{ "date": "2026-03-30", "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:28.001437", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-03-30", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 459, "matched_count": 459, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 459, "matched_rows": 459, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 265, "under_recommendation_count": 9, "strong_count": 57, "play_count": 88, "lean_count": 129, "no_play_count": 185, "average_edge_over": 0.0284, "average_edge_under": -0.066, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 459, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Taijuan Walker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1000, "expected_home_runs": 0.2671, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2344, "model_over_probability": 0.2344, "model_under_probability": 0.7656, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8784, "edge_over": 0.1086, "edge_under": -0.1435, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1086, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.173, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.089, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1326, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0394, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0621, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1609, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1424, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0637, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0368, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0068, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1254, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0351, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0166, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.039, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 56.9, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Taijuan Walker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1065, "expected_home_runs": 0.2671, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2344, "model_over_probability": 0.2344, "model_under_probability": 0.7656, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9142, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.879, "edge_over": 0.1086, "edge_under": -0.1486, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1086, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.173, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.089, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1326, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0394, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0621, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1609, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1424, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0637, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0368, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0068, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1254, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0351, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0166, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.039, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 56.9, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Taijuan Walker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2671, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2344, "model_over_probability": 0.2344, "model_under_probability": 0.7656, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1078, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.173, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.089, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1326, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0394, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0621, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1609, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1424, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0645, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0376, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0343, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0156, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0158, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.039, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 56.5, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Taijuan Walker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -840, "expected_home_runs": 0.285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.248, "model_over_probability": 0.248, "model_under_probability": 0.752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8936, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": 0.102, "edge_under": -0.1416, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.102, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.173, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.273, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2637, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0939, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1941, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.271, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2436, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0481, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.127, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1177, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0976, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1944, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0934, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 56.6, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Taijuan Walker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.248, "model_over_probability": 0.248, 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null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0215, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0052, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, 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