{ "date": "2026-03-28", "generated_at": "2026-03-28T07:55:51.628070", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_engineered", "projection_date": "2026-03-28", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 621, "matched_count": 621, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 621, "matched_rows": 621, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 316, "under_recommendation_count": 11, "strong_count": 19, "play_count": 115, "lean_count": 193, "no_play_count": 294, "average_edge_over": 0.0179, "average_edge_under": -0.0556, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 621, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": -255, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "model_over_probability": 0.1861, "model_under_probability": 0.8139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3065, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6935, "edge_over": -0.1314, "edge_under": 0.0956, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0956, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.07, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.891, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": -275, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "model_over_probability": 0.1861, "model_under_probability": 0.8139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2956, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7044, "edge_over": -0.1216, "edge_under": 0.0806, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0806, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.07, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.891, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 835, "under_odds": -1295, "expected_home_runs": 0.2034, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.107, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8966, "edge_over": 0.077, "edge_under": -0.1123, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.077, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.175, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.994, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": -1370, "expected_home_runs": 0.2034, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.932, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1039, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8961, "edge_over": 0.0759, "edge_under": -0.116, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0759, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.175, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.994, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2034, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0759, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0759, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.175, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.994, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Cade Horton", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1000, "expected_home_runs": 0.225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2015, "model_over_probability": 0.2015, "model_under_probability": 0.7985, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8784, "edge_over": 0.0757, "edge_under": -0.1106, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0757, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.016, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 34.2, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Cade Horton", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1065, "expected_home_runs": 0.225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2015, "model_over_probability": 0.2015, "model_under_probability": 0.7985, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9142, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.879, "edge_over": 0.0757, "edge_under": -0.1157, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0757, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.016, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 34.2, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Cade Horton", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2015, "model_over_probability": 0.2015, "model_under_probability": 0.7985, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0749, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0749, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.062, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.016, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.2185, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1963, "model_over_probability": 0.1963, "model_under_probability": 0.8037, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0721, "edge_under": -0.107, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0721, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.956, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.2373, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2112, "model_over_probability": 0.2112, "model_under_probability": 0.7888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.0713, "edge_under": -0.1112, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0713, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.994, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.2185, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1963, "model_over_probability": 0.1963, "model_under_probability": 0.8037, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1202, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8798, "edge_over": 0.0713, "edge_under": -0.1116, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0713, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.956, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2185, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1963, "model_over_probability": 0.1963, "model_under_probability": 0.8037, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0713, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0713, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", 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