{ "date": "2026-05-24", "generated_at": "2026-05-24T10:55:30.127071", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-05-24", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 336, "matched_count": 318, "unmatched_count": 18 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 336, "matched_rows": 318, "unmatched_rows": 18, "over_recommendation_count": 138, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 6, "play_count": 62, "lean_count": 76, "no_play_count": 174, "average_edge_over": 0.0148, "average_edge_under": -0.0525, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 318, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": -255, "expected_home_runs": 0.2035, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841, "model_over_probability": 0.1841, "model_under_probability": 0.8159, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3065, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6935, "edge_over": -0.1334, "edge_under": 0.0976, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0976, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1945, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1663, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1198, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0671, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1512, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1559, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1663, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.123, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1512, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1977, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1389, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1602, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1616, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0376, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1127, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.06, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 37.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 37.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1512, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1512, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8488, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1663, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2035, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2035, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1602, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006099999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": -275, "expected_home_runs": 0.2035, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841, "model_over_probability": 0.1841, "model_under_probability": 0.8159, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2956, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7044, "edge_over": -0.1236, "edge_under": 0.0826, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0826, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1945, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1663, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0061, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1195, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0664, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1512, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1559, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1565, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1132, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1414, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1882, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1291, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1504, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1518, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0378, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0604, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 37.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 37.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1512, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1512, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8488, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1565, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2035, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2035, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1504, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006099999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 735, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.219, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967, "model_over_probability": 0.1967, "model_under_probability": 0.8033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1157, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8843, "edge_over": 0.0769, "edge_under": -0.112, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0769, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9874, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.185, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.982, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2277, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0726, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1303, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2202, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1918, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0105, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0681, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0146, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0593, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.072, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, 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"trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.93, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.93, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1303, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1303, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8697, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0105, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", 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"BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2367, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2108, "model_over_probability": 0.2108, "model_under_probability": 0.7892, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0546, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0546, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.095, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2453, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.191, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0765, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2223, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1937, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0403, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0891, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0348, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1553, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0216, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0661, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0375, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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0.2367, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0229, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, 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"no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8193, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1018, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.029, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1112, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1096, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0677, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0492, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0081, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0267, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0686, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1795, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1643, "model_over_probability": 0.1643, "model_under_probability": 0.8357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0544, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0544, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8193, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1018, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.029, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1112, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1096, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0677, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0492, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0081, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0267, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0829, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0287, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", 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"confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.164, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.94, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.53, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1811, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1797, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.056, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2071, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, 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"pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8745, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0858, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, 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"opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.095, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1324, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1626, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0528, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0912, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1809, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1577, 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"sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.2094, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889, "model_over_probability": 0.1889, "model_under_probability": 0.8111, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8674, "edge_over": 0.051, "edge_under": -0.0913, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.051, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1324, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1626, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0528, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0912, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1809, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1577, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0467, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0055, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0247, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1371, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0086, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0198, "palantir_confidence_label": 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null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0467, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2094, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2094, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0342, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0809, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Wenceel P\u00e9rez", "hitter_id": 672761, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.92, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.72, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.134, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1337, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0472, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0715, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1192, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0535, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.009, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0087, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1244, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0247, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0058, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3742, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0466, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 50, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0715, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0715, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9285, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0535, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1936, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0086, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0621, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Wenceel P\u00e9rez", "hitter_id": 672761, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.051, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.051, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.92, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.72, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.134, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1337, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0472, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0715, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1192, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0535, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.009, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0087, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1244, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0247, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0058, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3742, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0466, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 59, "edge_direction_rank": 51, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0715, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0715, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9285, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0535, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1936, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, 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"recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0503, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0503, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": 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"projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1158, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1123, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0403, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1078, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1076, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0423, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0271, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0306, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0596, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0351, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0321, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0633, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "hitter_id": 673237, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.1968, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786, "model_over_probability": 0.1786, "model_under_probability": 0.8214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1336, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8664, "edge_over": 0.0397, "edge_under": -0.0796, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0397, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9014, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.185, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.982, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.12, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1614, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0588, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1797, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1567, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0449, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0354, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0225, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0208, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0408, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0178, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0358, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0583, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 92, "edge_direction_rank": 80, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.53, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.53, "palantir_prob_over": 0.094, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.094, "palantir_prob_under": 0.906, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0449, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1968, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1968, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0184, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0633, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": 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"fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0407, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0504, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "hitter_id": 686555, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1293, "model_over_probability": 0.1293, "model_under_probability": 0.8707, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.943, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.0371, "edge_under": -0.0723, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0371, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0874, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0344, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0328, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1059, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1065, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0594, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0917, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0089, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0143, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, 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"hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1385, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1385, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1108, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8892, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0186, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.07799999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 660821, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "model_over_probability": 0.1767, "model_under_probability": 0.8233, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1352, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8648, "edge_over": 0.0368, "edge_under": -0.0714, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0368, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.35, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.07, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.41, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.01, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1797, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0635, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1769, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0109, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0411, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0398, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1392, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0054, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0638, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0392, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.172, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0628, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 108, "edge_direction_rank": 95, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.66, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.66, "palantir_prob_over": 0.129, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.129, "palantir_prob_under": 0.871, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0109, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1944, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0392, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.050100000000000006, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 660821, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": 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"valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.04630000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "hitter_id": 686555, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 960, "under_odds": -1745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1293, "model_over_probability": 0.1293, "model_under_probability": 0.8707, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0874, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0344, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0328, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1059, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1065, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0615, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0109, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0938, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.011, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.07799999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Paul Goldschmidt", "hitter_id": 502671, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": -945, "expected_home_runs": 0.181, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "model_over_probability": 0.1656, "model_under_probability": 0.8344, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9043, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1263, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8737, "edge_over": 0.0349, "edge_under": -0.0699, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0349, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.35, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.06, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1702, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1612, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.058, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1144, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1749, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0163, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0395, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0305, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0442, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0266, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0223, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1018, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0574, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard 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"value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.41, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.41, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1144, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1144, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8855999999999999, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0163, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.181, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.181, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0266, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.042899999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Paul 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.09, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1605, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0539, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1078, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.145, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1311, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0382, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0145, 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"damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 134, "edge_direction_rank": 118, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", 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"fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 138, "edge_direction_rank": 122, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.99, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.99, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0384, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0384, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9616, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0932, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1766, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1766, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0039, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.09710000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "hitter_id": 678882, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.1716, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1577, "model_over_probability": 0.1577, "model_under_probability": 0.8423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8769, "edge_over": 0.0303, "edge_under": -0.0651, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0303, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.164, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.45, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.79, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.74, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1631, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1574, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0562, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0919, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1674, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1472, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0355, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0357, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.03, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.127, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.04, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0276, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0198, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0557, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 139, "edge_direction_rank": 123, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.74, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.74, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0919, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0919, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9081, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0355, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1716, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1716, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0276, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0631, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.1947, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1769, "model_over_probability": 0.1769, "model_under_probability": 0.8231, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1422, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8578, "edge_over": 0.0298, "edge_under": -0.0645, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.09, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1605, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0539, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1078, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.145, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1311, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0393, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0134, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1463, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0403, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.016, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1061, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0532, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 140, "edge_direction_rank": 124, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.71, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.71, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1078, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1078, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8922, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0393, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1947, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1947, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0049, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.034399999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1947, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1769, "model_over_probability": 0.1769, "model_under_probability": 0.8231, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0298, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 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"sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.2127, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1916, "model_over_probability": 0.1916, "model_under_probability": 0.8084, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1617, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8383, "edge_over": 0.0235, "edge_under": -0.0634, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0235, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": 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null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1904, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1904, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0046, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.033, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Mitch Garver", "hitter_id": 641598, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1904, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1734, "model_over_probability": 0.1734, "model_under_probability": 0.8266, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0207, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0207, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "QUESTIONABLE", "availability_factor": 0.65, "active_roster_flag": false, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.078, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.61, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2066, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0656, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1903, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1758, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1537, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0376, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0539, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0135, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1517, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0344, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0046, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1173, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.44, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0646, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1903, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1903, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8097, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0376, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1904, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1904, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0046, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.033, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -655, "expected_home_runs": 0.209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1886, "model_over_probability": 0.1886, "model_under_probability": 0.8114, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8675, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1623, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8377, "edge_over": 0.0205, "edge_under": -0.0561, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0205, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.914, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0716, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1723, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0042, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0537, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0187, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1675, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0336, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0653, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0362, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2715, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.071, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 178, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1723, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1723, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8277, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0042, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.209, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.209, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.011, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0068000000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "hitter_id": 665750, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 910, "under_odds": -1465, "expected_home_runs": 0.1272, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1194, "model_over_probability": 0.1194, "model_under_probability": 0.8806, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9361, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0956, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9044, "edge_over": 0.0204, "edge_under": -0.0555, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0204, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0532, 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"valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0219, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "hitter_id": 665750, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 895, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1272, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1194, "model_over_probability": 0.1194, 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107.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0532, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0096, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.011, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0564, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0813, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0786, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0473, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0909, 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"damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 186, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", 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"market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.2237, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.175, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.825, "edge_over": 0.0186, "edge_under": -0.0575, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0186, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.078, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2009, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.179, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1867, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1624, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0318, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0191, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1807, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0524, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0656, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch 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0.2237, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0097, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, 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"no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8585, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1724, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1592, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0584, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1693, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1486, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0813, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0338, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.047, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0897, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0369, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0576, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0385, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1775, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0574, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", 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"palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0813, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1607, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1607, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0512, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.030100000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1023, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0972, "model_over_probability": 0.0972, "model_under_probability": 0.9028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0172, "edge_under": -0.0522, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0172, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0044, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0172, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0691, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0628, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0616, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0756, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0528, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0109, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0036, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady 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"fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0172, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1023, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0972, "model_over_probability": 0.0972, "model_under_probability": 0.9028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0172, "edge_under": -0.0572, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0172, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0044, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0172, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0691, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0628, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0616, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0756, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0528, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0109, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0036, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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"hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1023, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1023, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0172, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1023, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0972, "model_over_probability": 0.0972, "model_under_probability": 0.9028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0172, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0172, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0044, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0172, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0691, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0628, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0616, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0756, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0528, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0109, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0036, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust 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"palantir_prob_under": 0.9828, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0628, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1023, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1023, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0172, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "hitter_id": 686527, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1539, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8461, "edge_over": 0.016, "edge_under": -0.0555, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.078, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.025, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.68, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2055, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1855, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0686, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2331, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2041, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0395, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0455, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0255, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0254, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0731, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0441, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0676, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 199, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.49, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.49, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1995, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1995, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8005, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0395, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1936, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0191, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0204, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -500, "expected_home_runs": 0.164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1513, "model_over_probability": 0.1513, "model_under_probability": 0.8487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1951, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8049, "edge_over": -0.0507, "edge_under": 0.0154, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0154, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1452, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1431, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.051, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0791, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0568, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0589, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.201, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0951, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0598, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0591, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2141, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.05, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 202, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1229, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1229, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8771, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0791, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.164, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.164, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0598, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019299999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Rogers", "hitter_id": 668670, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1825, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1668, "model_over_probability": 0.1668, "model_under_probability": 0.8332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1457, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8543, "edge_over": 0.0153, "edge_under": -0.0551, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.68, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1123, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0777, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0465, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0671, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1037, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0844, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0014, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0392, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0738, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0506, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0481, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0478, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0257, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.077, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4173, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0458, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1487, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1382, "model_over_probability": 0.1382, "model_under_probability": 0.8618, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0132, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8658, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, 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null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0431, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "hitter_id": 665833, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.1779, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.163, "model_over_probability": 0.163, "model_under_probability": 0.837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.18, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.28, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1906, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1826, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0655, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1756, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1808, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0252, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0402, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0322, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1496, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0158, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0304, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.312, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0647, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.003500000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1975, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1792, "model_over_probability": 0.1792, "model_under_probability": 0.8208, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1604, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8396, "edge_over": 0.0125, "edge_under": -0.0518, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, 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"hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0679, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1591, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1626, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0076, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0417, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0141, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1661, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0375, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0054, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0041, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2076, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ernie Clement", "hitter_id": 676391, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 945, "under_odds": -1555, "expected_home_runs": 0.1142, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1079, "model_over_probability": 0.1079, "model_under_probability": 0.8921, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9396, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0924, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9076, "edge_over": 0.0122, "edge_under": -0.0475, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0122, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.07, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1104, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1107, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.109, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0623, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0147, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.015, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0953, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0125, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0145, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0133, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0478, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0386, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 230, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 2.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 2.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0334, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0334, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9666, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0623, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1142, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1142, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1108, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8892, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0151, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0774, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.1786, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1636, "model_over_probability": 0.1636, "model_under_probability": 0.8364, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7966, "edge_over": -0.0469, "edge_under": 0.0118, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0118, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.949, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1359, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1356, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.102, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1042, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1424, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1293, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1063, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0746, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0749, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2093, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1085, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0681, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.075, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0812, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0336, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0471, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 233, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", 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"fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03130000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "hitter_id": 665833, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.1779, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.163, "model_over_probability": 0.163, "model_under_probability": 0.837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8536, "edge_over": 0.0115, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0115, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0139, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0119, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0478, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0385, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, 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"fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0774, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": 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"confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.164, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.6, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1679, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1483, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0554, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1173, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1649, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, 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"opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1954, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1775, "model_over_probability": 0.1775, "model_under_probability": 0.8225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.008, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.59, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.04, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1023, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1261, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0407, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1267, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.119, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.05, 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.2043, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848, "model_over_probability": 0.1848, "model_under_probability": 0.8152, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8276, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": -0.0419, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9386, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.209, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1863, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1438, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2092, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1817, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0348, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0304, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1779, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0441, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0306, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0031, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0684, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 272, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1438, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1438, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8562, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0348, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2043, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2043, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0005, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0353, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1513, "model_over_probability": 0.1513, "model_under_probability": 0.8487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1903, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8097, "edge_over": -0.0467, "edge_under": 0.0062, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1452, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1431, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.051, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0751, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0528, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0549, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0911, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0551, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2141, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.05, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 271, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1229, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1229, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8771, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0751, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.164, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.164, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0558, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019299999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Coby Mayo", "hitter_id": 691723, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.1672, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.154, "model_over_probability": 0.154, "model_under_probability": 0.846, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": 0.0059, "edge_under": -0.041, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1556, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1403, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1019, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.052, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0433, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1399, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1276, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0075, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0078, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1473, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0462, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0205, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0337, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1563, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0512, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 273, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 2.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 2.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0433, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0433, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9567, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1048, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1672, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1672, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0126, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0922, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Coby Mayo", "hitter_id": 691723, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1672, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.154, "model_over_probability": 0.154, "model_under_probability": 0.846, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0059, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1556, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1403, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1019, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.052, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0433, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1399, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1276, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0075, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0078, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1473, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0462, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0205, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0337, 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"hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1672, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1672, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0126, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0922, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Gonzales", "hitter_id": 693304, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1040, "under_odds": -2000, "expected_home_runs": 0.0983, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0936, "model_over_probability": 0.0936, "model_under_probability": 0.9064, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0877, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0843, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9157, "edge_over": 0.0059, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.45, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.59, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.04, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1023, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1261, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0408, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1267, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.119, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0507, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0146, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0384, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0873, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0126, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0459, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0313, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3783, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0404, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 276, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 2.3, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 2.3, "palantir_prob_over": 0.037, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.037, "palantir_prob_under": 0.963, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0507, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0983, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0983, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0459, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.09659999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1011, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0962, "model_over_probability": 0.0962, "model_under_probability": 0.9038, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0057, "edge_under": -0.0406, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.949, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0512, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0092, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0104, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0427, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0753, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0706, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0393, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0813, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0902, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0904, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0478, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0152, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0101, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 279, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0199, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0199, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9801, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0706, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1011, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1011, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0905, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0199, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1695, "model_over_probability": 0.1695, "model_under_probability": 0.8305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2031, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7969, "edge_over": -0.041, "edge_under": 0.0044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0044, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.885, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1958, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1778, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0658, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1925, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1672, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0445, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0147, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0327, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2092, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0811, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0433, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0645, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 285, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.166, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.166, "palantir_prob_under": 0.834, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0445, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1857, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0384, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006099999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1011, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0962, "model_over_probability": 0.0962, "model_under_probability": 0.9038, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.949, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0512, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0092, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0104, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0427, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0753, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0723, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.041, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.083, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0919, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0921, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0495, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0922, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0169, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0101, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 290, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0199, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0199, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9801, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0723, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1011, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1011, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0922, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0199, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1011, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0962, "model_over_probability": 0.0962, "model_under_probability": 0.9038, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9472, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.0036, "edge_under": -0.0434, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.949, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0512, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0092, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0104, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0427, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0753, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0727, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0414, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0834, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0923, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0925, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0499, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0926, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0101, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 292, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0199, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0199, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9801, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0727, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1011, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1011, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0926, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0199, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1945, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1768, "model_over_probability": 0.1768, "model_under_probability": 0.8232, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1671, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8329, "edge_over": 0.0029, "edge_under": -0.0435, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0029, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.45, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.66, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.81, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1603, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0594, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1717, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1505, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0488, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0032, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0136, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0574, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0189, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0234, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", 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"hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0271, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0449, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0215, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 314, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 3.93, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 3.93, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0456, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0456, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9544, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0347, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.083, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.083, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0471, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0471, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9529, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0332, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0015000000000000013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1723, "model_over_probability": 0.1723, "model_under_probability": 0.8277, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": -0.0016, "edge_under": -0.0381, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9755, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.016, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.955, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1742, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1727, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0612, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1849, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1609, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0375, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0003, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0987, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0604, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 308, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1364, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1364, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8636, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0375, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1891, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0018, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03570000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -555, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8473, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1821, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8179, "edge_over": -0.0025, "edge_under": -0.0335, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0025, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.164, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1854, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0686, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2067, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2133, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1854, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.018, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0167, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1876, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0541, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0033, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0676, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 302, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.86, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.86, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2067, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2067, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7933, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.018, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2061, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0096, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.027599999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8268, "edge_over": -0.0025, "edge_under": -0.0378, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0025, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9288, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1251, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.131, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1004, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0456, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1222, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1217, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0551, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0492, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0798, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0485, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.058, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0448, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 300, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0585, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0585, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9415, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1217, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0466, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0751, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 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"confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0219, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0759, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0905, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0367, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0096, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0291, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0819, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0469, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0064, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0082, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0215, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 298, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 3.93, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 3.93, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0456, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0456, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9544, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0367, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.083, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.083, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0471, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0471, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9529, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0352, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0015000000000000013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 510, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.1753, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1608, "model_over_probability": 0.1608, "model_under_probability": 0.8392, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1576, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8424, "edge_over": -0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0366, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8538, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1377, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1509, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0513, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0563, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0262, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1632, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0475, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0089, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0142, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1157, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0505, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 295, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1076, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1076, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8924, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0563, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1753, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1753, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0089, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0474, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 820, "under_odds": -1255, "expected_home_runs": 0.1115, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1055, "model_over_probability": 0.1055, "model_under_probability": 0.8945, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9262, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.105, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.895, "edge_over": -0.0032, "edge_under": -0.0317, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0395, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0315, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, 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"recommended_edge": -0.0035, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.07, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.87, 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"Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1173, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0508, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 293, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.23, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.23, "palantir_prob_over": 0.134, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.134, "palantir_prob_under": 0.866, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0512, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2005, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2005, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0279, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.023299999999999987, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1100, "under_odds": -2215, "expected_home_runs": 0.083, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0796, "model_over_probability": 0.0796, "model_under_probability": 0.9204, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9568, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0801, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9199, "edge_over": -0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0364, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0219, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0759, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0905, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0377, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0106, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0301, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0829, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0479, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0074, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0072, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0215, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 291, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 3.93, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 3.93, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0456, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0456, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9544, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0377, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.083, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.083, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0471, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0471, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9529, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0362, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0015000000000000013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0041, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9288, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1251, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.131, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1004, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0456, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1222, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1233, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0567, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0508, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0814, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0482, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0596, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0448, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 289, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0585, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0585, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9415, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1233, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0482, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0751, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1695, "model_over_probability": 0.1695, "model_under_probability": 0.8305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0346, "edge_under": -0.0042, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0042, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.885, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1958, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1778, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0658, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1925, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1672, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0381, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0083, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0263, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0747, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0369, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1282, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0645, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 288, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.166, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.166, "palantir_prob_under": 0.834, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0381, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1857, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.032, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006099999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1115, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1055, "model_over_probability": 0.1055, "model_under_probability": 0.8945, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9301, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": -0.0044, "edge_under": -0.0356, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0044, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0395, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0315, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0123, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0238, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0827, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0861, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0704, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0784, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0888, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0504, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0818, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0272, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.012, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 286, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0238, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0238, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9762, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0861, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1115, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1115, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0281, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0281, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9719, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0818, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.004299999999999998, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1115, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1055, "model_over_probability": 0.1055, "model_under_probability": 0.8945, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0044, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0044, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.06, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, 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"damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 284, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1076, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1076, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8924, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0577, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1753, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1753, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.155, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.845, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0103, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0474, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1723, "model_over_probability": 0.1723, "model_under_probability": 0.8277, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": -0.0047, "edge_under": -0.0305, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0047, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9755, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.016, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.955, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1742, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1727, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0612, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1849, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1609, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0406, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1761, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0477, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0161, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0987, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0603, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch 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0.1891, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0049, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03570000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 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"2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.1793, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8125, "edge_over": -0.0301, "edge_under": -0.0054, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0054, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.96, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.165, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.158, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1167, 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"TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.1753, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1608, "model_over_probability": 0.1608, "model_under_probability": 0.8392, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.161, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.839, "edge_over": -0.0059, "edge_under": -0.0292, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8538, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.043, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1377, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1509, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0513, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0591, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.029, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0158, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1659, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0503, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0117, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.016900000000000012, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1607, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1485, "model_over_probability": 0.1485, "model_under_probability": 0.8515, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.897, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1945, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1663, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0065, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1196, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1512, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1559, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1613, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.118, 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682985, "event_id": "824839-682985-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 682985, "event_id": "824839-682985-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 693307, "event_id": "824839-693307-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", 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"hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 690993, "event_id": "824839-690993-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 690993, "event_id": "824839-690993-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 682985, "event_id": "824840-682985-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 682985, "event_id": "824840-682985-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 682985, "event_id": "824840-682985-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 656716, "event_id": "824839-656716-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 656716, "event_id": "824839-656716-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 656716, "event_id": "824839-656716-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 663837, "event_id": "824839-663837-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 663837, "event_id": "824839-663837-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 663837, "event_id": "824839-663837-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." } ] }