{ "date": "2026-04-01", "generated_at": "2026-04-04T23:07:36.914265", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-04-01", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 663, "matched_count": 663, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 663, "matched_rows": 663, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 155, "under_recommendation_count": 71, "strong_count": 49, "play_count": 67, "lean_count": 110, "no_play_count": 437, "average_edge_over": -0.0097, "average_edge_under": -0.0279, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 663, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 596142, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.0361, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0355, "model_over_probability": 0.0355, "model_under_probability": 0.9645, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": -0.1415, "edge_under": 0.1063, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1063, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0849, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0966, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0116, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0201, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0081, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0419, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.075, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1689, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0804, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1654, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1758, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1767, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1351, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0009, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.8375, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0189, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "hitter_id": 623993, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.0738, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0711, "model_over_probability": 0.0711, "model_under_probability": 0.9289, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7946, "edge_over": -0.1417, "edge_under": 0.1059, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1059, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2134, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.56, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.38, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0411, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0074, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0006, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0098, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0191, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0286, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0696, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1937, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1717, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.2054, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.2122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1842, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.2128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1432, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0006, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0019, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.607, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0074, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.0394, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0386, "model_over_probability": 0.0386, "model_under_probability": 0.9614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1682, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8318, "edge_over": -0.1353, "edge_under": 0.1013, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1013, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.12, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.046, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0324, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0142, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0542, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0601, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.083, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1197, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1279, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1415, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1727, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0909, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0067, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0201, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.013, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 596142, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.0361, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0355, "model_over_probability": 0.0355, "model_under_probability": 0.9645, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": -0.1384, "edge_under": 0.0987, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0987, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0849, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0966, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0116, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.02, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0081, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0419, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.075, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1658, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0773, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1623, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1736, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1739, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0989, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.8375, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0189, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "hitter_id": 669357, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.07, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0676, "model_over_probability": 0.0676, "model_under_probability": 0.9324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": -0.1324, "edge_under": 0.0977, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0977, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1988, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.1, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.45, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0641, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0115, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0142, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0388, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0523, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0794, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1612, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1359, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1885, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1979, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1995, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1477, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.2, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1206, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0016, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0121, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 24, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -525, "expected_home_runs": 0.065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0629, "model_over_probability": 0.0629, "model_under_probability": 0.9371, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.84, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1893, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8107, "edge_over": -0.1332, "edge_under": 0.0971, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0971, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1958, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0094, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0118, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0542, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0803, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1581, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1437, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1867, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1941, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1956, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1419, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1961, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1158, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0015, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2037, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0098, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "hitter_id": 623993, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -500, "expected_home_runs": 0.0738, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0711, "model_over_probability": 0.0711, "model_under_probability": 0.9289, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8, "edge_over": -0.1372, "edge_under": 0.0956, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0956, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2134, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.56, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.38, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0411, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0074, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0006, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0097, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0191, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0286, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0696, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1892, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1672, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.2009, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.2077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.2083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1387, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0006, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0017, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.607, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0074, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "hitter_id": 669065, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.0641, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0621, "model_over_probability": 0.0621, "model_under_probability": 0.9379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1842, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8158, "edge_over": -0.1284, "edge_under": 0.0941, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0941, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.182, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0786, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0546, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0357, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0239, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0516, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0773, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0912, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1389, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1119, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1359, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1887, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1548, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0993, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0113, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3218, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0222, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181, "model_over_probability": 0.2181, "model_under_probability": 0.7819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0939, "edge_under": -0.1288, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0939, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9773, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1895, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0744, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1733, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0458, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1124, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0653, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0755, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0549, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0491, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.192, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0741, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 28, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 46.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181, "model_over_probability": 0.2181, "model_under_probability": 0.7819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1202, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8798, "edge_over": 0.0931, "edge_under": -0.1334, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0931, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9773, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1895, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0744, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1733, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1116, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0645, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1247, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0747, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0541, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0483, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.192, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0741, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 29, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 46.0, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181, "model_over_probability": 0.2181, "model_under_probability": 0.7819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0931, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0931, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9773, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1895, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0744, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1733, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1116, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0645, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1247, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0747, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0541, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0483, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.192, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0741, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 30, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 46.0, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.0394, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0386, "model_over_probability": 0.0386, "model_under_probability": 0.9614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1656, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8344, "edge_over": -0.1338, "edge_under": 0.093, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.093, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.12, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.046, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0324, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0142, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0542, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0601, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.083, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1182, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1264, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.14, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1712, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1123, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1443, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0894, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0067, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0201, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.013, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 31, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.0236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0233, "model_over_probability": 0.0233, "model_under_probability": 0.9767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": -0.126, "edge_under": 0.0916, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0916, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0585, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.61, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0066, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0136, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0298, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0701, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1357, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.122, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1427, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.149, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1493, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0792, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.001, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.28, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.005, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "hitter_id": 669357, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.07, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0676, "model_over_probability": 0.0676, "model_under_probability": 0.9324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1886, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8114, "edge_over": -0.1285, "edge_under": 0.0886, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0886, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1988, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.1, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.45, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0641, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0115, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0141, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0388, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0523, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0794, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1573, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.132, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1846, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1941, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1956, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1438, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1961, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1167, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0015, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0121, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 39, "edge_direction_rank": 12, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0629, "model_over_probability": 0.0629, "model_under_probability": 0.9371, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1833, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8167, "edge_over": -0.1276, "edge_under": 0.0886, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0886, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1958, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0094, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0117, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0542, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0803, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1525, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1381, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1811, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1887, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.19, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0014, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2037, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0098, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 38, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.2454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176, "model_over_probability": 0.2176, "model_under_probability": 0.7824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8745, "edge_over": 0.0877, "edge_under": -0.1228, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0877, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.933, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.25, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.42, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1816, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1614, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0599, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.167, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1469, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0035, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0517, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0315, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0135, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0371, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0251, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0594, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 40, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 43.2, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1015, "expected_home_runs": 0.2454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176, "model_over_probability": 0.2176, "model_under_probability": 0.7824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9103, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1249, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8751, "edge_over": 0.0877, "edge_under": -0.1279, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0877, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.933, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.25, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.42, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1816, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1614, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0599, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.167, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1469, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0035, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0517, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0315, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0135, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0371, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0251, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0594, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 41, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 43.2, "value_rank": 8, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176, "model_over_probability": 0.2176, "model_under_probability": 0.7824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0877, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0877, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.933, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.25, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.42, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1816, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1614, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0599, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.167, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1469, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0035, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0517, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0315, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0135, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0371, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0251, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0594, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 43.2, "value_rank": 9, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "hitter_id": 666624, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.0588, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0571, "model_over_probability": 0.0571, "model_under_probability": 0.9429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8261, "edge_over": -0.1231, "edge_under": 0.0868, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0868, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1733, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0087, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0082, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0216, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1586, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1438, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1715, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1787, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1798, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1485, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1802, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1094, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4825, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0068, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.0236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0233, "model_over_probability": 0.0233, "model_under_probability": 0.9767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8575, "edge_over": -0.1248, "edge_under": 0.0854, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0854, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0585, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.61, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0066, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0136, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0298, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0701, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1345, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1208, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1415, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1468, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1478, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1183, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1481, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.078, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.001, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.28, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.005, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "hitter_id": 669065, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.0641, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0621, "model_over_probability": 0.0621, "model_under_probability": 0.9379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": -0.1248, "edge_under": 0.085, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.085, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.182, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0786, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0546, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0357, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0239, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0516, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0773, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0912, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1353, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1083, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1323, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1852, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0957, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0113, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3218, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0222, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 47, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "hitter_id": 673548, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.0701, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0677, "model_over_probability": 0.0677, "model_under_probability": 0.9323, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1805, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8195, "edge_over": -0.1192, "edge_under": 0.0838, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0838, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.223, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.77, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0728, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0361, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0198, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0417, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0817, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1452, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1141, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1508, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1853, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1588, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1052, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3676, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0182, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 49, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "hitter_id": 680728, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.0227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0224, "model_over_probability": 0.0224, "model_under_probability": 0.9776, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1332, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8668, "edge_over": -0.1155, "edge_under": 0.0802, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0802, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0522, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0315, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.007, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0072, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0717, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1307, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1064, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1304, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1376, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.104, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0662, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.52, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": 17, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "hitter_id": 671213, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.0802, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0771, "model_over_probability": 0.0771, "model_under_probability": 0.9229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1842, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8158, "edge_over": -0.1134, "edge_under": 0.0791, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0791, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1904, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0688, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0124, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0006, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0153, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0125, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0515, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0791, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.178, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1217, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1781, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1882, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1899, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1114, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0006, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0017, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3409, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.013, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 53, "edge_direction_rank": 18, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "hitter_id": 666624, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -635, "expected_home_runs": 0.0588, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0571, "model_over_probability": 0.0571, "model_under_probability": 0.9429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8639, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.17, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.83, "edge_over": -0.1199, "edge_under": 0.079, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.079, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1733, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0087, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0082, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0216, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1554, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1406, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1683, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1756, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1767, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1062, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.001, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4825, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0068, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": -255, "expected_home_runs": 0.2283, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2041, "model_over_probability": 0.2041, "model_under_probability": 0.7959, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3065, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6935, "edge_over": -0.1134, "edge_under": 0.0776, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0776, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0052, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1357, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0734, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1981, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.172, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1495, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1021, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1297, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3123, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1818, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1455, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0435, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1304, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0681, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 55, "edge_direction_rank": 20, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": -1115, "expected_home_runs": 0.2141, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9177, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1131, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8869, "edge_over": 0.0757, "edge_under": -0.1104, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0757, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9228, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.89, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1535, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1546, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1163, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0796, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1707, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0374, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0365, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0376, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1167, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0327, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0387, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.116, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2479, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 56, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "hitter_id": 673548, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.0701, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0677, "model_over_probability": 0.0677, "model_under_probability": 0.9323, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1763, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8237, "edge_over": -0.1158, "edge_under": 0.0752, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0752, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.223, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.77, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0728, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0361, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0197, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0417, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0817, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1418, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1107, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.182, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1621, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1554, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1018, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3676, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0182, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 57, "edge_direction_rank": 21, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": -1185, "expected_home_runs": 0.2141, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9222, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1131, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8869, "edge_over": 0.0751, "edge_under": -0.1149, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0751, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9228, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.89, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1535, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1546, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1163, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0796, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1707, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0359, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.037, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0321, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0387, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.116, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2479, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.2431, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2158, "model_over_probability": 0.2158, "model_under_probability": 0.7842, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1354, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8646, "edge_over": 0.075, "edge_under": -0.1148, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.075, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.09, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1962, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1667, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0632, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1327, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1776, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1551, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0081, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0554, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0227, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0143, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0627, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 59, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": 36.6, "value_rank": 16, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "hitter_id": 680728, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.0227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0224, "model_over_probability": 0.0224, "model_under_probability": 0.9776, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": -0.1146, "edge_under": 0.0747, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0747, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0522, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0315, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.007, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0072, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0717, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1298, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1055, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1295, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1359, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1367, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1031, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0653, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.52, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 61, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2141, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0744, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0744, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9228, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.89, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1535, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1546, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1163, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0796, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1707, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0387, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0352, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0367, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0314, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0387, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.116, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2479, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 62, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", 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"estimated_start_probability": 0.9873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2256, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1875, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1899, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0078, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1044, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0663, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0579, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0687, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2157, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0719, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 67, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 720, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2167, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1948, "model_over_probability": 0.1948, "model_under_probability": 0.8052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.122, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0728, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0728, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2256, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1875, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1899, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.007, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1036, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0655, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0962, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0571, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0679, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2157, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0719, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 68, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.2398, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2132, "model_over_probability": 0.2132, "model_under_probability": 0.7868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1354, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8646, "edge_over": 0.0724, "edge_under": -0.1122, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0724, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9828, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.29, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2057, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1641, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0647, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1411, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1507, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0649, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0233, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0244, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0311, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0142, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0642, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 69, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": 34.8, "value_rank": 22, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.0166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0165, "model_over_probability": 0.0165, "model_under_probability": 0.9835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": -0.107, "edge_under": 0.072, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.072, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.05, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": false, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup; inactive_roster; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0445, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0095, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0036, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0675, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1199, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1155, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1233, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1235, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.056, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0007, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.7433, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0086, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 71, "edge_direction_rank": 24, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "hitter_id": 694192, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.0599, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0581, "model_over_probability": 0.0581, "model_under_probability": 0.9419, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1596, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8404, "edge_over": -0.1072, "edge_under": 0.0718, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0718, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2041, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0478, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0086, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0102, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0174, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1479, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1175, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1567, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1642, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1653, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0874, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1922, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0092, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 72, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2966, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7034, "edge_over": -0.1091, "edge_under": 0.0717, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.29, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2057, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1641, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1411, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, 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"hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2057, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1641, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1411, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1507, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0007, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0639, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0223, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0254, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0301, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0089, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1158, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0642, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2007, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1843, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0673, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1461, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2131, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1853, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0203, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0749, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0585, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0087, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0873, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0595, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0669, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 77, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, 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favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2007, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1843, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0673, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1461, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2131, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1853, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0195, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0741, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0577, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0865, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0587, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0669, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 78, "edge_direction_rank": 20, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2193, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1969, "model_over_probability": 0.1969, "model_under_probability": 0.8031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0703, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0703, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8644, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2007, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1843, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0673, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1461, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2131, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1853, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0195, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0741, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0577, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0865, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0587, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0669, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 79, "edge_direction_rank": 21, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": -370, "expected_home_runs": 0.154, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1427, "model_over_probability": 0.1427, "model_under_probability": 0.8573, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.759, "edge_over": -0.1073, "edge_under": 0.0701, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0701, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8464, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 24.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1668, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1602, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1185, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0581, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0883, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0832, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0898, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2482, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.075, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0927, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.097, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0389, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1167, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.249, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0563, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 80, "edge_direction_rank": 27, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "hitter_id": 671213, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.0802, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0771, "model_over_probability": 0.0771, "model_under_probability": 0.9229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": -0.1098, "edge_under": 0.07, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.07, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1904, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0688, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0124, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0022, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0152, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0125, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0515, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0791, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1744, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1181, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1745, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1847, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1864, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1354, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1869, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1078, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0016, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3409, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.013, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": 28, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.2495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2208, "model_over_probability": 0.2208, "model_under_probability": 0.7792, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8531, "edge_over": 0.0681, "edge_under": -0.1078, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0681, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.97, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.82, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2086, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1809, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0678, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1645, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.021, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0559, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0282, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1522, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0235, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0365, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0118, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1953, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0674, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 84, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": 35.6, "value_rank": 19, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "hitter_id": 669221, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.0693, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.067, "model_over_probability": 0.067, "model_under_probability": 0.933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": -0.1025, "edge_under": 0.0681, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0681, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1668, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.3, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.38, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.43, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.28, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0392, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0094, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.009, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0226, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0715, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1469, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1303, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1601, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1677, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1691, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1695, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.098, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0013, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5092, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0072, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 83, "edge_direction_rank": 29, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.2552, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252, "model_over_probability": 0.2252, "model_under_probability": 0.7748, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.0677, "edge_under": -0.1076, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2234, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0719, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1757, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2293, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2004, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0182, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0659, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0296, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1569, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0429, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0461, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0713, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 85, "edge_direction_rank": 23, "value_score": 38.0, "value_rank": 13, "value_box_rank": 5, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.0166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0165, "model_over_probability": 0.0165, "model_under_probability": 0.9835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": -0.107, "edge_under": 0.0672, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0672, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.05, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": false, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup; inactive_roster; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0445, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0095, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0036, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0675, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1199, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1155, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1233, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1235, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.056, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0007, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.7433, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0086, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 86, "edge_direction_rank": 30, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2208, "model_over_probability": 0.2208, "model_under_probability": 0.7792, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.067, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.067, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.97, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.82, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2086, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1809, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0678, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1645, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0221, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0548, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0271, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0354, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0183, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0107, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1953, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0674, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 87, "edge_direction_rank": 24, "value_score": 35.2, "value_rank": 20, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.2552, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252, "model_over_probability": 0.2252, "model_under_probability": 0.7748, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8466, "edge_over": 0.0665, "edge_under": -0.101, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0665, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2234, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.072, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1757, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2293, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2004, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.017, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0647, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0284, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0417, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0461, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0713, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 88, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": 37.9, "value_rank": 14, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2552, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252, "model_over_probability": 0.2252, "model_under_probability": 0.7748, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0665, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0665, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0417, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0461, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0713, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but 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"v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.2105, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1898, "model_over_probability": 0.1898, "model_under_probability": 0.8102, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": 0.0663, "edge_under": -0.1013, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0663, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9547, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2013, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0674, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1284, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2024, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1757, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0049, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0778, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.061, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0522, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.16, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 90, "edge_direction_rank": 27, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.2105, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1898, "model_over_probability": 0.1898, "model_under_probability": 0.8102, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0663, "edge_under": -0.1061, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0663, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9547, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2013, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0674, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1284, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2024, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1757, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0049, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0778, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.061, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0522, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.16, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 91, "edge_direction_rank": 28, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -520, "expected_home_runs": 0.1002, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0953, "model_over_probability": 0.0953, "model_under_probability": 0.9047, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1925, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8075, "edge_over": -0.1047, "edge_under": 0.066, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4712, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1138, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.086, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0404, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0883, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1139, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1117, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0875, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0862, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1989, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0815, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0857, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0861, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0283, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0849, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2586, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0392, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 92, "edge_direction_rank": 31, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -735, "expected_home_runs": 0.2495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2208, "model_over_probability": 0.2208, "model_under_probability": 0.7792, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1497, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8503, "edge_over": 0.0658, "edge_under": -0.101, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0658, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.97, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.82, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2086, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1809, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0678, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1645, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0233, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0536, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0095, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1953, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0674, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 93, "edge_direction_rank": 29, "value_score": 35.2, "value_rank": 21, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2105, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1898, "model_over_probability": 0.1898, "model_under_probability": 0.8102, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0656, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0656, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9547, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2013, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0674, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1284, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2024, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1757, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0042, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0771, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0603, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0782, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0549, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0515, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.16, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 94, "edge_direction_rank": 30, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -655, "expected_home_runs": 0.0694, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.067, "model_over_probability": 0.067, "model_under_probability": 0.933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8675, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1612, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8388, "edge_over": -0.0997, "edge_under": 0.0655, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0655, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2489, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0755, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0366, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0215, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0203, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0524, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0657, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0855, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1143, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0912, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1301, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1651, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1452, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1386, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0812, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.152, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0187, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 95, "edge_direction_rank": 32, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "hitter_id": 694192, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -715, "expected_home_runs": 0.0599, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0581, "model_over_probability": 0.0581, "model_under_probability": 0.9419, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8773, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1564, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8436, "edge_over": -0.1045, "edge_under": 0.0646, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0646, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2041, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0478, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0086, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0102, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0174, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1452, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1148, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.154, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1616, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1623, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1626, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0847, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1922, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0092, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 97, "edge_direction_rank": 33, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": -275, "expected_home_runs": 0.2283, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2041, "model_over_probability": 0.2041, "model_under_probability": 0.7959, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2956, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7044, "edge_over": -0.1036, "edge_under": 0.0626, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0626, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0045, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0729, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1981, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.172, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1397, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0923, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1199, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1722, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1286, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1357, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0437, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.131, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0684, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 99, "edge_direction_rank": 34, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "hitter_id": 669221, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.0693, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.067, "model_over_probability": 0.067, "model_under_probability": 0.933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8385, "edge_over": -0.1011, "edge_under": 0.0604, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0604, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1668, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.3, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.38, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.43, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.28, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0392, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0094, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.009, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0226, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0715, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1455, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1289, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1587, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1664, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1677, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1681, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0966, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0013, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5092, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0072, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 102, "edge_direction_rank": 35, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 760, "under_odds": -1130, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1163, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9187, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1124, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8876, "edge_over": 0.0597, "edge_under": -0.0947, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0597, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9058, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1377, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0463, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0991, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1478, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.133, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0172, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0074, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0214, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0167, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0459, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 104, "edge_direction_rank": 31, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -395, "expected_home_runs": 0.154, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1427, "model_over_probability": 0.1427, "model_under_probability": 0.8573, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.232, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.768, "edge_over": -0.0983, "edge_under": 0.0593, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0593, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8464, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 24.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1668, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1602, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1184, "hr_prob_refined": 0.058, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0793, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0742, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0808, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2394, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0837, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.088, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0389, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1168, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.249, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0564, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 105, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": -1195, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9228, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8875, "edge_over": 0.059, "edge_under": -0.0988, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.059, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9058, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1377, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0463, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0991, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1478, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.133, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0179, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0207, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.016, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0459, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 106, "edge_direction_rank": 32, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1936, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.176, "model_over_probability": 0.176, "model_under_probability": 0.824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.059, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.059, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9058, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1377, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0463, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0991, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1478, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.133, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0179, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0207, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.016, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0459, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 107, "edge_direction_rank": 33, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -415, "expected_home_runs": 0.1454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1353, "model_over_probability": 0.1353, "model_under_probability": 0.8647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8058, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.222, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.778, "edge_over": -0.0946, "edge_under": 0.0589, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0589, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5952, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1298, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1385, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1071, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1202, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1001, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0914, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0852, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0877, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1053, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2141, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0467, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 108, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2745, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.24, "model_over_probability": 0.24, "model_under_probability": 0.76, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": 0.0582, "edge_under": -0.0982, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0582, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.987, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.28, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.215, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0694, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1802, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1572, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0155, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.002, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0246, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.276, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0685, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 109, "edge_direction_rank": 34, "value_score": 45.0, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.0694, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.067, "model_over_probability": 0.067, "model_under_probability": 0.933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1589, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8411, "edge_over": -0.0983, "edge_under": 0.058, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.058, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2489, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0755, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0366, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0203, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0524, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0657, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0855, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1129, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0898, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1287, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1637, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0996, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1372, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0798, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.152, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0188, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 110, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": -290, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7436, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2864, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7136, "edge_over": -0.0999, "edge_under": 0.0578, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0578, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 53.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 37.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 38.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.223, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1813, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0042, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1301, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0731, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1333, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0755, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1172, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2943, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1684, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1277, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.042, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1259, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1498, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0689, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 111, "edge_direction_rank": 39, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "hitter_id": 681807, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.0807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0775, "model_over_probability": 0.0775, "model_under_probability": 0.9225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.835, "edge_over": -0.0934, "edge_under": 0.0576, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0576, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.3667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.63, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.46, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0744, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0536, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0226, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0748, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0899, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1541, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0965, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1173, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1699, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1354, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0961, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.081, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0115, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0346, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.237, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0216, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 112, "edge_direction_rank": 40, "value_score": null, "value_rank": 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0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4686, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0467, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", 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"environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.07, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.144, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1427, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0504, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1463, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0518, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0264, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0251, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0287, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.19, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.05, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without 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"active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.07, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.144, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1427, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0504, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1463, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0525, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0257, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0244, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.028, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.19, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.05, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 115, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": 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"projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.07, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.144, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1427, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0504, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1463, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0525, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0257, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0244, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.028, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.19, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.05, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 116, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "hitter_id": 663698, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": -1365, "expected_home_runs": 0.1795, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1643, "model_over_probability": 0.1643, "model_under_probability": 0.8357, 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"hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0994, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0533, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0581, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0037, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0399, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0087, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4686, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0467, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", 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"value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.2157, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194, "model_over_probability": 0.194, "model_under_probability": 0.806, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0551, "edge_under": -0.0898, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0551, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.869, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.39, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2274, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.252, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0847, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1742, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2439, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2148, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0353, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0885, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1131, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1385, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.056, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0759, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1945, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.296, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0843, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction 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"implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9015, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8665, "edge_over": 0.0551, "edge_under": -0.0955, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0551, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.869, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.39, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2274, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.252, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0847, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1742, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2439, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2148, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0353, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0885, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1131, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1385, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.056, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0759, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1945, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.296, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0843, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear 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0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.1859, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1696, "model_over_probability": 0.1696, "model_under_probability": 0.8304, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7491, "edge_over": -0.0901, "edge_under": 0.0551, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0551, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8043, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.18, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1961, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0026, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1297, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1611, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1959, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1701, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0986, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0636, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0818, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2571, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.13, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0638, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0876, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0896, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0424, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1271, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1971, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0641, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 119, "edge_direction_rank": 41, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", 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"suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 124, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1163, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1129, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0841, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0415, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.112, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1687, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1434, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1468, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2574, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1756, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1477, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0273, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0818, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0392, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 125, "edge_direction_rank": 42, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "hitter_id": 807799, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": -1375, "expected_home_runs": 0.1706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9322, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0991, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9009, "edge_over": 0.0542, "edge_under": -0.089, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0542, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8452, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.54, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.94, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.53, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, 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"hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1339, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1421, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1427, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0941, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1429, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0006, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0097, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 128, "edge_direction_rank": 43, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.952, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.51, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0996, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1438, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0383, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0364, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0311, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0059, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.056, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 130, "edge_direction_rank": 48, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2127, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1916, "model_over_probability": 0.1916, "model_under_probability": 0.8084, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0537, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0537, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.952, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.51, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0996, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1438, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0383, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0364, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0311, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0059, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.056, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 131, "edge_direction_rank": 49, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "hitter_id": 641584, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 660, "under_odds": -935, "expected_home_runs": 0.0438, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0429, "model_over_probability": 0.0429, "model_under_probability": 0.9571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1316, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9034, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1271, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8729, "edge_over": -0.0887, "edge_under": 0.0537, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0537, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1117, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.05, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0856, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0103, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0176, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0075, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0437, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0757, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1241, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.046, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1213, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0559, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0005, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0425, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0169, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 129, "edge_direction_rank": 44, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "hitter_id": 807799, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 860, "under_odds": -1455, "expected_home_runs": 0.1706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1042, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9357, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8998, "edge_over": 0.0526, "edge_under": -0.0925, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8452, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.54, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.94, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.53, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0625, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0547, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0495, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0729, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0743, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0983, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0749, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0716, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3267, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0621, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 134, "edge_direction_rank": 50, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "hitter_id": 807799, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 860, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1042, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0526, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8452, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.54, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.94, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.53, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0625, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0547, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0495, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0729, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0743, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0983, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0749, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0716, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3267, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0621, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 135, "edge_direction_rank": 51, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "hitter_id": 666971, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.0752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0724, "model_over_probability": 0.0724, "model_under_probability": 0.9276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8454, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": 0.0526, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2166, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.03, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.71, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0547, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0098, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0119, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0518, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1355, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1053, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1502, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1585, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1596, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.16, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0808, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2924, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0104, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 133, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.2355, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2098, "model_over_probability": 0.2098, "model_under_probability": 0.7902, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.0523, "edge_under": -0.0922, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0523, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2442, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1909, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0761, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1956, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1928, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0381, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0867, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0334, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1569, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0638, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0755, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 136, "edge_direction_rank": 52, "value_score": 27.4, "value_rank": 25, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": -300, "expected_home_runs": 0.2203, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1977, "model_over_probability": 0.1977, "model_under_probability": 0.8023, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.75, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7241, "edge_over": -0.088, "edge_under": 0.0523, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0523, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2442, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1909, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0761, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1956, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1928, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0369, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0855, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0322, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0626, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0341, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", 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"hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2442, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1909, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0761, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1956, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1928, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0369, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0855, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0322, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0626, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0341, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0755, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.63, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.46, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0744, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0536, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0226, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0748, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0899, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1513, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0937, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1145, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1672, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1326, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0933, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0782, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0115, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0346, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.237, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0216, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support 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"v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "hitter_id": 671739, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.2046, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.185, "model_over_probability": 0.185, "model_under_probability": 0.815, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": 0.0499, "edge_under": -0.0898, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0499, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9333, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.91, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1908, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1766, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0644, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0143, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0557, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0415, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1345, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0606, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0348, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1406, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0638, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 143, "edge_direction_rank": 55, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.2225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995, "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8554, "edge_over": 0.0491, "edge_under": -0.089, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0491, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8996, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.31, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0729, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2048, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1778, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0156, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0774, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0375, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0544, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0274, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2453, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0722, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 35, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": 56, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "hitter_id": 671739, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.2046, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.185, "model_over_probability": 0.185, "model_under_probability": 0.815, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8685, "edge_over": 0.0489, "edge_under": -0.084, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0489, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9333, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.91, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1908, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1766, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0644, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0547, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0405, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0596, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0338, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1406, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0638, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": 57, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "hitter_id": 671739, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2046, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.185, "model_over_probability": 0.185, "model_under_probability": 0.815, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0489, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0489, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9333, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.91, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1908, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1766, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0644, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0547, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0405, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0596, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0338, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1406, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0638, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 147, "edge_direction_rank": 58, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "hitter_id": 676059, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -710, "expected_home_runs": 0.0776, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0747, "model_over_probability": 0.0747, "model_under_probability": 0.9253, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8765, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8467, "edge_over": -0.084, "edge_under": 0.0488, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0488, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1874, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0506, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0335, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0154, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0823, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1248, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1081, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1252, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1571, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1306, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0764, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3308, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0138, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 148, "edge_direction_rank": 48, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "hitter_id": 683734, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.0556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0541, "model_over_probability": 0.0541, "model_under_probability": 0.9459, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8635, "edge_over": -0.0877, "edge_under": 0.0485, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2026, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0497, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.009, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0105, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0488, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1088, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0921, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1328, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1416, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.093, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0639, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0006, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0097, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 149, "edge_direction_rank": 49, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "hitter_id": 641584, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 660, "under_odds": -995, "expected_home_runs": 0.0438, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0429, "model_over_probability": 0.0429, "model_under_probability": 0.9571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1316, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9087, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1265, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8735, "edge_over": -0.0887, "edge_under": 0.0484, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0484, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1117, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.05, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0856, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0103, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0176, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0075, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0437, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0757, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1241, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.046, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1213, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0559, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0005, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0425, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0169, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 151, "edge_direction_rank": 50, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.1454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1353, "model_over_probability": 0.1353, "model_under_probability": 0.8647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7861, "edge_over": -0.0869, "edge_under": 0.0482, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0482, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5952, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1298, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1385, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1125, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0924, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0837, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1152, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0775, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0913, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0352, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1055, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2141, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0468, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 152, "edge_direction_rank": 51, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.2225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995, "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8536, "edge_over": 0.048, "edge_under": -0.0825, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.048, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8996, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.31, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0729, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2048, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1778, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0145, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0763, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0364, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0276, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0263, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2453, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0722, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 35, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 153, "edge_direction_rank": 59, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995, "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.048, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.048, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8996, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.31, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0729, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2048, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1778, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0145, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0763, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0364, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0276, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0263, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2453, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0722, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 35, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 154, "edge_direction_rank": 60, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -840, "expected_home_runs": 0.2149, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934, "model_over_probability": 0.1934, "model_under_probability": 0.8066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8936, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": 0.0474, "edge_under": -0.087, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0474, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9216, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2137, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1874, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0699, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1842, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0042, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0677, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0414, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0115, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0382, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0694, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 155, "edge_direction_rank": 61, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.2149, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934, "model_over_probability": 0.1934, "model_under_probability": 0.8066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1422, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8578, "edge_over": 0.0463, "edge_under": -0.081, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0463, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9216, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2137, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1874, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0699, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1842, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0031, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0666, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0403, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0371, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0694, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 156, "edge_direction_rank": 62, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2149, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1934, "model_over_probability": 0.1934, "model_under_probability": 0.8066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0463, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0463, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9216, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2137, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1874, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0699, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1842, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0031, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0666, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0403, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0371, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0694, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 157, "edge_direction_rank": 63, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "hitter_id": 666971, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.0752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0724, "model_over_probability": 0.0724, "model_under_probability": 0.9276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": -0.0863, "edge_under": 0.0459, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0459, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2166, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.03, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.71, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0547, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0098, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0119, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0518, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1342, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.104, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1489, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1572, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1583, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0795, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2924, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0104, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 159, "edge_direction_rank": 52, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.0656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0635, "model_over_probability": 0.0635, "model_under_probability": 0.9365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.861, "edge_over": -0.0804, "edge_under": 0.0452, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1907, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0221, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0053, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.005, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0711, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1319, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1218, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1386, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.143, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1437, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0728, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0007, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7689, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0041, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 160, "edge_direction_rank": 53, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.863, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0789, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8892, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.161, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1688, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0585, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0902, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1601, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0516, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0192, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0421, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0183, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 162, "edge_direction_rank": 64, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0844, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8892, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.161, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1688, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0585, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0902, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1601, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0516, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0192, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0421, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0183, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 163, "edge_direction_rank": 65, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8892, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.161, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1688, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0585, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0902, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1601, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0516, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0192, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0421, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0183, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 164, "edge_direction_rank": 66, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 860, "under_odds": -1345, "expected_home_runs": 0.1603, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1481, "model_over_probability": 0.1481, "model_under_probability": 0.8519, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1042, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9308, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1007, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8993, "edge_over": 0.0439, "edge_under": -0.0789, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0439, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9222, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.93, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.149, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1226, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0471, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0756, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1157, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0286, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0448, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0184, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0115, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0285, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0855, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1992, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0468, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 165, "edge_direction_rank": 67, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 295, "under_odds": -370, "expected_home_runs": 0.1859, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1696, "model_over_probability": 0.1696, "model_under_probability": 0.8304, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2532, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2434, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7566, "edge_over": -0.0836, "edge_under": 0.0432, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8043, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.18, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1961, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0024, 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"Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8764, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1163, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1129, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.084, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0413, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.112, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.159, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1337, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1371, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1386, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0273, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.082, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0393, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 168, "edge_direction_rank": 55, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1603, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1481, "model_over_probability": 0.1481, "model_under_probability": 0.8519, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0428, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9222, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.93, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.149, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1226, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0471, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0756, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1157, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0297, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0437, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0173, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0104, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0285, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0855, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1992, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0468, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 169, "edge_direction_rank": 68, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 510, "under_odds": -710, "expected_home_runs": 0.2313, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065, "model_over_probability": 0.2065, "model_under_probability": 0.7935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8765, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8425, "edge_over": 0.0426, "edge_under": -0.083, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0426, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9878, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2219, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0717, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1195, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2085, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1811, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0444, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.058, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1632, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0152, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0172, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1143, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.071, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 171, "edge_direction_rank": 69, "value_score": 24.6, "value_rank": 31, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.1892, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724, "model_over_probability": 0.1724, "model_under_probability": 0.8276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1254, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8746, "edge_over": 0.0425, "edge_under": -0.0781, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9606, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.43, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.88, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1882, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1819, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0647, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1184, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1727, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0115, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0583, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0691, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0428, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.175, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0644, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 172, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1892, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724, "model_over_probability": 0.1724, "model_under_probability": 0.8276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8752, "edge_over": 0.0425, "edge_under": -0.0831, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9606, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.43, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.88, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1882, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1819, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0647, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1184, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1727, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0115, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0583, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0691, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0428, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"model_over_probability": 0.1724, "model_under_probability": 0.8276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0425, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9606, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.43, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.88, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1882, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1819, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0647, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1184, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1727, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0115, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0583, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0691, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0428, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.175, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0644, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 174, "edge_direction_rank": 72, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 845, "under_odds": -1425, "expected_home_runs": 0.1603, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1481, "model_over_probability": 0.1481, "model_under_probability": 0.8519, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1058, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9344, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1017, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8983, "edge_over": 0.0423, "edge_under": -0.0825, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0423, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9222, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.93, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.149, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1226, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0471, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0756, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1157, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0302, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0432, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0168, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.02, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0155, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0285, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0855, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1992, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0468, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 175, "edge_direction_rank": 73, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "hitter_id": 676059, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.0776, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0747, "model_over_probability": 0.0747, "model_under_probability": 0.9253, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1503, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8497, "edge_over": -0.0815, "edge_under": 0.0423, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0423, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1874, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0506, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0335, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0153, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0823, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1223, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1056, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1227, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0975, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0739, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3308, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0138, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 176, "edge_direction_rank": 56, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": -1320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1017, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8983, "edge_over": 0.0419, "edge_under": -0.0768, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0419, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9472, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 840, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1064, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0408, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0408, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9472, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1665, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.148, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0549, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0736, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1579, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1401, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0328, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0601, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0416, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.106, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0515, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0337, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1517, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0545, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 184, "edge_direction_rank": 78, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 835, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.107, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1029, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8971, "edge_over": 0.0402, "edge_under": -0.0805, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0402, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9472, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1665, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.148, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0549, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0736, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1579, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1401, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0334, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0595, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.041, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0331, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1517, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0545, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 186, "edge_direction_rank": 79, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.0656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0635, "model_over_probability": 0.0635, "model_under_probability": 0.9365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": -0.0794, "edge_under": 0.0396, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0396, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1907, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0221, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0053, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.005, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0711, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1309, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1208, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1376, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.142, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1427, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1106, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1429, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0718, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0006, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7689, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0041, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 187, "edge_direction_rank": 58, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.2302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2056, "model_over_probability": 0.2056, "model_under_probability": 0.7944, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.161, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.839, "edge_over": 0.0389, "edge_under": -0.074, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0389, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9185, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1885, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.071, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1384, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1821, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0283, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0514, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0218, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0154, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1952, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0702, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 189, "edge_direction_rank": 80, "value_score": 23.6, "value_rank": 35, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2056, "model_over_probability": 0.2056, "model_under_probability": 0.7944, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0389, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0389, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9185, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1885, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.071, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1384, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1821, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0283, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0514, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0218, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0154, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1952, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0702, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 190, "edge_direction_rank": 81, "value_score": 23.6, "value_rank": 36, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1542, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1429, "model_over_probability": 0.1429, "model_under_probability": 0.8571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2099, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7901, "edge_over": -0.0745, "edge_under": 0.0389, "recommended_side": "Under", 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"opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1949, "model_over_probability": 0.1949, "model_under_probability": 0.8051, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": 0.0362, "edge_under": -0.0759, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0362, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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0.167, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0662, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1798, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1569, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0404, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0521, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0083, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0405, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0211, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0018, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.226, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model 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"Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 214, "edge_direction_rank": 97, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "hitter_id": 656716, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 865, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1471, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1368, "model_over_probability": 0.1368, "model_under_probability": 0.8632, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.09, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1516, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.145, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0519, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0909, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1472, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1326, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0127, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0414, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0031, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0436, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0386, 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0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 720, "under_odds": -1055, "expected_home_runs": 0.1684, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.155, "model_over_probability": 0.155, "model_under_probability": 0.845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9134, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1178, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8822, "edge_over": 0.033, "edge_under": -0.0684, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.033, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1878, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2468, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0768, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0553, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2477, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2187, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0667, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0658, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1248, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1215, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1257, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1377, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0967, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1944, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.69, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0763, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 61, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 216, "edge_direction_rank": 99, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "hitter_id": 642851, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 720, "under_odds": -1115, "expected_home_runs": 0.1684, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.155, "model_over_probability": 0.155, "model_under_probability": 0.845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9177, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1173, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8827, "edge_over": 0.033, "edge_under": -0.0727, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.033, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1878, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2468, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0768, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0553, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2477, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2187, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0667, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0658, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1248, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1215, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1257, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1377, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0967, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1944, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.69, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0763, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 61, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is 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"implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": 0.0324, "edge_under": -0.0722, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0324, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.61, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1412, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1208, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0457, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1061, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1186, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.114, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0368, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0017, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0221, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0286, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0289, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0285, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0854, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0452, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 218, "edge_direction_rank": 101, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0403, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0005, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0159, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1841, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1638, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0608, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.103, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1789, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1561, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0485, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0326, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0123, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0333, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0046, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0845, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0602, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0067, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0976, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0622, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.1948, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.177, "model_over_probability": 0.177, "model_under_probability": 0.823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1414, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8586, "edge_over": 0.0299, "edge_under": -0.07, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0299, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9056, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1948, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1829, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1399, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2026, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1759, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0072, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0477, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0358, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1467, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0555, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0288, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2013, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 236, "edge_direction_rank": 115, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -970, "expected_home_runs": 0.0658, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0637, "model_over_probability": 0.0637, "model_under_probability": 0.9363, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9065, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8761, "edge_over": -0.0645, "edge_under": 0.0298, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2499, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.55, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0662, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0693, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0672, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0499, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0243, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0419, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0827, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0662, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0939, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0863, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0589, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.061, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0783, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0343, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0163, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.049, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3117, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0235, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 238, "edge_direction_rank": 64, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1971, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789, "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": 0.0296, "edge_under": -0.0696, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0296, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8788, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.07, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.19, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.189, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1821, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.065, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1203, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1818, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.029, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0397, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0328, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2537, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0645, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 239, "edge_direction_rank": 116, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -665, "expected_home_runs": 0.2237, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8693, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1643, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8357, "edge_over": 0.0295, "edge_under": -0.0697, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0295, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9779, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.2, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1774, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1737, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0618, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1896, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1648, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0475, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0065, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1701, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0416, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0061, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1273, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 241, "edge_direction_rank": 117, "value_score": 19.5, "value_rank": 44, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.1542, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1429, "model_over_probability": 0.1429, "model_under_probability": 0.8571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2045, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7955, "edge_over": -0.0699, "edge_under": 0.0295, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0295, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, 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"two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 865, "under_odds": -1360, "expected_home_runs": 0.142, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1324, "model_over_probability": 0.1324, "model_under_probability": 0.8676, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1036, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9315, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1001, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8999, "edge_over": 0.0288, "edge_under": -0.0639, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0288, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9466, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.122, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0413, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.057, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1119, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.11, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0106, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0064, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 247, "edge_direction_rank": 123, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -630, "expected_home_runs": 0.2227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "model_over_probability": 0.1996, "model_under_probability": 0.8004, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.863, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8347, "edge_over": 0.0287, "edge_under": -0.0626, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0287, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1806, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0677, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1315, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1601, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0394, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0365, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0097, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1703, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0417, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0108, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0671, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 248, "edge_direction_rank": 124, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996, "model_over_probability": 0.1996, "model_under_probability": 0.8004, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0287, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0287, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1806, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0677, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1315, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1601, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0394, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0365, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0097, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1703, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0417, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0108, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0671, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 249, "edge_direction_rank": 125, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, 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"hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0807, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0097, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0165, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0347, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0721, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0329, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1136, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0415, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0005, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0159, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, 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"damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 257, "edge_direction_rank": 131, "value_score": 19.3, "value_rank": 47, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2237, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.028, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.028, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9779, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.2, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1774, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1737, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0618, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1896, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1648, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.049, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.005, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1273, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", 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null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9308, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.73, 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0461, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1942, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.087, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 267, "edge_direction_rank": 141, "value_score": 22.4, "value_rank": 41, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.1934, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758, "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": 0.0277, "edge_under": -0.0628, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0277, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1084, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1049, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0777, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0376, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0941, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1037, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.054, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0397, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0432, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0704, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0472, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0444, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0257, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.077, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0369, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 264, "edge_direction_rank": 138, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1934, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758, "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0277, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0277, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1084, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1049, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0777, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0376, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0941, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1037, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.054, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0397, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0432, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0704, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0472, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0444, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0257, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.077, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0369, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 265, "edge_direction_rank": 139, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 855, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.142, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1324, "model_over_probability": 0.1324, "model_under_probability": 0.8676, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1047, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0277, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0277, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9466, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.122, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0413, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.057, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1119, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.11, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0477, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0173, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0215, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0053, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 266, "edge_direction_rank": 140, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.1932, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1757, "model_over_probability": 0.1757, "model_under_probability": 0.8243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1424, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8576, "edge_over": 0.0276, "edge_under": -0.0676, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0276, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9552, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1202, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0453, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0863, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0618, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0091, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0279, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1475, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0622, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0328, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.37, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0447, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 268, "edge_direction_rank": 142, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7685, "edge_over": -0.0685, "edge_under": 0.0275, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0275, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 42.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 27.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1964, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1348, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1372, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1765, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0446, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0577, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2394, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0377, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0645, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1332, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2003, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0656, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", 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"lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9851, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.66, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.81, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1861, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.069, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1477, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1751, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0325, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0277, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0059, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0215, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0051, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, 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"implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8548, "edge_over": 0.0273, "edge_under": -0.0628, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0273, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8995, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.12, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1734, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1612, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0588, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0935, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1788, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.156, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0569, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.023, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0108, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0284, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0056, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1175, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0358, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 272, "edge_direction_rank": 144, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "hitter_id": 673237, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1957, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0273, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0273, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8995, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.12, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1734, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1612, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0588, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0935, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1788, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.156, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0569, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.023, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0108, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0284, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0056, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1175, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0358, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 273, "edge_direction_rank": 145, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": -1435, "expected_home_runs": 0.142, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1324, "model_over_probability": 0.1324, "model_under_probability": 0.8676, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1012, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8988, "edge_over": 0.0271, "edge_under": -0.0673, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0271, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9466, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.122, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0413, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.057, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1119, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.11, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0483, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0167, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0089, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0047, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 274, "edge_direction_rank": 146, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.2243, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2009, "model_over_probability": 0.2009, "model_under_probability": 0.7991, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.168, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.832, "edge_over": 0.027, "edge_under": -0.062, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.027, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9573, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.49, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.16, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1832, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1755, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1889, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1642, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0459, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0093, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0016, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1731, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0097, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0976, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0622, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 275, "edge_direction_rank": 147, "value_score": 19.4, "value_rank": 46, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 840, "under_odds": -1300, "expected_home_runs": 0.0456, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0446, "model_over_probability": 0.0446, "model_under_probability": 0.9554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1064, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9286, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1028, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8972, "edge_over": -0.0618, "edge_under": 0.0268, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0268, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2402, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.12, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0178, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0677, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0865, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0944, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.054, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0577, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.106, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0387, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0593, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0199, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 276, "edge_direction_rank": 69, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.1932, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1757, "model_over_probability": 0.1757, "model_under_probability": 0.8243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": 0.0264, "edge_under": -0.0614, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9552, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1202, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0454, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0863, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.063, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0103, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0291, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0634, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.034, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.37, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0447, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 278, "edge_direction_rank": 148, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1932, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1757, "model_over_probability": 0.1757, "model_under_probability": 0.8243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0264, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9552, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1202, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0454, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0863, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.063, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0103, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0291, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0634, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.034, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.37, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0447, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 279, "edge_direction_rank": 149, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2418, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2148, "model_over_probability": 0.2148, "model_under_probability": 0.7852, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0261, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9308, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0731, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2203, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1919, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0297, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0391, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1877, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0541, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0032, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0808, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0721, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 281, "edge_direction_rank": 150, "value_score": 27.1, "value_rank": 29, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1409, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1314, "model_over_probability": 0.1314, "model_under_probability": 0.8686, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": -0.0609, "edge_under": 0.0261, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6532, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1247, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1154, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0838, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0709, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1154, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1121, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1214, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0676, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0769, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1914, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0769, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0809, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0802, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1353, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0413, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 280, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2328, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2077, "model_over_probability": 0.2077, "model_under_probability": 0.7923, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": 0.0259, "edge_under": -0.0659, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0259, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1991, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1786, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1554, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.184, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1602, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0264, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0173, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0032, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1812, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0216, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0654, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 282, "edge_direction_rank": 151, "value_score": 22.8, "value_rank": 40, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "hitter_id": 608701, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0924, "model_over_probability": 0.0924, "model_under_probability": 0.9076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1476, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8524, "edge_over": -0.0603, "edge_under": 0.0259, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0259, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.365, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.98, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1043, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1265, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0414, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0922, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1274, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1194, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0605, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0484, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0262, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1519, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0523, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0333, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0406, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 283, "edge_direction_rank": 71, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1405, "expected_home_runs": 0.1359, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1271, "model_over_probability": 0.1271, "model_under_probability": 0.8729, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9336, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.0256, "edge_under": -0.0607, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0256, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0682, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0123, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.014, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0815, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0749, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0333, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0892, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.02, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0004, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0135, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 284, "edge_direction_rank": 152, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2411, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "model_over_probability": 0.2142, "model_under_probability": 0.7858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": 0.0255, "edge_under": -0.0649, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0255, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9877, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.66, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.182, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1751, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0628, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1906, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1657, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0553, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0136, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1877, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0594, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.023, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1669, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0619, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 285, "edge_direction_rank": 153, "value_score": 26.7, "value_rank": 30, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "hitter_id": 680869, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.1778, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1629, "model_over_probability": 0.1629, "model_under_probability": 0.8371, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8667, "edge_over": 0.025, "edge_under": -0.0598, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.025, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.33, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.24, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.14, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0451, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1074, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0576, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0021, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0201, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1372, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0546, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0305, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.36, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0444, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 288, "edge_direction_rank": 154, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "hitter_id": 680869, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1778, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1629, "model_over_probability": 0.1629, "model_under_probability": 0.8371, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8674, "edge_over": 0.025, "edge_under": -0.0653, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.025, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.33, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.24, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.14, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0451, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1074, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0576, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0021, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0201, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1372, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0546, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0305, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.36, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0444, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 289, "edge_direction_rank": 155, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.0658, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0637, "model_over_probability": 0.0637, "model_under_probability": 0.9363, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1233, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8767, "edge_over": -0.0645, "edge_under": 0.0248, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0248, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2499, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.55, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0662, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0693, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0672, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0499, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0243, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0419, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0827, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0662, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0939, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0863, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0589, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.061, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0783, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0343, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0163, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.049, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3117, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0235, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 290, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063, "model_over_probability": 0.2063, "model_under_probability": 0.7937, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1757, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8243, "edge_over": 0.0245, "edge_under": -0.0592, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0245, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.964, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2413, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2553, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0877, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1686, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2534, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2247, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0132, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0595, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0735, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0429, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1942, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0869, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 296, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063, "model_over_probability": 0.2063, "model_under_probability": 0.7937, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0245, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0245, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.964, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2413, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2553, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0877, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1686, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2534, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2247, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0132, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0595, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0735, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0429, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1942, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0869, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 297, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "hitter_id": 681297, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.204, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1845, "model_over_probability": 0.1845, "model_under_probability": 0.8155, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1539, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8461, "edge_over": 0.0245, "edge_under": -0.064, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0245, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1501, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1445, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0519, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.122, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1456, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0099, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0155, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1591, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0144, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2027, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.051, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 293, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": -1105, "expected_home_runs": 0.1533, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1421, "model_over_probability": 0.1421, "model_under_probability": 0.8579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.917, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8863, "edge_over": 0.0245, "edge_under": -0.0591, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0245, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7499, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.22, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0961, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1246, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0395, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0307, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1302, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1213, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0869, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0215, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.007, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.6378, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0391, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 294, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1359, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1271, "model_over_probability": 0.1271, "model_under_probability": 0.8729, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0245, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0245, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0682, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0123, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.014, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0815, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.076, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0344, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0903, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0457, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0211, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0004, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0135, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 295, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9308, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0731, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.159, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2203, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1919, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0315, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0373, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1895, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0014, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0808, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": 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"projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1848, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1498, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0588, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1109, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1614, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1427, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0677, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0288, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1778, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0359, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.33, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.24, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.14, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0451, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1074, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0586, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0211, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1382, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0313, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0315, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.36, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0444, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": -1485, "expected_home_runs": 0.1359, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1271, "model_over_probability": 0.1271, "model_under_probability": 0.8729, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9369, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0991, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9009, "edge_over": 0.024, "edge_under": -0.064, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.024, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0682, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0123, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.014, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0815, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0765, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0349, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0908, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0462, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1031, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0216, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0004, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0135, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 303, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": -1170, "expected_home_runs": 0.1533, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1421, "model_over_probability": 0.1421, "model_under_probability": 0.8579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9213, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8862, "edge_over": 0.0238, "edge_under": -0.0634, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0238, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7499, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.22, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0961, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1246, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0395, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0307, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1302, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1213, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0876, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0222, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0119, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.6378, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0391, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 305, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2411, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "model_over_probability": 0.2142, "model_under_probability": 0.7858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0237, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9877, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.66, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.182, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1751, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0629, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1906, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1657, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0571, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0085, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0154, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1895, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0612, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0248, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1669, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0619, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 306, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "hitter_id": 643376, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.1937, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1761, "model_over_probability": 0.1761, "model_under_probability": 0.8239, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1468, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8532, "edge_over": 0.0234, "edge_under": -0.0637, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0234, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.62, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1546, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1679, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0573, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1859, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1617, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0765, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0019, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0152, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1518, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1946, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0564, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 308, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "hitter_id": 681297, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.204, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1845, "model_over_probability": 0.1845, "model_under_probability": 0.8155, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0232, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0232, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1501, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1445, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.052, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.122, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1456, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0393, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0112, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0168, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1604, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0544, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0157, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2027, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.051, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 310, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": -1375, "expected_home_runs": 0.0456, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0446, "model_over_probability": 0.0446, "model_under_probability": 0.9554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9322, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1039, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8961, "edge_over": -0.0635, "edge_under": 0.0232, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0232, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2402, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.12, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0178, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0677, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0865, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0961, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0557, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0594, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0727, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0404, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0216, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 311, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 740, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1533, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1421, "model_over_probability": 0.1421, "model_under_probability": 0.8579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.119, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0231, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0231, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7499, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.22, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0961, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1246, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0395, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0307, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1302, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1213, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0883, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0229, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0056, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0146, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0023, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.6378, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0391, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 312, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2266, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028, "model_over_probability": 0.2028, "model_under_probability": 0.7972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0226, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0226, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1848, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1498, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0588, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1109, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1614, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1427, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0693, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0046, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0304, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0734, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0188, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0375, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 315, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -565, "expected_home_runs": 0.2328, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2077, "model_over_probability": 0.2077, "model_under_probability": 0.7923, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.821, "edge_over": 0.0225, "edge_under": -0.0573, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0225, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0851, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.099, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0327, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0319, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1032, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.105, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0717, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0185, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0046, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0014, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", 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"hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 321, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": -995, "expected_home_runs": 0.1611, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1488, "model_over_probability": 0.1488, "model_under_probability": 0.8512, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9087, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1223, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8777, "edge_over": 0.0222, "edge_under": -0.0575, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0222, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0566, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0826, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0252, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0848, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.095, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0924, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.07, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.044, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0584, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0248, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 322, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": -1060, "expected_home_runs": 0.1611, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1488, "model_over_probability": 0.1488, "model_under_probability": 0.8512, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9138, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1217, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8783, "edge_over": 0.0222, "edge_under": -0.0626, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0222, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0566, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0826, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0252, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0848, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.095, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0924, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.07, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.044, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0584, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0248, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 323, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1611, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1488, "model_over_probability": 0.1488, "model_under_probability": 0.8512, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0222, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0222, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0566, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0826, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0252, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0848, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.095, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0924, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.07, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.044, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0584, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0248, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 324, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.2411, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "model_over_probability": 0.2142, "model_under_probability": 0.7858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": 0.0219, "edge_under": -0.0567, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0219, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9877, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.66, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.182, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1751, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0629, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1906, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1657, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0589, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0103, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0172, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1913, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0266, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1669, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0619, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 325, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "hitter_id": 681297, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.204, 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"likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9323, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2164, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1881, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0705, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1475, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1768, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0206, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0483, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.02, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1675, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0336, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0087, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.191, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0164, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0493, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0326, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 328, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, 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"historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.19, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1871, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1766, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0638, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1196, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1819, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1585, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0673, 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"damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 330, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian 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"platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9549, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1312, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1184, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0438, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1174, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1133, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0583, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0355, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0483, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1661, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0808, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0493, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0534, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 331, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2266, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2028, "model_over_probability": 0.2028, "model_under_probability": 0.7972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1757, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8243, "edge_over": 0.021, "edge_under": -0.0557, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.021, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1848, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1498, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0588, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1109, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1614, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1427, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0709, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.003, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.032, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.075, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0396, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0391, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 332, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.1577, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1459, "model_over_probability": 0.1459, "model_under_probability": 0.8541, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1202, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8798, "edge_over": 0.0209, "edge_under": -0.0612, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0209, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0662, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0748, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0498, "hr_prob_refined": 0.033, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.085, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0828, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0662, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.094, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.04, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0111, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0502, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0752, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0588, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.031, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0164, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0493, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0326, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 333, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1577, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1459, "model_over_probability": 0.1459, "model_under_probability": 0.8541, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0209, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0209, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0662, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0748, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0498, "hr_prob_refined": 0.033, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.085, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0828, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0662, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.094, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.04, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0111, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0502, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0752, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0588, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.031, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0164, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0493, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0326, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 334, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "hitter_id": 686555, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": -1430, "expected_home_runs": 0.1348, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1261, "model_over_probability": 0.1261, "model_under_probability": 0.8739, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9346, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1013, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8987, "edge_over": 0.0208, "edge_under": -0.0607, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0208, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.72, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0851, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.099, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0328, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0319, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1032, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.105, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0734, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0202, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.34, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0324, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 335, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "hitter_id": 686555, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1348, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1261, "model_over_probability": 0.1261, "model_under_probability": 0.8739, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0208, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0208, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.72, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.22, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0851, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.099, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0328, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0319, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1032, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.105, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0734, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0202, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.34, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0324, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support 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"recommended_edge": 0.0204, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9323, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2164, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1881, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0705, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1475, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1768, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0469, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0186, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1689, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0073, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2164, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1881, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0705, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1475, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1768, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0469, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0186, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1689, 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"ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1661, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1414, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0536, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0387, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1296, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1209, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1106, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0168, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0079, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1488, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2771, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0531, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard 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"value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1718, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8282, "edge_over": 0.02, "edge_under": -0.0597, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.02, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1739, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2156, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1875, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0552, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0213, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0047, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1777, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0089, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3239, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 344, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.208, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1878, "model_over_probability": 0.1878, "model_under_probability": 0.8122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1624, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8376, "edge_over": 0.0197, "edge_under": -0.0545, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0197, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9549, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1312, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1184, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0438, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1174, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1133, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0597, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0369, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0497, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1674, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0822, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0507, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0538, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0548, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0852, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 349, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.208, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1878, "model_over_probability": 0.1878, "model_under_probability": 0.8122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0197, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0197, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9549, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1312, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1184, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0438, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1174, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1133, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0597, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0369, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0497, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1674, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0822, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0507, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0538, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0548, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0852, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 350, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": -1050, "expected_home_runs": 0.1591, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1471, "model_over_probability": 0.1471, "model_under_probability": 0.8529, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1225, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8775, "edge_over": 0.0197, "edge_under": -0.0601, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0197, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.39, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1225, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1302, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0343, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1257, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1184, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0931, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0049, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.127, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3056, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0444, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 347, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1591, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1471, "model_over_probability": 0.1471, "model_under_probability": 0.8529, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0197, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0197, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.39, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1225, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1302, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0343, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1257, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1184, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0931, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0049, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.127, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3056, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0444, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 348, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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0.0819, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1625, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1436, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0181, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0453, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0431, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0996, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0625, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0436, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0502, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", 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0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0829, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1353, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0413, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": 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110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1919, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0659, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1753, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.068, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0232, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0321, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.214, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0805, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0398, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but 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"projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1739, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2156, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1875, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0584, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0245, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0079, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1808, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0472, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0057, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3239, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 33, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 382, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1739, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2156, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1875, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0584, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0245, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0079, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1808, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0472, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0057, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3239, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without 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"unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 400, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.1731, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1589, "model_over_probability": 0.1589, "model_under_probability": 0.8411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": 0.016, "edge_under": -0.0558, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.17, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.63, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.1, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.19, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1883, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1505, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0593, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1302, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1635, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1443, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0127, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0454, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0076, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0014, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.205, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0588, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 395, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0297, "model_over_probability": 0.0297, "model_under_probability": 0.9703, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0503, "edge_under": 0.0153, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9087, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0301, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0072, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0062, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0696, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0716, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0499, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0728, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0513, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0104, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 404, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2099, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7901, "edge_over": -0.0507, "edge_under": 0.0151, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7105, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.34, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.2, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1762, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1503, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0576, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1491, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1639, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1446, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0683, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0412, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0671, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1104, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0535, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0752, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0728, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1054, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.056, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 405, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1809, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1655, "model_over_probability": 0.1655, "model_under_probability": 0.8345, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8548, "edge_over": 0.0151, "edge_under": -0.0506, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7943, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1357, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0793, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1583, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1405, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0711, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.035, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0147, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0436, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.322, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0442, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 406, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1809, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1655, "model_over_probability": 0.1655, "model_under_probability": 0.8345, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7943, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", 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"hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1878, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0541, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0311, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0026, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0913, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0676, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 414, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "hitter_id": 666158, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0309, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0304, "model_over_probability": 0.0304, "model_under_probability": 0.9696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0496, "edge_under": 0.0146, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2008, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.59, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.14, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0244, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0058, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0052, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0236, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0677, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0737, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0556, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0742, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0564, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0047, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 94, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 416, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1000, "expected_home_runs": 0.1508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14, "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8784, "edge_over": 0.0142, "edge_under": -0.0491, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0142, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7954, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.77, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0513, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0813, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0242, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0903, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0745, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0445, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0576, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0258, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0237, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 421, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1065, "expected_home_runs": 0.1508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14, "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9142, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.879, "edge_over": 0.0142, "edge_under": -0.0542, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0142, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7954, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.77, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0513, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0813, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0242, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0903, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0745, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0445, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0576, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0258, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0237, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 422, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -440, "expected_home_runs": 0.266, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2336, "model_over_probability": 0.2336, "model_under_probability": 0.7664, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2124, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7876, "edge_over": 0.0138, "edge_under": -0.0484, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0138, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.15, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.22, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1728, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0616, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.164, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0558, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0455, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.047, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2183, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0903, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0477, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0489, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.128, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.28, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0602, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 427, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14, "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0134, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0134, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7954, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.77, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0513, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0813, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0242, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0911, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0753, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0453, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0584, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0323, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0266, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, 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0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.109, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.056, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0277, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0299, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.029, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2016, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1505, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.163, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0382, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0129, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0594, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0257, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0659, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 448, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "hitter_id": 666149, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, 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"projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.18, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.28, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1747, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1729, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0612, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1909, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1659, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0229, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0368, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.035, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0087, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.053, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.028, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", 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"estimated_start_probability": 0.9813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.39, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1055, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1096, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, 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"no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0942, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1006, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0346, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1051, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0483, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0101, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0901, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0129, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0129, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0129, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0146, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0955, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0342, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 482, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0297, "model_over_probability": 0.0297, "model_under_probability": 0.9703, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0503, "edge_under": 0.0103, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0103, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9087, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0301, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0072, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0062, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0696, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0716, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0499, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0728, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0513, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0104, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 484, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1804, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1651, "model_over_probability": 0.1651, "model_under_probability": 0.8349, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": 0.0101, "edge_under": -0.0502, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0101, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.195, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1243, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1791, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0307, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.04, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1546, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0513, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0241, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2805, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 487, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 790, "under_odds": -1190, "expected_home_runs": 0.1306, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1224, "model_over_probability": 0.1224, "model_under_probability": 0.8776, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9225, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1086, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8914, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": -0.0449, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8715, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.18, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.74, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0926, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1064, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0354, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0435, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1109, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1094, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0689, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0198, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0829, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2564, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.035, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 488, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "hitter_id": 516782, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 925, "under_odds": -1500, "expected_home_runs": 0.1137, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1075, "model_over_probability": 0.1075, "model_under_probability": 0.8925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0976, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9375, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9057, "edge_over": 0.0099, "edge_under": -0.045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0099, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7058, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1115, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1114, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0836, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0392, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0309, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1135, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.111, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0667, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0139, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0138, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0973, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0134, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0278, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0833, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0389, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 490, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "hitter_id": 666158, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0309, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0304, "model_over_probability": 0.0304, "model_under_probability": 0.9696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0496, "edge_under": 0.0096, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2008, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.59, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.14, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0244, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0058, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0052, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0236, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0677, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0737, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0556, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0742, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0564, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0047, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 94, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 492, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2165, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "model_over_probability": 0.1947, "model_under_probability": 0.8053, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1788, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8212, "edge_over": 0.0095, "edge_under": -0.0454, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0095, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2145, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1876, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0704, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.216, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2228, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1942, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0308, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0293, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0024, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1843, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0506, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0376, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 497, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_id": 608324, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1836, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1677, "model_over_probability": 0.1677, "model_under_probability": 0.8323, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": 0.009, "edge_under": -0.0494, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9862, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.3, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.23, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.41, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1548, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1459, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0526, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1107, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1581, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1403, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0039, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0128, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0519, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0184, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1805, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0521, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 499, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -720, "expected_home_runs": 0.1804, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1651, "model_over_probability": 0.1651, "model_under_probability": 0.8349, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.151, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.849, "edge_over": 0.0089, "edge_under": -0.0431, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.195, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1243, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1791, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0319, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0388, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0268, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0229, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2805, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 505, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1804, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1651, "model_over_probability": 0.1651, "model_under_probability": 0.8349, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0089, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.195, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1243, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1791, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0319, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0388, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0268, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0229, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1115, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1114, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0836, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0392, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0309, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1135, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.111, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0681, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0125, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0124, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0987, 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0372, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0365, "model_over_probability": 0.0365, "model_under_probability": 0.9635, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0435, "edge_under": 0.0085, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", 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null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5408, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.34, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1429, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1424, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0506, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0944, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1479, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1331, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0765, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0285, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1698, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.064, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0378, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 525, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "hitter_id": 516782, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": -1585, "expected_home_runs": 0.1137, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1075, "model_over_probability": 0.1075, "model_under_probability": 0.8925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9407, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9043, "edge_over": 0.008, "edge_under": -0.0482, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7058, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1115, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1114, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0836, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0392, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0309, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1135, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.111, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0686, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.012, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0119, 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": 0.0075, "edge_under": -0.0475, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1761, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0624, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1507, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2131, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1852, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0014, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0268, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0289, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0638, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0359, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0619, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", 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"suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 539, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -560, 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"hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0637, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0493, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0801, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0339, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0502, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0457, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 540, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1929, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1754, "model_over_probability": 0.1754, "model_under_probability": 0.8246, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0073, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0073, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9413, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0568, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1639, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1446, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0661, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0072, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1675, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0613, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0235, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1061, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1613, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0562, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": 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"recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1761, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0624, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1507, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2131, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1852, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0257, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0278, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.15, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0348, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0619, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 547, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0064, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1761, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0624, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1507, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2131, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1852, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0257, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0278, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.15, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0348, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0619, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 548, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 660821, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1042, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.099, "model_over_probability": 0.099, "model_under_probability": 0.901, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1352, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8648, "edge_over": -0.0409, "edge_under": 0.0063, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0063, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4673, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.41, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.01, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1015, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1084, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0374, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.115, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1118, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0685, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0384, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0315, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0562, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0249, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0281, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0831, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.172, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0368, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 551, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2593, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2284, "model_over_probability": 0.2284, "model_under_probability": 0.7716, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9855, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.59, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.71, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.04, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1693, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1593, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1166, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0581, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1294, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1697, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.149, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0928, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0529, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0629, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1056, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0672, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0732, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0384, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1152, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2847, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0566, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 555, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.1556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1441, "model_over_probability": 0.1441, "model_under_probability": 0.8559, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8667, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": -0.041, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9204, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1002, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1024, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0358, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0986, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1024, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0805, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0377, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0355, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1375, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0603, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0345, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0355, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0257, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0772, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3506, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0354, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 552, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1441, "model_over_probability": 0.1441, "model_under_probability": 0.8559, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8674, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": -0.0465, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9204, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1002, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1024, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0358, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0986, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1024, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0805, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0377, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0355, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1375, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0603, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0345, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0355, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0257, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0772, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3506, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0354, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 553, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1441, "model_over_probability": 0.1441, "model_under_probability": 0.8559, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9204, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1002, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1024, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0358, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0986, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1024, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0805, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0377, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0355, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1375, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0603, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0345, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0355, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0257, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0772, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3506, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0354, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is 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"same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.26, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.12, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.83, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1886, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1631, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0615, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1476, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1705, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1496, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0342, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0187, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0654, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0322, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1157, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1993, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0607, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9413, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0568, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1639, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1446, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0675, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0058, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0194, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1689, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0056, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0249, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1061, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1613, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0562, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 561, 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"recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.12, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.99, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.02, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1344, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1352, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1019, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0477, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0711, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0206, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0198, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1542, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0267, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0337, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.34, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0469, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 560, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2045, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7955, "edge_over": -0.0461, "edge_under": 0.0057, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7105, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.34, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.2, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1762, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1503, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0576, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1491, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1639, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1446, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0637, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0366, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0625, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0682, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0352, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1055, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.056, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 562, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "hitter_id": 666181, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.1781, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1631, "model_over_probability": 0.1631, "model_under_probability": 0.8369, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1514, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8486, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0461, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.65, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.13, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.96, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1872, 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"source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1064, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1271, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0416, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0277, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.132, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1224, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0886, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0099, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0108, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0061, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2229, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0412, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 564, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "hitter_id": 624641, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -855, "expected_home_runs": 0.1045, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0992, "model_over_probability": 0.0992, "model_under_probability": 0.9008, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8953, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8649, "edge_over": -0.0407, "edge_under": 0.0055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4168, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.77, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0996, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0371, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1064, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0814, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0403, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0324, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0566, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0341, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0291, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0335, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0825, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0363, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 567, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2111, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1903, "model_over_probability": 0.1903, "model_under_probability": 0.8097, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8218, "edge_over": 0.0051, "edge_under": -0.0443, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0051, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.163, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.192, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1769, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0647, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1836, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1599, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0633, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0083, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1844, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0253, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0492, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0639, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 572, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2008, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1819, "model_over_probability": 0.1819, "model_under_probability": 0.8181, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1703, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8297, "edge_over": 0.0049, "edge_under": -0.044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0049, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9272, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1839, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1757, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0631, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1442, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1951, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1694, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0328, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1762, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0477, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 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"likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.12, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.99, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.02, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1344, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1352, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1019, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0477, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0723, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0218, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.021, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1554, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0543, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0279, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0337, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.34, 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"source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.12, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.99, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.02, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1344, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1352, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1019, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0477, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0723, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0218, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.021, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1554, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0543, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0279, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0337, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.34, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0469, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", 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"strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2081, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879, "model_over_probability": 0.1879, "model_under_probability": 0.8121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0044, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0044, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.26, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.12, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.83, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1886, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1631, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0615, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1476, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1705, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1496, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0359, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0051, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0204, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0339, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1157, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1993, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0607, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 583, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.2593, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2284, "model_over_probability": 0.2284, "model_under_probability": 0.7716, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2169, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7831, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0397, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9855, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.59, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.71, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.04, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1693, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1593, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1166, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0581, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1294, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1697, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.149, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0953, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0554, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0654, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2232, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0697, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0757, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0384, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1151, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2847, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0566, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 591, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2383, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7998, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0439, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1648, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1596, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0572, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1737, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.152, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0435, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0487, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.09, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0563, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1172, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3777, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0562, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 592, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.1741, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1598, "model_over_probability": 0.1598, "model_under_probability": 0.8402, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0036, "edge_under": -0.0435, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1621, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1572, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0561, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1687, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1482, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0344, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0059, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.001, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.008, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1158, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0555, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 593, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.1644, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516, "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8575, "edge_over": 0.0035, "edge_under": -0.0429, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0035, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8487, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.79, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.99, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1201, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1161, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0415, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0831, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.114, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.065, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.032, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1475, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0622, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0341, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2884, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.041, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 594, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "hitter_id": 669364, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0372, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0365, "model_over_probability": 0.0365, "model_under_probability": 0.9635, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0435, "edge_under": 0.0035, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0035, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8831, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0489, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0476, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0171, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0733, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0892, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0661, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0311, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0324, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0167, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 595, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 682663, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -765, "expected_home_runs": 0.1722, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1582, "model_over_probability": 0.1582, "model_under_probability": 0.8418, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8844, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1491, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8509, "edge_over": 0.0032, "edge_under": -0.0426, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9112, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.82, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1396, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0922, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1467, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1322, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0628, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0214, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0154, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0228, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2679, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0479, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 596, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -340, "expected_home_runs": 0.2539, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2242, "model_over_probability": 0.2242, "model_under_probability": 0.7758, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2566, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7434, "edge_over": -0.0425, "edge_under": 0.0031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 40.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 29.84, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2068, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1858, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0032, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1351, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0703, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1696, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1842, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0971, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0599, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0809, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2635, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0876, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0825, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.044, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.132, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.11, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0671, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 601, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.1677, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1544, "model_over_probability": 0.1544, "model_under_probability": 0.8456, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8542, "edge_over": 0.0029, "edge_under": -0.042, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0029, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1813, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1543, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2069, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1796, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0028, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0298, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1511, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0554, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0276, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0281, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.063, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 606, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -565, "expected_home_runs": 0.2081, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879, "model_over_probability": 0.1879, "model_under_probability": 0.8121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.821, "edge_over": 0.0027, "edge_under": -0.0375, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0027, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.26, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.12, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.83, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1886, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1631, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0615, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1476, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1705, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1496, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0376, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0034, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0221, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1844, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0688, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0147, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0356, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1157, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1993, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0607, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 611, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.11, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0386, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1089, 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0093, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1158, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0555, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without 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"hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.114, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0662, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0292, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0332, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0634, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0306, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2884, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.041, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 613, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, 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threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9403, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1652, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1477, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1071, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0555, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1344, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1571, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1396, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0955, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0647, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0822, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0877, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0903, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1053, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0537, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 616, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1783, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1633, "model_over_probability": 0.1633, "model_under_probability": 0.8367, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0408, "edge_under": 0.002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8973, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.88, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1317, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1344, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.102, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0475, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.137, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1257, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0913, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0724, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0697, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0686, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0784, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0336, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1007, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2081, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0462, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 621, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "hitter_id": 686527, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1767, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.162, "model_over_probability": 0.162, "model_under_probability": 0.838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1539, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8461, "edge_over": 0.002, "edge_under": -0.0415, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.68, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1894, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1822, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0652, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1838, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2151, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1871, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0238, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0294, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0222, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1592, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0255, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0551, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0271, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0645, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 620, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138, "model_over_probability": 0.138, "model_under_probability": 0.862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8685, "edge_over": 0.0019, "edge_under": -0.0365, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6641, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0459, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1234, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0418, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0088, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0044, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0127, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0997, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1533, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0453, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 622, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -940, "expected_home_runs": 0.1485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138, "model_over_probability": 0.138, "model_under_probability": 0.862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9038, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1309, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8691, "edge_over": 0.0019, "edge_under": -0.0418, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6641, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0459, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1234, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0418, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0088, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0044, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0127, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0997, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1533, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0453, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 623, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2008, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1819, "model_over_probability": 0.1819, "model_under_probability": 0.8181, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": 0.0017, "edge_under": -0.0359, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.59, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.74, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.55, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.23, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1315, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1343, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1017, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0469, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8487, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.79, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.99, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1201, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1161, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0415, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0831, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.114, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0673, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0303, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0343, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0645, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0317, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0364, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2884, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.041, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to 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"implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.001, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.001, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6641, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0459, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1234, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0427, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0097, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0053, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0367, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0136, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0997, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1533, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0453, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy 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"play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1797, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1645, "model_over_probability": 0.1645, "model_under_probability": 0.8355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": -0.0355, "edge_under": 0.0008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.81, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1663, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.148, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0553, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1575, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.82, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1396, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0922, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1467, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1322, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0653, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0239, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0179, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0507, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0253, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2679, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0479, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", 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"projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1396, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0922, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1467, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1322, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0653, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0239, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0179, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0507, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0253, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2679, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0479, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 649, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1677, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1544, "model_over_probability": 0.1544, "model_under_probability": 0.8456, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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0.1543, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2069, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1796, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0005, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0275, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1534, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0193, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0258, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.063, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", 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"no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4673, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.41, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.01, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1015, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1084, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0374, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.115, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1118, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0685, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0384, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0315, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0562, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0249, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0281, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2131, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1795, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1926, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1673, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0661, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0288, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2073, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.041, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1305, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0681, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 660, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "hitter_id": 608348, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -880, "expected_home_runs": 0.1478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1374, "model_over_probability": 0.1374, "model_under_probability": 0.8626, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.898, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1324, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8676, "edge_over": 0.0004, "edge_under": -0.0354, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.16, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.46, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1333, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1395, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0949, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1394, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0421, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0025, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1366, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1864, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0478, 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"damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 663, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "hitter_id": 624641, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.1045, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0992, "model_over_probability": 0.0992, "model_under_probability": 0.9008, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1336, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8664, "edge_over": -0.0397, "edge_under": -0.0002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4168, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.77, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0996, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0371, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1064, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0804, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0393, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0314, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1381, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0331, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0825, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0363, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 662, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1135, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.081, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.69, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0657, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0943, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0288, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0994, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1028, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.064, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0153, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0133, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0807, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0218, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0285, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 661, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "hitter_id": 686527, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1767, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.162, "model_over_probability": 0.162, "model_under_probability": 0.838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1571, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8429, "edge_over": -0.0006, "edge_under": -0.0346, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.68, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1894, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1822, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0653, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1838, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2151, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1871, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0212, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0268, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0196, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1618, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0245, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0645, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 651, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2383, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7946, "edge_over": -0.0008, "edge_under": -0.035, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.158, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1648, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1596, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0573, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1737, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.152, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0511, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0532, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2117, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0945, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0555, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0608, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1172, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3777, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0562, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 647, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1125, "under_odds": -2295, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0785, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9215, "edge_over": -0.0008, "edge_under": -0.039, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": 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"palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0285, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, 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4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1112, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1134, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.086, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0399, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0518, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1171, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1131, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1405, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0811, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0789, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1915, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0752, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.078, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0792, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0851, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0391, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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"team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1552, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1438, "model_over_probability": 0.1438, "model_under_probability": 0.8562, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8606, "edge_over": -0.0011, "edge_under": -0.0385, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8191, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.84, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1426, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1363, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0489, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1363, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1252, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.043, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0023, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0086, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1443, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0197, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1828, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0483, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 641, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "hitter_id": 691718, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.1264, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1187, "model_over_probability": 0.1187, "model_under_probability": 0.8813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1475, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8525, "edge_over": -0.034, "edge_under": -0.0011, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7435, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1386, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1411, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0494, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1512, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1354, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.04, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0141, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0116, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1521, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0459, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2969, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0488, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 82, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 640, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.1953, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774, "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1718, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8282, "edge_over": -0.0012, "edge_under": -0.0385, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0012, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.934, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1897, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0642, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1501, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1871, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1627, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0285, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0111, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0023, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1779, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0493, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0159, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0635, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 638, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.1556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1441, "model_over_probability": 0.1441, "model_under_probability": 0.8559, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1763, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8237, "edge_over": -0.0394, "edge_under": -0.0012, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0012, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8662, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1376, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0465, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0961, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1367, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0874, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0603, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0459, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0767, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0305, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0468, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0457, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 639, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0818, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0785, "model_over_probability": 0.0785, "model_under_probability": 0.9215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0015, "edge_under": -0.0335, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0148, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0044, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0031, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.067, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0662, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0652, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0756, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0029, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 634, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0818, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0785, "model_over_probability": 0.0785, "model_under_probability": 0.9215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0015, "edge_under": -0.0385, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0148, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0044, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0031, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.067, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0662, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0652, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0756, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0029, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 635, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0818, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0785, "model_over_probability": 0.0785, "model_under_probability": 0.9215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0015, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0148, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0044, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0031, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.067, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0662, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0652, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0756, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0029, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 636, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2341, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087, "model_over_probability": 0.2087, "model_under_probability": 0.7913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0018, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2131, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1795, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1926, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1673, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0683, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0026, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.031, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0432, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1305, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0681, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 626, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "hitter_id": 682657, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 935, "under_odds": -1520, "expected_home_runs": 0.0996, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0948, "model_over_probability": 0.0948, "model_under_probability": 0.9052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0966, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9383, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9067, "edge_over": -0.0018, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.65, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.22, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0679, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0122, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0138, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0273, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0693, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0287, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0844, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0962, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0965, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0404, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0966, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0154, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4187, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0134, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 625, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.143, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1332, "model_over_probability": 0.1332, "model_under_probability": 0.8668, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": -0.0019, "edge_under": -0.038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9401, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.64, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1345, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0845, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1232, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0506, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0015, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0119, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1622, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0472, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 624, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.1661, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.153, "model_over_probability": 0.153, "model_under_probability": 0.847, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8511, "edge_over": -0.002, "edge_under": -0.0387, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8759, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.9, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.146, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1373, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1253, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0586, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.009, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0177, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0214, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0297, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.049, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 619, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "hitter_id": 669257, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -800, "expected_home_runs": 0.1552, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1438, "model_over_probability": 0.1438, "model_under_probability": 0.8562, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1411, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8589, "edge_over": -0.0022, "edge_under": -0.0327, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8191, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.84, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.37, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1426, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1363, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0489, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1363, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1252, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0441, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0034, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0097, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1454, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0457, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0208, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0997, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1828, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0483, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 617, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "hitter_id": 669257, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1552, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1438, "model_over_probability": 0.1438, "model_under_probability": 0.8562, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0022, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the 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4.25, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1872, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1347, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0726, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1635, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1913, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0664, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0427, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2283, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0952, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0386, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1332, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1775, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0711, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated 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false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9697, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 28.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1934, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1772, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0655, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1505, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1661, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0717, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0288, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0927, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0311, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0561, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1279, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1096, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.72, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1798, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.06, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1445, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1798, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1568, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0142, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0211, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.004, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0405, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0211, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0019, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1842, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0594, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 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"lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.1056, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1002, "model_over_probability": 0.1002, "model_under_probability": 0.8998, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": -0.0368, "edge_under": -0.0031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4712, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.11, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0386, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1089, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1082, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0656, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0291, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0288, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0964, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 86, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 602, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { 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"lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8759, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.9, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.146, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1373, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1253, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0598, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0102, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0189, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0309, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, 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"implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0032, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8759, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.9, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.146, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1373, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1253, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0598, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0102, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0189, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0309, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.049, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 599, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "hitter_id": 682626, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1521, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1411, "model_over_probability": 0.1411, "model_under_probability": 0.8589, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8333, "edge_over": -0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0032, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.74, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1646, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1476, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0548, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0917, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1467, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1322, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0807, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0078, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0248, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0656, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0257, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0402, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.252, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.054, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 600, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "hitter_id": 682657, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0996, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0948, "model_over_probability": 0.0948, "model_under_probability": 0.9052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0032, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.65, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.22, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0679, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0122, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0139, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0273, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0707, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0301, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0858, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0976, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0979, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.098, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0168, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4187, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0134, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 66, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 597, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "hitter_id": 682657, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 915, "under_odds": -1610, "expected_home_runs": 0.0996, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0948, "model_over_probability": 0.0948, "model_under_probability": 0.9052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0985, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9415, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": -0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0363, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.65, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.22, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0679, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0122, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0139, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0273, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0712, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0306, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0863, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0981, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0984, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0423, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0985, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0173, 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4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2131, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1795, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1926, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1673, 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"likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6254, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.92, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.098, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.125, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0398, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0203, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1313, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1219, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0597, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.018, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0513, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0419, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7833, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.72, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1798, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.06, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1445, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1798, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1568, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0155, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0198, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1594, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0032, 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1897, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0642, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1501, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1871, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1627, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0317, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0055, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0053, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0191, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0635, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 579, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, 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"projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.192, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1347, "hr_prob_refined": 0.066, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1743, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1738, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0218, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0041, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0131, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1949, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0614, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0223, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1335, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.88, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.29, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1081, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1048, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0374, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0449, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1039, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1053, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0644, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0012, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0317, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0054, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.004, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0433, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.037, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 570, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -635, "expected_home_runs": 0.1863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.17, "model_over_probability": 0.17, "model_under_probability": 0.83, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8639, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1688, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8312, "edge_over": -0.0054, "edge_under": -0.0339, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0054, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9588, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.86, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1967, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0666, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1225, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1824, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0529, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0213, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1748, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0409, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.007, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.066, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 568, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "hitter_id": 677588, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1130, "under_odds": -2315, "expected_home_runs": 0.0789, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0759, "model_over_probability": 0.0759, "model_under_probability": 0.9241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0813, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9586, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9218, "edge_over": -0.0054, "edge_under": -0.0345, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0054, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6254, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.92, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.098, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.125, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0399, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0203, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1313, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1219, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.061, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0167, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0437, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.05, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0523, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0406, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7833, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0395, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 569, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2474, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2192, "model_over_probability": 0.2192, "model_under_probability": 0.7808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2158, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7842, "edge_over": -0.0055, "edge_under": -0.0357, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9849, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.59, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.182, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1751, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0633, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1375, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1832, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1595, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0872, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0427, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0496, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.223, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0952, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0415, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0652, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1278, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0616, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 566, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "hitter_id": 676914, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1557, "model_over_probability": 0.1557, "model_under_probability": 0.8443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": -0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0299, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.05, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.72, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1798, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.06, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1445, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1798, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1568, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0168, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0185, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1607, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0045, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1175, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1842, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0593, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 563, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "hitter_id": 687597, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": -1240, "expected_home_runs": 0.1153, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1089, "model_over_probability": 0.1089, "model_under_probability": 0.8911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9254, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8896, "edge_over": -0.006, "edge_under": -0.0343, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7986, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.89, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.01, 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0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.41, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0238, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1502, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1552, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_refined": 0.054, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1534, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0439, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0063, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0113, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0095, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", 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"platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7411, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.27, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.56, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1524, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0514, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1236, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1784, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1557, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0459, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0329, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0171, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1688, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0513, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0089, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1175, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3225, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", 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-0.0302, "edge_under": -0.0085, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9403, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1652, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1477, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0554, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1344, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1571, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1396, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0878, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.057, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0745, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1152, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0651, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0826, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1054, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 520, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 681715, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.1214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1143, "model_over_probability": 0.1143, "model_under_probability": 0.8857, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.864, "edge_over": -0.0265, "edge_under": -0.0085, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6765, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.51, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.77, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0846, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0561, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0243, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0927, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0813, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0562, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0847, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1054, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0605, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0937, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0481, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0116, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0349, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3745, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0238, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 521, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.17, "model_over_probability": 0.17, "model_under_probability": 0.83, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1726, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8274, "edge_over": -0.0086, "edge_under": -0.0261, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0086, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9588, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.86, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1967, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0666, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1225, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1824, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0561, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0181, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0048, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1779, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0441, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0038, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.066, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 514, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2254, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018, "model_over_probability": 0.2018, "model_under_probability": 0.7982, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2025, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7975, "edge_over": -0.0087, "edge_under": -0.0309, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0087, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9308, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1536, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1456, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0531, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1107, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1581, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1403, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0998, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0569, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0649, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2088, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0683, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0702, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1054, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2883, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0515, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 510, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "hitter_id": 663757, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1862, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1699, "model_over_probability": 0.1699, "model_under_probability": 0.8301, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1726, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8274, "edge_over": -0.0087, "edge_under": -0.026, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0087, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1996, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.184, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0675, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1571, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2099, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1823, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0215, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.021, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0054, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1775, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0313, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0664, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 512, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "hitter_id": 663757, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1862, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1699, "model_over_probability": 0.1699, "model_under_probability": 0.8301, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0087, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0087, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1996, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.184, 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0.0173, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0034, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1792, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0339, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0059, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.066, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 500, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1725, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1584, "model_over_probability": 0.1584, "model_under_probability": 0.8416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": -0.0303, "edge_under": -0.0091, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0091, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9277, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1112, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1134, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0399, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0518, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1171, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1131, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1369, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0775, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0753, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0744, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0756, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0851, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0391, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 498, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8719, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.19, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1479, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1439, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0515, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1578, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1401, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0838, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0356, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0396, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1826, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0767, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0257, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0434, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.162, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0506, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 496, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0704, "model_over_probability": 0.0704, "model_under_probability": 0.9296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": -0.0254, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.16, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.29, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0864, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0895, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0311, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0384, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0845, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0949, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0416, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0064, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0149, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0679, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2375, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0308, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 493, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0704, "model_over_probability": 0.0704, "model_under_probability": 0.9296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": -0.0304, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.16, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.29, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0864, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0895, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0311, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0384, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0845, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0949, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0416, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0064, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0149, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0679, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2375, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0308, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 494, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0704, "model_over_probability": 0.0704, "model_under_probability": 0.9296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.88, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.77, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1457, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1432, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0508, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.073, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1468, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1323, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0785, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0058, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0083, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0093, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0192, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1709, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0503, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, 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"sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0099, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0099, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.36, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1649, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1476, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0549, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1456, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0492, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0312, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0485, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1952, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0892, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0539, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0505, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1338, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model 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"hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 489, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1903, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1733, "model_over_probability": 0.1733, "model_under_probability": 0.8267, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1765, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8235, "edge_over": -0.0102, "edge_under": -0.0294, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0102, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.866, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 29.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2016, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1537, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1808, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1576, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0298, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0181, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0542, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0259, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2076, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0658, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 486, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -435, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "model_over_probability": 0.1972, "model_under_probability": 0.8028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8131, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7854, "edge_over": -0.025, "edge_under": -0.0103, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0103, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8755, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": 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"hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0989, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1253, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0401, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0857, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1294, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1207, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0476, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0344, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0126, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", 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3.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0989, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1253, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0401, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0857, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1294, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1207, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0476, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0344, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0126, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2725, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0397, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 473, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "hitter_id": 669720, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1306, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1224, "model_over_probability": 0.1224, "model_under_probability": 0.8776, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0109, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0109, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7654, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0989, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1253, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0401, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0857, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1294, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1207, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0476, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0344, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0126, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2725, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0397, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 474, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2254, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018, "model_over_probability": 0.2018, "model_under_probability": 0.7982, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9308, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1536, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1456, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1071, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0532, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1107, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1581, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1403, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1021, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0592, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0672, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2111, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0725, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1053, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2883, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0514, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 471, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1486, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1381, "model_over_probability": 0.1381, "model_under_probability": 0.8619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": -0.0112, "edge_under": -0.0288, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1477, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0512, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0638, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.163, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1439, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0855, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0016, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0055, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1488, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0054, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 470, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, 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0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.162, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0506, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", 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"implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8953, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1393, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8607, "edge_over": -0.0113, "edge_under": -0.0289, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0113, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0999, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0369, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0256, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1079, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1077, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1193, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.045, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0374, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0616, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0341, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0372, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0827, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3464, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0364, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1316, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1233, "model_over_probability": 0.1233, "model_under_probability": 0.8767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8588, "edge_over": -0.0227, "edge_under": -0.0116, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0116, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4712, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.046, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0888, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1306, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1215, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0572, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0142, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0154, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0245, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0733, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0453, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 462, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": -0.0118, "edge_under": -0.0236, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0118, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.36, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1649, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1476, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0549, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1456, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0511, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0331, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0504, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0911, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0524, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1338, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.054, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 461, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2094, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889, 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"opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1912, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1347, "hr_prob_refined": 0.066, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1398, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1741, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0776, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0262, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0346, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0433, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1333, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.069, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0646, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.1878, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1712, "model_over_probability": 0.1712, "model_under_probability": 0.8288, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": -0.0123, "edge_under": -0.0231, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8443, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.92, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1975, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1836, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0671, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1816, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2141, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1861, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0019, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.014, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0001, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1824, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0306, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0026, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.066, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 452, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -765, "expected_home_runs": 0.1486, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1381, "model_over_probability": 0.1381, "model_under_probability": 0.8619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8844, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1453, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8547, "edge_over": -0.0123, "edge_under": -0.0225, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1477, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0512, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0638, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.163, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1439, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0866, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0027, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0066, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1499, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0437, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 457, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1486, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1381, "model_over_probability": 0.1381, "model_under_probability": 0.8619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1477, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0512, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0638, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.163, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1439, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0866, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0027, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0066, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1499, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0437, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 458, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "hitter_id": 518595, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.1434, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1336, "model_over_probability": 0.1336, "model_under_probability": 0.8664, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.141, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.859, "edge_over": -0.0124, "edge_under": -0.0231, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0124, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0999, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0369, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0256, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1079, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1077, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1204, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0461, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0385, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0381, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0383, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0827, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3464, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1656, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1702, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0595, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1812, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0356, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.003, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0076, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1617, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0333, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0046, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1122, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1137, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.04, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.113, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.059, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0203, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0188, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1319, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0155, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0182, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0195, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0394, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 840, "under_odds": -1305, "expected_home_runs": 0.0981, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0934, "model_over_probability": 0.0934, "model_under_probability": 0.9066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1064, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9288, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1028, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8972, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": -0.0222, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7316, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.4, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1316, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0988, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0416, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0596, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.117, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0468, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0015, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0195, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.106, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0106, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0328, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0984, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3429, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0412, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 439, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "hitter_id": 673357, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.1572, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1455, "model_over_probability": 0.1455, "model_under_probability": 0.8545, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": -0.0132, "edge_under": -0.0265, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8996, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.39, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1495, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1205, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0471, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1158, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1123, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0569, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0092, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0382, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.075, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0429, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0473, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0464, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.083, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2474, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0463, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 437, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": -455, "expected_home_runs": 0.2254, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018, "model_over_probability": 0.2018, "model_under_probability": 0.7982, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2078, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7922, "edge_over": -0.0133, "edge_under": -0.0216, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9308, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1536, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1456, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1071, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0532, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1107, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1581, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1403, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1044, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0615, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0695, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2133, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0748, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1053, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2883, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0514, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 435, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.176, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1614, "model_over_probability": 0.1614, "model_under_probability": 0.8386, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": -0.0221, "edge_under": -0.0133, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8778, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.0, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1774, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1622, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0596, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1768, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1544, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0546, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0061, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0213, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0653, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0291, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0588, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 436, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "hitter_id": 668901, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.1675, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1542, "model_over_probability": 0.1542, "model_under_probability": 0.8458, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1734, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8266, "edge_over": -0.026, "edge_under": -0.0134, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0134, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8977, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.31, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.74, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1348, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1109, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0778, "hr_prob_refined": 0.043, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1035, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1043, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0767, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0454, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0693, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1793, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0781, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0768, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0759, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0256, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0769, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3572, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0422, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 434, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 960, "under_odds": -1585, "expected_home_runs": 0.0842, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9407, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0911, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9089, "edge_over": -0.0135, "edge_under": -0.0215, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0135, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8374, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0838, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0559, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.024, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0786, 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0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": -0.0136, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0136, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 29.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2016, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1537, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1808, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1576, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0332, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0147, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0576, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0293, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2076, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0658, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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"confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.866, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 29.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2016, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0667, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1537, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1808, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1576, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0332, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0147, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0576, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0293, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2076, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0658, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 429, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "hitter_id": 681393, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.1311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1229, "model_over_probability": 0.1229, "model_under_probability": 0.8771, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1324, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8676, "edge_over": -0.0141, "edge_under": -0.0203, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7393, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.47, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0129, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0146, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0815, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1112, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0656, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1241, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1365, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1369, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0801, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0555, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.553, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0141, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 82, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 423, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "hitter_id": 681393, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.1311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1229, "model_over_probability": 0.1229, "model_under_probability": 0.8771, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": -0.0141, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7393, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.47, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0129, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0146, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0815, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1112, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0656, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1241, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1365, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1369, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0801, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0555, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.553, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0141, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 82, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 424, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "hitter_id": 609280, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 830, "under_odds": -1380, "expected_home_runs": 0.0981, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0934, "model_over_probability": 0.0934, "model_under_probability": 0.9066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1075, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8966, "edge_over": -0.0141, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7316, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.4, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1316, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0988, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0416, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0596, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.117, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0479, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0184, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0087, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0095, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0328, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0984, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3429, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0412, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 425, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "hitter_id": 609280, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 830, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0981, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0934, "model_over_probability": 0.0934, "model_under_probability": 0.9066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1075, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0141, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7316, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.4, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1316, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0988, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0416, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0596, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1234, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.117, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0479, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0184, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0087, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0095, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0328, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0984, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3429, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0412, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 426, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -510, "expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782, "model_over_probability": 0.1782, "model_under_probability": 0.8218, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8361, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1915, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8085, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": -0.0143, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0143, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.54, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.67, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1633, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1472, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0546, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1462, 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"opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.1214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1143, "model_over_probability": 0.1143, "model_under_probability": 0.8857, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": -0.0256, "edge_under": -0.0143, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0143, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6765, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.51, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.77, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0846, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0561, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0243, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0927, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0804, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0553, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0838, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1394, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0596, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0928, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0472, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0116, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0349, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3745, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0238, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 419, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.2106, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1899, "model_over_probability": 0.1899, "model_under_probability": 0.8101, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2069, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7931, "edge_over": -0.0252, "edge_under": -0.0145, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9697, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 28.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1934, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1772, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0654, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1505, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1661, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0646, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0217, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0379, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0857, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.049, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.128, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1096, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.064, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 417, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "hitter_id": 673357, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1572, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1455, "model_over_probability": 0.1455, "model_under_probability": 0.8545, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8996, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.9, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; bottom_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.39, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1495, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1205, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0471, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1158, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1123, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0582, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0105, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0395, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1592, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0763, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0442, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0477, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.083, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2474, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0463, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 418, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.1818, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1662, "model_over_probability": 0.1662, "model_under_probability": 0.8338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1805, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8195, "edge_over": -0.0207, "edge_under": -0.0147, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0147, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9369, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1883, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.176, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0639, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1885, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1639, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0579, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0014, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0109, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1862, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0576, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.023, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0632, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 415, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2124, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1914, "model_over_probability": 0.1914, "model_under_probability": 0.8086, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0148, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0148, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 30.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.165, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0643, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1778, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0488, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0412, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0284, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.051, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1172, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.129, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0632, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 413, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 945, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0842, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0149, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8374, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0838, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0559, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.024, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0918, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0693, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0119, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0398, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0954, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0603, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0039, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.21, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0237, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 412, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "hitter_id": 681393, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1229, "model_over_probability": 0.1229, "model_under_probability": 0.8771, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.015, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7393, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.47, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.65, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0129, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0146, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0815, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1121, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0665, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.125, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1378, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0564, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.553, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0141, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 82, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 409, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 940, "under_odds": -1675, "expected_home_runs": 0.0842, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0962, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9437, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0925, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9075, "edge_over": -0.0154, "edge_under": -0.0245, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0154, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8374, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0838, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0559, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.024, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0918, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0698, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0124, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0403, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0959, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0608, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0176, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0491, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0044, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.21, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0237, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 403, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -385, "expected_home_runs": 0.2506, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2217, "model_over_probability": 0.2217, "model_under_probability": 0.7783, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7938, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2329, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7671, "edge_over": -0.0193, "edge_under": -0.0155, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0155, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.66, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1636, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1696, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1296, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0598, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1811, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1579, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.088, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0774, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0714, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0599, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0689, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0831, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0425, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1276, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2872, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated 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"opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.1572, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1455, "model_over_probability": 0.1455, "model_under_probability": 0.8545, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": -0.0158, "edge_under": -0.0197, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0158, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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"projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1495, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1205, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0471, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1158, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1123, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0595, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0118, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0408, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1605, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0776, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0499, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.049, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.083, 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"implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8131, "edge_over": -0.016, "edge_under": -0.0232, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.54, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.67, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1633, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1472, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0546, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1462, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0789, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0309, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.047, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1933, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0874, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.048, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0911, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0537, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 397, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "hitter_id": 657656, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.27, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.56, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1524, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0514, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1236, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1784, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1557, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0431, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0301, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0143, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0485, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0117, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.011, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1175, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3225, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 398, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "hitter_id": 641343, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.1356, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1268, "model_over_probability": 0.1268, "model_under_probability": 0.8732, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8554, "edge_over": -0.0236, "edge_under": -0.0163, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0163, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.88, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.77, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1457, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1432, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0508, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.073, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1468, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1323, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0774, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0047, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0436, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0181, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1709, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0503, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 392, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2506, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2217, "model_over_probability": 0.2217, "model_under_probability": 0.7783, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0164, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0164, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.66, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1636, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1696, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1296, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0598, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1811, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1579, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0851, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0745, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0685, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0802, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1277, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2872, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0579, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 391, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1645, "expected_home_runs": 0.0769, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.074, "model_over_probability": 0.074, "model_under_probability": 0.926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9427, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": -0.0182, "edge_under": -0.0167, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0167, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5877, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0676, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0208, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0423, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0879, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0499, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0246, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0402, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0918, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0568, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0451, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0043, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0205, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 387, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2124, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1914, "model_over_probability": 0.1914, "model_under_probability": 0.8086, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2011, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7989, "edge_over": -0.0169, "edge_under": -0.019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0169, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.03, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 30.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.165, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0644, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1778, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0509, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0083, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0433, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.09, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0305, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0531, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.039, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1171, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.129, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0632, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 381, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0639, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0619, "model_over_probability": 0.0619, "model_under_probability": 0.9381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0181, "edge_under": -0.0169, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0169, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.34, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0095, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0107, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0137, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0663, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0271, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0705, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0105, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 380, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "hitter_id": 602104, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": -1115, "expected_home_runs": 0.1047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0994, "model_over_probability": 0.0994, "model_under_probability": 0.9006, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9177, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8821, "edge_over": -0.0233, "edge_under": -0.0171, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0171, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6261, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.35, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.58, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.96, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0933, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1066, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0355, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1074, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1074, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0525, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0294, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0161, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1223, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0395, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0119, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0153, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.15, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0351, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": 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"recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0172, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.45, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1625, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.147, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0544, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1453, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1313, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0847, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0298, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0453, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1914, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0855, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.061, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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0.1751, "model_under_probability": 0.8249, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0172, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0172, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.45, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1625, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.147, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0544, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1076, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1453, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1313, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0847, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0298, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0453, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1914, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0855, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.061, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1842, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0535, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": 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"market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1818, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1662, "model_over_probability": 0.1662, "model_under_probability": 0.8338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1765, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8235, "edge_over": -0.0173, "edge_under": -0.0223, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0173, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9369, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1883, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.176, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0639, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1885, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1639, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0545, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0075, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1828, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0542, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0196, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0632, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 375, "edge_direction_rank": null, 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"play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7756, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.7, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1675, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0573, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1466, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1954, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1697, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0617, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0554, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0408, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0129, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0386, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2944, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0559, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 369, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1316, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1233, "model_over_probability": 0.1233, "model_under_probability": 0.8767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1403, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8597, "edge_over": -0.0227, "edge_under": -0.018, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4712, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.046, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0888, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1306, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1215, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0572, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0142, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0154, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0245, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0733, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0453, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 365, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.1172, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1106, "model_over_probability": 0.1106, "model_under_probability": 0.8894, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": -0.0219, "edge_under": -0.018, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.439, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1122, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1137, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.04, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.113, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.059, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0203, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0188, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1319, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0155, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0182, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0195, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0394, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 366, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0639, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0619, "model_over_probability": 0.0619, "model_under_probability": 0.9381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0181, "edge_under": -0.0219, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0181, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.34, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0095, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0107, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0137, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0663, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0271, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0705, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0105, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 362, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0639, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0619, "model_over_probability": 0.0619, "model_under_probability": 0.9381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0181, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0181, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.34, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0095, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0107, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0137, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0663, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0271, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0705, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0105, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 363, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.176, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1614, "model_over_probability": 0.1614, "model_under_probability": 0.8386, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8268, "edge_over": -0.0188, "edge_under": -0.0215, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0188, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8778, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.0, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1774, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1622, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0596, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1768, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1544, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0513, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0258, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0588, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 359, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1818, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1662, "model_over_probability": 0.1662, "model_under_probability": 0.8338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.019, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9369, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1883, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.176, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0639, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1885, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1639, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0562, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0031, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0092, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1845, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0213, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0632, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 358, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -440, "expected_home_runs": 0.2286, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "model_over_probability": 0.2044, "model_under_probability": 0.7956, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2162, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7838, "edge_over": -0.0203, "edge_under": -0.0192, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0192, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9419, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1705, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1613, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1185, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1314, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1785, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1558, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0933, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0542, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0634, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0462, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0674, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0689, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0389, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1167, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0571, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 356, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 960, "under_odds": -1735, "expected_home_runs": 0.0769, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.074, "model_over_probability": 0.074, "model_under_probability": 0.926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0907, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9093, "edge_over": -0.0203, "edge_under": -0.0195, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0195, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5877, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0676, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0208, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0423, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0879, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.052, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0267, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0423, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0939, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0589, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0237, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0472, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0064, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0204, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 353, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.1519, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1409, "model_over_probability": 0.1409, "model_under_probability": 0.8591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8449, "edge_over": -0.0204, "edge_under": -0.0197, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0197, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1656, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1702, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0595, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1812, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0343, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0043, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0089, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1604, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0033, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0586, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 351, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782, "model_over_probability": 0.1782, "model_under_probability": 0.8218, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0198, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.54, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.67, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1633, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1472, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0546, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1462, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0827, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0347, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0508, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1971, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0911, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0518, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0911, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0537, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 346, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 965, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0769, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.074, "model_over_probability": 0.074, "model_under_probability": 0.926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0939, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0199, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5877, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0676, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0208, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0423, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0879, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0516, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0263, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0419, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0935, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0585, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0233, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0468, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.006, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0204, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 345, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "model_over_probability": 0.1972, "model_under_probability": 0.8028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": -0.0202, "edge_under": -0.0202, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0202, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8755, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.4, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1708, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1614, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0585, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1184, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1773, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1548, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.099, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0466, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.056, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0991, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0401, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0626, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.039, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1171, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1471, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0573, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 343, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.2344, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.209, "model_over_probability": 0.209, "model_under_probability": 0.791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2208, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7792, "edge_over": -0.0209, "edge_under": -0.0203, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0203, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9028, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2064, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1803, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0682, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1477, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1835, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1598, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0822, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0235, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0496, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0464, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0701, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1278, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.135, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0665, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate 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"2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.176, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1614, "model_over_probability": 0.1614, "model_under_probability": 0.8386, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0204, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0204, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8778, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.0, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1774, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1622, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0596, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1768, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1544, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0529, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0044, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0196, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0636, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0245, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0274, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0588, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 338, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1519, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1409, "model_over_probability": 0.1409, "model_under_probability": 0.8591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0217, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0217, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1656, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1702, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0595, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1812, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0356, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.003, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0076, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1617, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0333, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0046, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0586, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 329, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1972, "model_over_probability": 0.1972, "model_under_probability": 0.8028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0226, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0226, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8755, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.4, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1708, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1614, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0586, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1184, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1773, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1548, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1014, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.049, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0584, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0425, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0625, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.039, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1171, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1471, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0573, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 316, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1316, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1233, "model_over_probability": 0.1233, "model_under_probability": 0.8767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0227, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0227, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4712, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.046, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0888, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1306, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1215, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0572, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0142, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0154, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0245, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0733, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0453, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 313, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1172, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1106, "model_over_probability": 0.1106, "model_under_probability": 0.8894, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0227, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0227, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.439, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1122, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1137, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.04, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.113, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0598, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0211, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0196, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1326, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0163, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0203, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0852, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0393, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 314, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "hitter_id": 602104, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0994, "model_over_probability": 0.0994, "model_under_probability": 0.9006, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0233, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0233, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6261, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.35, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.58, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.96, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0933, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1066, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0355, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1074, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1074, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0525, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0294, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0161, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1223, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0395, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0119, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0153, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.15, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0351, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 309, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9028, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.033, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 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"hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.7, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1675, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0573, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1466, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1954, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1697, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0639, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0576, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2091, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0408, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2944, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0559, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", 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"lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.88, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.77, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1457, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1432, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0508, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.073, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1468, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1323, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0785, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0058, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0083, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0093, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0192, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1709, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0503, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 74, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 291, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2286, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "model_over_probability": 0.2044, "model_under_probability": 0.7956, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9419, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1705, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1613, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1185, "hr_prob_refined": 0.059, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1314, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1785, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1558, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0985, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0594, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0686, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2279, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0514, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0726, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0741, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0388, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1165, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.057, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 287, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "hitter_id": 657656, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1539, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1426, "model_over_probability": 0.1426, "model_under_probability": 0.8574, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, 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"fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0422, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 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"hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.037, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2183, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0851, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0192, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0457, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1333, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.069, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0646, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", 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"damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 208, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "hitter_id": 691718, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", 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0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0494, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1512, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1354, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.04, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0141, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0116, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1521, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0459, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2969, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0488, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 82, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", 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"edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0353, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9403, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, 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"opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1441, "model_over_probability": 0.1441, "model_under_probability": 0.8559, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0411, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0411, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8662, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1376, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0465, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0961, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1367, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0891, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0476, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1843, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0784, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0485, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.106, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0457, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 182, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1355, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1267, "model_over_probability": 0.1267, "model_under_probability": 0.8733, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0428, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0428, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5408, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.34, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1429, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1424, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0506, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0944, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1479, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1331, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0751, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0266, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0271, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1684, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0626, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0364, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 170, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "hitter_id": 669364, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0372, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0365, "model_over_probability": 0.0365, "model_under_probability": 0.9635, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0435, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0435, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8831, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0489, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0476, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0171, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0733, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0892, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0661, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0311, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0324, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0167, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 166, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1783, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1633, "model_over_probability": 0.1633, "model_under_probability": 0.8367, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.045, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.045, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8973, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.88, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1317, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1344, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.102, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.137, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1257, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0955, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0766, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0739, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0713, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0826, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0335, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1006, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2081, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0462, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 161, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2539, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2242, "model_over_probability": 0.2242, "model_under_probability": 0.7758, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0461, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0461, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 40.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 29.84, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2068, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1858, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1352, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0704, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1696, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1842, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1007, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0635, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0845, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.267, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1351, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0583, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0912, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0861, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.044, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1319, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.11, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0671, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 158, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0484, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0484, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7105, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.34, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.122, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.2, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1762, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1503, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0576, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1491, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1639, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1446, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.066, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0389, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0648, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2135, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0705, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1054, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.056, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 150, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "hitter_id": 666158, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0309, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0304, "model_over_probability": 0.0304, "model_under_probability": 0.9696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0496, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0496, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2008, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.59, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.14, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0244, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0058, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0052, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0236, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0677, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0737, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0556, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0742, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0564, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0047, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 94, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 144, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0297, "model_over_probability": 0.0297, "model_under_probability": 0.9703, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0503, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0503, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9087, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0301, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0072, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0062, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0696, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0716, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0499, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0728, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0513, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0104, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1772, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1624, "model_over_probability": 0.1624, "model_under_probability": 0.8376, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0504, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0504, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8978, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.25, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1919, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0659, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1753, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0657, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0209, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0298, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0782, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0337, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0375, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "hitter_id": 683146, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0907, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0867, "model_over_probability": 0.0867, "model_under_probability": 0.9133, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0532, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0532, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4704, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.71, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.14, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0984, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0368, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0836, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1148, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1117, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0563, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0415, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0324, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0562, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0251, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0282, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0831, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0996, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0406, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, 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"opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 33.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 30.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1766, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1429, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0031, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1024, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0577, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1739, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.141, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0964, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0937, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1274, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2672, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1679, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1293, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.142, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0331, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0993, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0546, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 101, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle 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"platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.6532, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.96, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1247, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1154, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0838, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0709, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1154, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1121, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1214, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0676, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0769, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1914, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0769, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0809, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0802, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1353, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0413, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 100, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 830, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0456, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0446, "model_over_probability": 0.0446, "model_under_probability": 0.9554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1075, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0629, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0629, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2402, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.12, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0178, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0677, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0865, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0955, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0551, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0588, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0721, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0604, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.021, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 98, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 675, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0658, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0637, "model_over_probability": 0.0637, "model_under_probability": 0.9363, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.129, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0653, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0653, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2499, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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"hr_edge_palantir": -0.0871, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0597, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0618, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0791, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0463, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0628, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0351, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0163, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.049, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3117, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0235, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the 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"STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 780, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0464, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0453, "model_over_probability": 0.0453, "model_under_probability": 0.9547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1136, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0683, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0683, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1299, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0807, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0097, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0165, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0347, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0721, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0329, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1136, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0415, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0005, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0159, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 82, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0714, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0714, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.098, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 42.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 27.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1964, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1348, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1372, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1765, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1067, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0475, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0606, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1091, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0406, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0648, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0674, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1331, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2003, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0656, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 74, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1542, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1429, "model_over_probability": 0.1429, "model_under_probability": 0.8571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0722, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0722, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7725, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.76, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.89, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1651, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1597, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0573, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1205, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.179, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1562, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0946, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.05, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0554, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.214, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0968, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0589, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1172, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2788, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0562, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 70, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1654, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1524, "model_over_probability": 0.1524, "model_under_probability": 0.8476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0749, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0749, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8838, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1764, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1619, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1184, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0598, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1518, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0781, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0509, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0654, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1089, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0539, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.07, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0755, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.039, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1169, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0584, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 60, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0635, "model_over_probability": 0.0635, "model_under_probability": 0.9365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0804, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0804, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1907, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0221, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0053, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.005, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0711, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1319, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1218, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1386, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.143, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1437, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0728, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0007, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7689, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0041, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 51, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "hitter_id": 676059, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0776, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0747, "model_over_probability": 0.0747, "model_under_probability": 0.9253, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0828, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0828, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1874, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0506, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0335, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0153, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0823, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1236, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.124, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.156, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0988, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0752, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3308, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0138, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 50, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 255, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2203, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1977, "model_over_probability": 0.1977, "model_under_probability": 0.8023, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.084, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.084, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8913, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.023, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1089, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1276, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.101, "hr_prob_refined": 0.044, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1211, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1301, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1212, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1606, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1728, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1541, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2783, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1807, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1516, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1481, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1605, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0326, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0977, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0406, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 48, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1859, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1696, "model_over_probability": 0.1696, "model_under_probability": 0.8304, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0868, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0868, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8043, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.18, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1961, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1297, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0666, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1611, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1959, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1701, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0953, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0603, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0785, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2539, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1267, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0605, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0843, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0863, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0424, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1272, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1971, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0642, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 45, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "hitter_id": 666971, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0724, "model_over_probability": 0.0724, "model_under_probability": 0.9276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0876, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2166, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.03, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.71, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0547, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0098, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0119, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0518, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1355, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1053, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1502, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1585, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1596, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.16, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0808, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2924, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0104, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 43, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1836, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1677, "model_over_probability": 0.1677, "model_under_probability": 0.8323, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0887, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0887, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8764, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1163, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1129, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0022, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0841, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0414, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.112, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1654, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1401, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1435, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2542, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1723, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.145, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1444, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0273, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0819, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0392, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "hitter_id": 641584, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 660, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0438, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0429, "model_over_probability": 0.0429, "model_under_probability": 0.9571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1316, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0887, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0887, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1117, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.05, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0856, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0103, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0176, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0075, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0437, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0757, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1241, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.046, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1213, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0559, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0005, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0425, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0169, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 37, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "hitter_id": 683734, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0556, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0541, "model_over_probability": 0.0541, "model_under_probability": 0.9459, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0888, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0888, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2026, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0497, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.009, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0105, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0488, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1099, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0932, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1339, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1421, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1427, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0941, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1429, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0006, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0097, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1353, "model_over_probability": 0.1353, "model_under_probability": 0.8647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.092, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.5952, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.966, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1298, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1385, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.107, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1176, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0975, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0888, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2256, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0826, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0851, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0964, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1054, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2141, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0467, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 33, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "hitter_id": 681807, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0775, "model_over_probability": 0.0775, "model_under_probability": 0.9225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.092, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge 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"availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.3, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.099, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.38, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.43, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.28, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0392, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0094, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.009, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0226, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0715, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1469, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1303, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1601, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1677, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1691, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1695, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.098, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0013, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5092, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0072, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 20, 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-0.1042, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8464, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.074, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 24.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1668, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1602, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1184, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0581, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.153, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0852, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0801, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0867, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2452, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0719, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0896, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0939, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 19, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 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"handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 53.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 37.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 38.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.223, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1813, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0045, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1302, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0733, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1378, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.08, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1217, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2985, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1322, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0419, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1257, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1498, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0688, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "hitter_id": 694192, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 510, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0599, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0581, "model_over_probability": 0.0581, "model_under_probability": 0.9419, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1058, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1058, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2041, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0478, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0086, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0102, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0174, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0779, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1465, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1161, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1553, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1629, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1636, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1152, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1639, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.086, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1922, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0092, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0165, "model_over_probability": 0.0165, "model_under_probability": 0.9835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1077, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.05, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": false, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup; inactive_roster; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0445, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0002, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0095, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0036, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0675, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1206, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0797, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1162, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1233, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0567, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0002, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0007, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.7433, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0086, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2283, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2041, "model_over_probability": 0.2041, "model_under_probability": 0.7959, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1084, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1084, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.022, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0049, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1356, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0731, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1981, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.172, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1445, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0971, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1247, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1769, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1144, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1334, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1405, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0436, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1307, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0683, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1002, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0953, "model_over_probability": 0.0953, "model_under_probability": 0.9047, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1088, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "partial_role", "estimated_start_probability": 0.4712, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 2.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_platoon_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.01, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.3, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1138, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.086, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0404, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0883, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1139, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1158, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0916, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0903, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0856, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0898, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0902, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0283, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0848, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2586, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0392, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "hitter_id": 671213, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0802, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0771, "model_over_probability": 0.0771, "model_under_probability": 0.9229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1134, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1134, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1904, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.146, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0688, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0124, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0023, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0006, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0153, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0125, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0515, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0791, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.178, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1217, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1781, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1882, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1899, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1114, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0006, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0017, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3409, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.013, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable 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"model_over_probability": 0.0224, "model_under_probability": 0.9776, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1155, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1155, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0522, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0315, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0075, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.007, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0072, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0717, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1307, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1064, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1304, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1376, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.104, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0662, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0008, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.52, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "hitter_id": 673548, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0701, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0677, "model_over_probability": 0.0677, "model_under_probability": 0.9323, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1175, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1175, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.223, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.805, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.63, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.77, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0728, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0361, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0198, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0417, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0817, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1435, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1124, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1491, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1837, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1638, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1278, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1571, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0066, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0199, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3676, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0182, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "hitter_id": 666624, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0588, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0571, "model_over_probability": 0.0571, "model_under_probability": 0.9429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1215, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1215, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1733, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.76, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0087, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0082, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0216, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.157, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1422, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1699, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1772, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1782, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1469, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1786, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1078, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0004, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0011, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4825, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0068, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0233, "model_over_probability": 0.0233, "model_under_probability": 0.9767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.126, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.126, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0585, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.61, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0066, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0136, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0298, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0701, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1357, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.122, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1427, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.149, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1493, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0792, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.001, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.28, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.005, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 70, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "hitter_id": 669065, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0641, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0621, "model_over_probability": 0.0621, "model_under_probability": 0.9379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1284, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1284, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.182, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.063, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0786, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0546, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0018, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0357, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0239, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0516, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0773, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0912, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1389, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1119, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1359, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1887, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1548, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0993, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0113, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.034, 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"implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1304, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1304, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1988, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.133, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.871, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.1, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.45, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.28, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0641, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0115, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0142, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0388, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0523, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0794, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1592, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1339, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1865, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.196, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1975, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1457, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1186, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0015, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0121, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0629, "model_over_probability": 0.0629, "model_under_probability": 0.9371, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1313, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1313, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.1958, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0094, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0117, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0542, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0803, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1562, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1418, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1848, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1923, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1937, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.14, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1942, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1139, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0005, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0014, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2037, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0098, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0394, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0386, "model_over_probability": 0.0386, "model_under_probability": 0.9614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1353, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1353, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.12, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; historical_same_side_bench_pattern; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.046, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0324, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0214, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0142, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0542, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0601, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.083, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1197, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1279, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1415, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1727, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0909, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0067, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0201, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.013, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "hitter_id": 623993, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0738, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0711, "model_over_probability": 0.0711, "model_under_probability": 0.9289, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1394, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1394, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.2134, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 1.56, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; il; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.16, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.873, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.38, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0411, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0074, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0024, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0006, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0098, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0191, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0286, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0696, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1914, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1694, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.2031, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.2099, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1819, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.2105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1409, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0006, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0018, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.607, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0074, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 76, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, unstable start expectation, platoon risk.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 596142, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-01T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0361, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0355, "model_over_probability": 0.0355, "model_under_probability": 0.9645, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1399, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1399, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": false, "platoon_risk_flag": true, "platoon_role_type": "regular_but_matchup_sensitive", "estimated_start_probability": 0.0849, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 0.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup; out; availability_factor", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.042, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.816, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 4.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 4.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0966, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0116, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0201, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0081, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0419, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.075, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1673, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0788, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1638, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1743, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1751, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1754, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1004, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0003, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0009, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.8375, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0189, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 88, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, unstable start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 705, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2181, "edge_over": 0.0939, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 46.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.24, "edge_over": 0.0582, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 45.0, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 670, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176, "edge_over": 0.0877, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 43.2, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.234, "edge_over": 0.0379, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Lean", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.088, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 39.6, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 535, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2252, "edge_over": 0.0677, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.146, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 38.0, "value_rank": 5, "value_row_rank": 13, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }