_over_probability": 0.1808, "model_under_probability": 0.8192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9145, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8797, "edge_over": 0.0558, "edge_under": -0.0953, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0558, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8638, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, 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"hr_multiplier": 0.995, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1462, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1712, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1725, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1788, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2158, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1877, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0845, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0519, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0769, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00030000000000002247, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -970, "expected_home_runs": 0.2038, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844, "model_over_probability": 0.1844, "model_under_probability": 0.8156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9065, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8718, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0909, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8669, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1844, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1241, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1255, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1667, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.106, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1066, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0334, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0511, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0092, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0225, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0225, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0267, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1255, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0050000000000000044, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.1, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.905, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1268, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1282, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1806, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1228, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1166, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0861, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0831, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1399, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1524, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1501, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1282, 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0.795, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.068, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2018, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2018, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0421, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02589999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.173, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1496, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1513, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1656, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1458, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0239, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0456, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0222, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0148, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0382, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0184, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0473, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1483, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the 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"timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1015, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1432, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1334, "model_over_probability": 0.1334, "model_under_probability": 0.8666, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0897, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0437, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0437, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.065, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.991, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1334, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1335, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1335, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1299, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0435, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0437, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0438, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0439, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0402, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0314, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.028, 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"home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1432, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1432, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0439, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0003999999999999837, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -720, "expected_home_runs": 0.2226, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "model_over_probability": 0.1996, "model_under_probability": 0.8004, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.151, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.849, "edge_over": 0.0434, "edge_under": -0.0776, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0434, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9194, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1996, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.184, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1832, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2027, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2035, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1766, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0465, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0434, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0278, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0473, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0204, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1832, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 110, "edge_direction_rank": 98, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.41, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.41, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2027, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2027, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7973, "palantir_projection_implied": 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.023599999999999982, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2226, 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"availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.065, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.991, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1334, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1335, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1335, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1299, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0427, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0429, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0431, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0394, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0306, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.028, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8839, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.031, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.062, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.199, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1839, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1831, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2306, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2016, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0566, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0428, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0277, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0744, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0454, "palantir_confidence_label": 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"2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -280, "expected_home_runs": 0.25, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2212, "model_over_probability": 0.2212, "model_under_probability": 0.7788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2914, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7086, "edge_over": -0.0818, "edge_under": 0.042, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.042, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, 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"recommended_edge": 0.0405, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.92, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1464, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1541, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1552, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1794, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1565, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0654, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0758, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0681, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0649, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0428, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0657, "palantir_confidence_label": 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null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1665, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1704, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.171, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.196, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1701, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0477, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0371, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0388, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0388, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0368, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", 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"suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 140, "edge_direction_rank": 123, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.181, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.181, "palantir_prob_under": 0.819, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0477, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1821, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1821, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0388, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.008899999999999991, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -735, "expected_home_runs": 0.2145, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1931, "model_over_probability": 0.1931, "model_under_probability": 0.8069, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8462, "edge_over": 0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0733, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0331, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9323, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.993, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1931, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1819, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1835, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.207, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1798, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0235, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0331, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0233, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0191, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0198, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0814, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1819, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": 124, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.004399999999999987, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1228, "model_over_probability": 0.1228, "model_under_probability": 0.8772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0323, "edge_under": -0.0672, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0323, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.031, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.062, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1228, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0147, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0246, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0549, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0806, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0314, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0323, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0758, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0905, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5687, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0246, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": 125, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.94, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.94, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1219, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1219, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8781, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0314, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.131, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.131, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, 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0.2324, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1404, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0701, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.1583, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1464, "model_over_probability": 0.1464, "model_under_probability": 0.8536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": -0.071, "edge_under": 0.0306, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.92, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1464, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1541, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1552, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1794, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1565, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0606, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.071, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0633, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0601, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0609, "palantir_confidence_label": 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"suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 148, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.62, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.62, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1568, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1568, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8432, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0606, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1583, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1583, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0601, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0005000000000000004, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1228, "model_over_probability": 0.1228, "model_under_probability": 0.8772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0306, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.031, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.062, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1228, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0147, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0246, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0549, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0806, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0297, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0306, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0775, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0922, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0922, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0116, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5687, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0246, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 147, "edge_direction_rank": 129, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.94, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.94, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1219, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1219, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8781, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0297, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.131, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.131, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0922, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", 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"valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.1219, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "hitter_id": 677588, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1099, "model_over_probability": 0.1099, "model_under_probability": 0.8901, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1099, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1609, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1875, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.163, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0604, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0299, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0809, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0921, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1075, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0921, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.083, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7833, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 155, "edge_direction_rank": 135, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": 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"valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006600000000000009, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1753, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1608, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.92, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1608, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1747, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1755, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1899, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0461, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0283, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0422, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0857, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0574, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1755, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated 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"estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.92, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1608, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1747, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1755, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1899, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0461, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0283, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0422, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0857, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0574, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, 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"fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0014, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03940000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "model_over_probability": 0.1972, "model_under_probability": 0.8028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0277, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0277, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9306, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.988, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.123, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1972, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1781, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1771, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2077, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1916, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1665, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0382, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0277, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0086, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0026, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1771, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 174, "edge_direction_rank": 153, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2077, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2077, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7923, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0382, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2196, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0026, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, 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"opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074, "model_over_probability": 0.2074, "model_under_probability": 0.7926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7466, "edge_over": -0.0558, "edge_under": 0.0173, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0173, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": 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"fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2324, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1296, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, 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"palantir_hr_prob": 0.2006, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7994, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0311, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2065, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2065, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0096, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02149999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1746, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8254, "edge_over": 0.0164, "edge_under": -0.0574, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0164, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9775, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.915, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1982, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1837, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.183, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2067, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1794, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0266, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0164, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0019, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0249, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.048, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.183, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 225, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, 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0.0249, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2209, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0044, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.991, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1806, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2112, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1835, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0282, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0142, 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0268, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0264, "model_over_probability": 0.0264, "model_under_probability": 0.9736, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0536, "edge_under": 0.0136, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0136, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.909, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.92, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0264, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0063, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0053, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0369, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0255, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0684, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0431, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0536, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0737, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0116, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": 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"hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 240, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.21, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.21, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0369, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0369, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9631, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0431, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0268, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0268, 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.065, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.991, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1627, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.159, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.018600000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 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"opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.991, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1552, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1388, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1379, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.141, 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"fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 293, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, 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"fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0569, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00739999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Riley 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.97, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.34, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.108, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.905, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.182, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1751, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1741, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1915, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1969, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0046, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0049, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0118, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0148, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.01, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.016, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0913, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1741, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0408, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1792, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1928, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2228, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1942, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0014, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0146, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0149, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0151, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0286, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.172, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1587, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0503, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0305, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0301, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0299, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0433, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.069, 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"fangorn_projection": 0.1881, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1881, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0299, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0204, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1686, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1552, "model_over_probability": 0.1552, "model_under_probability": 0.8448, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0371, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0371, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8987, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.991, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1552, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1388, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1379, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.141, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0513, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0371, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0535, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0587, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0623, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0712, "palantir_confidence_label": 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"fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2324, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1367, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, 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"lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 36.8, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091, "edge_over": 0.0766, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 36.1, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 9, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223, "edge_over": 0.061, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", 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