{ "date": "2026-03-26", "generated_at": "2026-03-26T20:49:38.639125", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_engineered", "projection_date": "2026-03-26", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 489, "matched_count": 489, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 489, "matched_rows": 489, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 71, "under_recommendation_count": 30, "strong_count": 14, "play_count": 25, "lean_count": 62, "no_play_count": 388, "average_edge_over": -0.0152, "average_edge_under": -0.0225, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 489, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2026, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1834, "model_over_probability": 0.1834, "model_under_probability": 0.8166, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2966, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7034, "edge_over": -0.1243, "edge_under": 0.0869, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0869, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1000, "expected_home_runs": 0.2352, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2096, "model_over_probability": 0.2096, "model_under_probability": 0.7904, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8784, "edge_over": 0.0838, "edge_under": -0.1187, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0838, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 39.8, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "hitter_id": 663457, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 735, "under_odds": -1075, "expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "model_over_probability": 0.2036, "model_under_probability": 0.7964, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9149, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1158, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8842, "edge_over": 0.0838, "edge_under": -0.1185, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0838, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 38.7, "value_rank": 10, "value_box_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "hitter_id": 663457, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 730, "under_odds": -1140, "expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "model_over_probability": 0.2036, "model_under_probability": 0.7964, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1205, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9194, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1159, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8841, "edge_over": 0.0831, "edge_under": -0.123, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0831, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 38.3, "value_rank": 11, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "hitter_id": 663457, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 730, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "model_over_probability": 0.2036, "model_under_probability": 0.7964, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1205, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0831, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0831, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 38.3, "value_rank": 12, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": -1060, "expected_home_runs": 0.2352, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2096, "model_over_probability": 0.2096, "model_under_probability": 0.7904, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9138, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1217, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8783, "edge_over": 0.083, "edge_under": -0.1234, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.083, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 39.4, "value_rank": 8, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2352, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2096, "model_over_probability": 0.2096, "model_under_probability": 0.7904, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.083, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.083, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 39.4, "value_rank": 9, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.2578, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2273, "model_over_probability": 0.2273, "model_under_probability": 0.7727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8554, "edge_over": 0.0769, "edge_under": -0.1168, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0769, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": 40.9, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.2578, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2273, "model_over_probability": 0.2273, "model_under_probability": 0.7727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8536, "edge_over": 0.0758, "edge_under": -0.1103, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0758, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": 40.5, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2578, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2273, "model_over_probability": 0.2273, "model_under_probability": 0.7727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0758, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0758, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": 40.5, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": -290, "expected_home_runs": 0.2026, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1834, "model_over_probability": 0.1834, "model_under_probability": 0.8166, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7436, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2864, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7136, "edge_over": -0.1151, "edge_under": 0.073, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.073, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.2478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2195, "model_over_probability": 0.2195, "model_under_probability": 0.7805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1414, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8586, "edge_over": 0.0724, "edge_under": -0.1125, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0724, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 19, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": 36.7, "value_rank": 14, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.2478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2195, "model_over_probability": 0.2195, "model_under_probability": 0.7805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": 0.0714, "edge_under": -0.1065, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0714, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": 36.3, "value_rank": 15, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2195, "model_over_probability": 0.2195, "model_under_probability": 0.7805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0714, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0714, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 22, "edge_direction_rank": 12, "value_score": 36.3, "value_rank": 16, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.2141, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0685, "edge_under": -0.1034, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0685, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 24, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.2141, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1202, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8798, "edge_over": 0.0677, "edge_under": -0.108, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2141, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0677, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1903, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1733, "model_over_probability": 0.1733, "model_under_probability": 0.8267, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.1007, "edge_under": 0.0648, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0648, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 29, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": 0.0629, "edge_under": -0.1029, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0629, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 33, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": 48.2, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074, "model_over_probability": 0.2074, "model_under_probability": 0.7926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1414, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8586, "edge_over": 0.0603, "edge_under": -0.1004, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0603, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 37, "edge_direction_rank": 17, "value_score": 28.3, "value_rank": 26, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -565, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.821, "edge_over": 0.0595, "edge_under": -0.0943, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0595, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 38, "edge_direction_rank": 18, "value_score": 48.0, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0595, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0595, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 39, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": 48.0, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074, "model_over_probability": 0.2074, "model_under_probability": 0.7926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": 0.0593, "edge_under": -0.0944, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0593, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 41, "edge_direction_rank": 20, "value_score": 28.0, "value_rank": 28, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2324, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2074, "model_over_probability": 0.2074, "model_under_probability": 0.7926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0593, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0593, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": 21, "value_score": 28.0, "value_rank": 29, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -350, "expected_home_runs": 0.1806, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1652, "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2503, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7497, "edge_over": -0.0945, "edge_under": 0.057, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.057, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 50, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "hitter_id": 676059, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.2459, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218, "model_over_probability": 0.218, "model_under_probability": 0.782, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1589, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8411, "edge_over": 0.0527, "edge_under": -0.093, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0527, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 55, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": 32.3, "value_rank": 23, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.1903, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1733, "model_over_probability": 0.1733, "model_under_probability": 0.8267, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.256, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.744, "edge_over": -0.0934, "edge_under": 0.0514, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0514, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 56, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "hitter_id": 676059, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -655, "expected_home_runs": 0.2459, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218, "model_over_probability": 0.218, "model_under_probability": 0.782, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8675, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1612, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8388, "edge_over": 0.0513, "edge_under": -0.0855, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 57, "edge_direction_rank": 23, "value_score": 32.2, "value_rank": 24, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "hitter_id": 676059, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2459, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.218, "model_over_probability": 0.218, "model_under_probability": 0.782, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0513, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 24, "value_score": 32.2, "value_rank": 25, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.2341, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087, "model_over_probability": 0.2087, "model_under_probability": 0.7913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.0512, "edge_under": -0.0911, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 59, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": 26.7, "value_rank": 33, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "hitter_id": 681297, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "model_over_probability": 0.2111, "model_under_probability": 0.7889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1539, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8461, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0906, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 60, "edge_direction_rank": 26, "value_score": 28.1, "value_rank": 27, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.2341, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087, "model_over_probability": 0.2087, "model_under_probability": 0.7913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8466, "edge_over": 0.05, "edge_under": -0.0845, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.05, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 61, "edge_direction_rank": 27, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 35, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2341, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2087, "model_over_probability": 0.2087, "model_under_probability": 0.7913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.05, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.05, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 62, "edge_direction_rank": 28, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 36, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "hitter_id": 681297, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "model_over_probability": 0.2111, "model_under_probability": 0.7889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0498, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0498, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 63, "edge_direction_rank": 29, "value_score": 28.0, "value_rank": 30, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": -995, "expected_home_runs": 0.1938, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1762, "model_over_probability": 0.1762, "model_under_probability": 0.8238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9087, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1223, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8777, "edge_over": 0.0496, "edge_under": -0.0849, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0496, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 64, "edge_direction_rank": 30, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": -1060, "expected_home_runs": 0.1938, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1762, "model_over_probability": 0.1762, "model_under_probability": 0.8238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9138, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1217, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8783, "edge_over": 0.0496, "edge_under": -0.09, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0496, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 65, "edge_direction_rank": 31, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1938, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1762, "model_over_probability": 0.1762, "model_under_probability": 0.8238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0496, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0496, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 66, "edge_direction_rank": 32, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "hitter_id": 681297, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "model_over_probability": 0.2111, "model_under_probability": 0.7889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1571, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8429, "edge_over": 0.0485, "edge_under": -0.0837, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 68, "edge_direction_rank": 33, "value_score": 27.9, "value_rank": 31, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": -375, "expected_home_runs": 0.1806, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1652, "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7595, "edge_over": -0.0848, "edge_under": 0.0453, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0453, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 75, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.1834, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1676, "model_over_probability": 0.1676, "model_under_probability": 0.8324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0791, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 76, "edge_direction_rank": 34, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.1834, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1676, "model_over_probability": 0.1676, "model_under_probability": 0.8324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0839, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 77, "edge_direction_rank": 35, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1834, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1676, "model_over_probability": 0.1676, "model_under_probability": 0.8324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0434, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0434, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 82, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "hitter_id": 663624, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": -1110, "expected_home_runs": 0.1754, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1609, "model_over_probability": 0.1609, "model_under_probability": 0.8391, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9174, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8864, "edge_over": 0.0433, "edge_under": -0.0783, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0433, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 83, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -895, "expected_home_runs": 0.0594, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0577, "model_over_probability": 0.0577, "model_under_probability": 0.9423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8995, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1314, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8686, "edge_over": -0.0784, "edge_under": 0.0428, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 85, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "hitter_id": 663624, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": -1175, "expected_home_runs": 0.1754, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1609, "model_over_probability": 0.1609, "model_under_probability": 0.8391, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9216, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8862, "edge_over": 0.0426, "edge_under": -0.0825, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0426, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 86, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "hitter_id": 663624, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1754, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1609, "model_over_probability": 0.1609, "model_under_probability": 0.8391, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0426, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0426, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 87, "edge_direction_rank": 39, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "hitter_id": 694192, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.0894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0855, "model_over_probability": 0.0855, "model_under_probability": 0.9145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8734, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1559, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8441, "edge_over": -0.0758, "edge_under": 0.0411, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0411, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 89, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2584, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277, "model_over_probability": 0.2277, "model_under_probability": 0.7723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": 0.0408, "edge_under": -0.0806, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0408, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 92, "edge_direction_rank": 40, "value_score": 36.2, "value_rank": 17, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1241, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1167, "model_over_probability": 0.1167, "model_under_probability": 0.8833, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": -0.0756, "edge_under": 0.0408, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0408, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 96.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 93, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "hitter_id": 673548, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -555, "expected_home_runs": 0.1202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1133, "model_over_probability": 0.1133, "model_under_probability": 0.8867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8473, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8193, "edge_over": -0.0736, "edge_under": 0.0394, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0394, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 95, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2584, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277, "model_over_probability": 0.2277, "model_under_probability": 0.7723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.039, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.039, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 99, "edge_direction_rank": 41, "value_score": 36.0, "value_rank": 18, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.2104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "model_over_probability": 0.1897, "model_under_probability": 0.8103, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8542, "edge_over": 0.0382, "edge_under": -0.0773, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0382, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 100, "edge_direction_rank": 42, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.0594, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0577, "model_over_probability": 0.0577, "model_under_probability": 0.9423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": -0.0774, "edge_under": 0.0375, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0375, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 103, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.2584, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277, "model_over_probability": 0.2277, "model_under_probability": 0.7723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.184, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.816, "edge_over": 0.0372, "edge_under": -0.0727, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0372, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 106, "edge_direction_rank": 43, "value_score": 35.8, "value_rank": 19, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1128, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1067, "model_over_probability": 0.1067, "model_under_probability": 0.8933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1726, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8274, "edge_over": -0.0719, "edge_under": 0.0372, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0372, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 104, "edge_direction_rank": 12, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.2104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "model_over_probability": 0.1897, "model_under_probability": 0.8103, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1485, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8515, "edge_over": 0.0359, "edge_under": -0.0714, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0359, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 108, "edge_direction_rank": 44, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "model_over_probability": 0.1897, "model_under_probability": 0.8103, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0359, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0359, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 109, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": -1115, "expected_home_runs": 0.1644, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516, "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9177, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1131, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8869, "edge_over": 0.0346, "edge_under": -0.0693, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0346, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 113, "edge_direction_rank": 46, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "hitter_id": 694192, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -735, "expected_home_runs": 0.0894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0855, "model_over_probability": 0.0855, "model_under_probability": 0.9145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8462, "edge_over": -0.0745, "edge_under": 0.0343, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 114, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": -1185, "expected_home_runs": 0.1644, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516, "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9222, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1131, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8869, "edge_over": 0.034, "edge_under": -0.0738, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 115, "edge_direction_rank": 47, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.0869, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0832, "model_over_probability": 0.0832, "model_under_probability": 0.9168, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8536, "edge_over": -0.0683, "edge_under": 0.0338, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0338, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 117, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.0917, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0876, "model_over_probability": 0.0876, "model_under_probability": 0.9124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": -0.0686, "edge_under": 0.0336, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0336, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 118, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1644, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516, "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0333, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0333, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 120, "edge_direction_rank": 48, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1589, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8411, "edge_over": 0.0329, "edge_under": -0.0732, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0329, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 122, "edge_direction_rank": 49, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1241, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1167, "model_over_probability": 0.1167, "model_under_probability": 0.8833, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": -0.072, "edge_under": 0.0326, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0326, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 96.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 123, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.2586, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2279, "model_over_probability": 0.2279, "model_under_probability": 0.7721, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1886, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8114, "edge_over": 0.0318, "edge_under": -0.0717, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0318, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 124, "edge_direction_rank": 50, "value_score": 35.4, "value_rank": 20, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2403, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2136, "model_over_probability": 0.2136, "model_under_probability": 0.7864, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1746, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8254, "edge_over": 0.0318, "edge_under": -0.0728, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0318, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 125, "edge_direction_rank": 51, "value_score": 26.9, "value_rank": 32, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -655, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8675, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1612, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8388, "edge_over": 0.0315, "edge_under": -0.0657, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0315, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 128, "edge_direction_rank": 52, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0315, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0315, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 129, "edge_direction_rank": 53, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1000, "expected_home_runs": 0.1709, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1571, "model_over_probability": 0.1571, "model_under_probability": 0.8429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8784, "edge_over": 0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0662, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0313, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 130, "edge_direction_rank": 54, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1065, "expected_home_runs": 0.1709, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1571, "model_over_probability": 0.1571, "model_under_probability": 0.8429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9142, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.879, "edge_over": 0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0713, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0313, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 131, "edge_direction_rank": 55, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "hitter_id": 673548, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1133, "model_over_probability": 0.1133, "model_under_probability": 0.8867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1779, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8221, "edge_over": -0.0719, "edge_under": 0.0306, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 132, "edge_direction_rank": 17, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1709, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1571, "model_over_probability": 0.1571, "model_under_probability": 0.8429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0305, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0305, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 133, "edge_direction_rank": 56, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.1228, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1156, "model_over_probability": 0.1156, "model_under_probability": 0.8844, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": -0.0646, "edge_under": 0.0304, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0304, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 135, "edge_direction_rank": 18, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 725, "under_odds": -1065, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9142, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8829, "edge_over": 0.0302, "edge_under": -0.0656, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0302, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 136, "edge_direction_rank": 57, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 725, "under_odds": -1130, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9187, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8835, "edge_over": 0.0302, "edge_under": -0.0701, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0302, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 137, "edge_direction_rank": 58, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1362, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1273, "model_over_probability": 0.1273, "model_under_probability": 0.8727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": -0.065, "edge_under": 0.0302, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0302, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 138, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2403, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2136, "model_over_probability": 0.2136, "model_under_probability": 0.7864, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0301, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0301, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": 59, "value_score": 26.7, "value_rank": 34, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2586, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2279, "model_over_probability": 0.2279, "model_under_probability": 0.7721, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0299, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0299, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": 60, "value_score": 35.1, "value_rank": 21, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 720, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.122, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0294, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0294, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 144, "edge_direction_rank": 61, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -635, "expected_home_runs": 0.1128, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1067, "model_over_probability": 0.1067, "model_under_probability": 0.8933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8639, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.17, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.83, "edge_over": -0.0703, "edge_under": 0.0294, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0294, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 143, "edge_direction_rank": 20, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "hitter_id": 641343, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.092, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0879, "model_over_probability": 0.0879, "model_under_probability": 0.9121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8536, "edge_over": -0.0636, "edge_under": 0.0291, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": 21, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1469, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1366, "model_over_probability": 0.1366, "model_under_probability": 0.8634, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": -0.0634, "edge_under": 0.0287, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0287, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 148, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2403, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2136, "model_over_probability": 0.2136, "model_under_probability": 0.7864, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1788, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8212, "edge_over": 0.0284, "edge_under": -0.0643, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0284, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 150, "edge_direction_rank": 62, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 37, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -715, "expected_home_runs": 0.0994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0946, "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8773, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1522, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8478, "edge_over": -0.0629, "edge_under": 0.0281, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0281, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 151, "edge_direction_rank": 23, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2586, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2279, "model_over_probability": 0.2279, "model_under_probability": 0.7721, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": 0.0279, "edge_under": -0.0626, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0279, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 152, "edge_direction_rank": 63, "value_score": 34.9, "value_rank": 22, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "hitter_id": 672820, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -810, "expected_home_runs": 0.0861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0825, "model_over_probability": 0.0825, "model_under_probability": 0.9175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.14, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.86, "edge_over": -0.0624, "edge_under": 0.0274, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0274, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 155, "edge_direction_rank": 24, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "hitter_id": 670042, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.0986, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0939, "model_over_probability": 0.0939, "model_under_probability": 0.9061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": -0.0623, "edge_under": 0.0273, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0273, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 156, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.0917, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0876, "model_over_probability": 0.0876, "model_under_probability": 0.9124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": -0.0674, "edge_under": 0.0273, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0273, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 157, "edge_direction_rank": 26, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.0869, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0832, "model_over_probability": 0.0832, "model_under_probability": 0.9168, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8554, "edge_over": -0.0672, "edge_under": 0.0273, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0273, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 158, "edge_direction_rank": 27, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.1863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.17, "model_over_probability": 0.17, "model_under_probability": 0.83, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": 0.0271, "edge_under": -0.0669, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0271, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 159, "edge_direction_rank": 64, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.163, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1504, "model_over_probability": 0.1504, "model_under_probability": 0.8496, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": 0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0619, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0269, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 161, "edge_direction_rank": 65, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.163, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1504, "model_over_probability": 0.1504, "model_under_probability": 0.8496, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0667, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0269, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 162, "edge_direction_rank": 66, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.2047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1851, "model_over_probability": 0.1851, "model_under_probability": 0.8149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": 0.0264, "edge_under": -0.0661, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 164, "edge_direction_rank": 67, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.163, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1504, "model_over_probability": 0.1504, "model_under_probability": 0.8496, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0262, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0262, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 165, "edge_direction_rank": 68, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.1863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.17, "model_over_probability": 0.17, "model_under_probability": 0.83, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.861, "edge_over": 0.0261, "edge_under": -0.0613, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 166, "edge_direction_rank": 69, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.17, "model_over_probability": 0.17, "model_under_probability": 0.83, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0261, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 167, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": -455, "expected_home_runs": 0.1675, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1542, "model_over_probability": 0.1542, "model_under_probability": 0.8458, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2078, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7922, "edge_over": -0.0609, "edge_under": 0.026, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.026, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 168, "edge_direction_rank": 28, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.1345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1258, "model_over_probability": 0.1258, "model_under_probability": 0.8742, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1805, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8195, "edge_over": -0.0611, "edge_under": 0.0257, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0257, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 169, "edge_direction_rank": 29, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2658, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2334, "model_over_probability": 0.2334, "model_under_probability": 0.7666, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7998, "edge_over": 0.0251, "edge_under": -0.0653, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0251, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 172, "edge_direction_rank": 71, "value_score": 37.4, "value_rank": 13, "value_box_rank": 5, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.1209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1139, "model_over_probability": 0.1139, "model_under_probability": 0.8861, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.168, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.832, "edge_over": -0.06, "edge_under": 0.025, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.025, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 173, "edge_direction_rank": 30, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.1797, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1645, "model_over_probability": 0.1645, "model_under_probability": 0.8355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2169, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7831, "edge_over": -0.0602, "edge_under": 0.0242, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0242, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 174, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.2047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1851, "model_over_probability": 0.1851, "model_under_probability": 0.8149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": 0.0238, "edge_under": -0.0593, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0238, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 176, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1851, "model_over_probability": 0.1851, "model_under_probability": 0.8149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0238, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0238, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "hitter_id": 608701, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.0994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0946, "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1476, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8524, "edge_over": -0.0581, "edge_under": 0.0237, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 178, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -315, "expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175, "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.759, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2652, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7348, "edge_over": -0.0565, "edge_under": 0.0235, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0235, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 179, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034, "model_over_probability": 0.2034, "model_under_probability": 0.7966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8268, "edge_over": 0.0232, "edge_under": -0.0635, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0232, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 180, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2658, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2334, "model_over_probability": 0.2334, "model_under_probability": 0.7666, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0229, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0229, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 181, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "hitter_id": 641343, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.092, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0879, "model_over_probability": 0.0879, "model_under_probability": 0.9121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8554, "edge_over": -0.0625, "edge_under": 0.0226, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0226, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 182, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": -1320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1365, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1276, "model_over_probability": 0.1276, "model_under_probability": 0.8724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1017, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8983, "edge_over": 0.0223, "edge_under": -0.0572, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0223, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 183, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1228, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1156, "model_over_probability": 0.1156, "model_under_probability": 0.8844, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1703, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8297, "edge_over": -0.0614, "edge_under": 0.0223, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0223, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 184, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0921, "model_over_probability": 0.0921, "model_under_probability": 0.9079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": -0.0572, "edge_under": 0.0222, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0222, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 185, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1362, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1273, "model_over_probability": 0.1273, "model_under_probability": 0.8727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": -0.0614, "edge_under": 0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.022, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 186, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 835, "under_odds": -1295, "expected_home_runs": 0.0512, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0499, "model_over_probability": 0.0499, "model_under_probability": 0.9501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.107, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8966, "edge_over": -0.0571, "edge_under": 0.0218, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0218, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 188, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.0994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0946, "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": -0.0616, "edge_under": 0.0217, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0217, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 191, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -830, "expected_home_runs": 0.0897, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0858, "model_over_probability": 0.0858, "model_under_probability": 0.9142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8925, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.862, "edge_over": -0.0571, "edge_under": 0.0217, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0217, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 190, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "hitter_id": 672820, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.0861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0825, "model_over_probability": 0.0825, "model_under_probability": 0.9175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1384, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8616, "edge_over": -0.0614, "edge_under": 0.0217, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0217, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 192, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034, "model_over_probability": 0.2034, "model_under_probability": 0.7966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0216, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0216, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 193, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.0983, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0936, "model_over_probability": 0.0936, "model_under_probability": 0.9064, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8548, "edge_over": -0.0568, "edge_under": 0.0213, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0213, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 194, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 840, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1365, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1276, "model_over_probability": 0.1276, "model_under_probability": 0.8724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1064, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0212, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0212, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 195, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "hitter_id": 670042, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.0986, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0939, "model_over_probability": 0.0939, "model_under_probability": 0.9061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": -0.0611, "edge_under": 0.021, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.021, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 196, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -460, "expected_home_runs": 0.2658, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2334, "model_over_probability": 0.2334, "model_under_probability": 0.7666, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2058, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7942, "edge_over": 0.0206, "edge_under": -0.0548, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0206, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 198, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 835, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1365, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1276, "model_over_probability": 0.1276, "model_under_probability": 0.8724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.107, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1029, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8971, "edge_over": 0.0206, "edge_under": -0.0609, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0206, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 197, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034, "model_over_probability": 0.2034, "model_under_probability": 0.7966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": 0.0199, "edge_under": -0.0553, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0199, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 201, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "hitter_id": 666181, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -755, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1514, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8486, "edge_over": 0.0196, "edge_under": -0.0601, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0196, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 203, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.1469, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1366, "model_over_probability": 0.1366, "model_under_probability": 0.8634, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1886, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8114, "edge_over": -0.0595, "edge_under": 0.0196, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0196, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 202, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "hitter_id": 681807, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.1238, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164, "model_over_probability": 0.1164, "model_under_probability": 0.8836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.835, "edge_over": -0.0545, "edge_under": 0.0187, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0187, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 207, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "hitter_id": 673357, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": -0.0581, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 209, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "hitter_id": 666181, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8466, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": -0.0529, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 210, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "hitter_id": 666181, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 211, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "hitter_id": 669720, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -920, "expected_home_runs": 0.0831, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0797, "model_over_probability": 0.0797, "model_under_probability": 0.9203, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1288, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8712, "edge_over": -0.0536, "edge_under": 0.0183, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 212, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1258, "model_over_probability": 0.1258, "model_under_probability": 0.8742, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1765, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8235, "edge_over": -0.0577, "edge_under": 0.0181, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0181, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 216, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": -1370, "expected_home_runs": 0.0512, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0499, "model_over_probability": 0.0499, "model_under_probability": 0.9501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.932, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1039, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8961, "edge_over": -0.0582, "edge_under": 0.0181, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0181, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 215, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.1209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1139, "model_over_probability": 0.1139, "model_under_probability": 0.8861, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8356, "edge_over": -0.057, "edge_under": 0.0177, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0177, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 219, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_id": 608324, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.194, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763, "model_over_probability": 0.1763, "model_under_probability": 0.8237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": 0.0176, "edge_under": -0.058, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0176, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 220, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "hitter_id": 673357, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0171, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0171, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 223, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "hitter_id": 608701, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.0994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0946, "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1457, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8543, "edge_over": -0.0569, "edge_under": 0.0171, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0171, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 224, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.1675, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1542, "model_over_probability": 0.1542, "model_under_probability": 0.8458, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2025, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7975, "edge_over": -0.0563, "edge_under": 0.0167, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0167, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 228, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_id": 608324, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.194, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763, "model_over_probability": 0.1763, "model_under_probability": 0.8237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8454, "edge_over": 0.0163, "edge_under": -0.0513, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0163, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 233, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_id": 608324, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.194, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763, "model_over_probability": 0.1763, "model_under_probability": 0.8237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0163, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0163, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 234, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0921, "model_over_probability": 0.0921, "model_under_probability": 0.9079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1424, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8576, "edge_over": -0.056, "edge_under": 0.016, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 238, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "hitter_id": 673357, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": 0.0158, "edge_under": -0.0513, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0158, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 239, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.0897, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0858, "model_over_probability": 0.0858, "model_under_probability": 0.9142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": -0.056, "edge_under": 0.0157, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0157, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 240, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "hitter_id": 673237, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.18, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1647, "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8565, "edge_over": 0.0154, "edge_under": -0.056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0154, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 244, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021, "model_over_probability": 0.2021, "model_under_probability": 0.7979, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": 0.0152, "edge_under": -0.055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0152, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 245, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.0983, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0936, "model_over_probability": 0.0936, "model_under_probability": 0.9064, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8575, "edge_over": -0.0545, "edge_under": 0.0151, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 246, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.2344, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.209, "model_over_probability": 0.209, "model_under_probability": 0.791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1867, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8133, "edge_over": 0.0148, "edge_under": -0.0552, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0148, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 249, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1607, "model_over_probability": 0.1607, "model_under_probability": 0.8393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8588, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": -0.049, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 251, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1607, "model_over_probability": 0.1607, "model_under_probability": 0.8393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1403, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8597, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": -0.0554, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 252, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1607, "model_over_probability": 0.1607, "model_under_probability": 0.8393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 253, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "hitter_id": 673237, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.18, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1647, "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8548, "edge_over": 0.0143, "edge_under": -0.0498, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0143, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 257, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yainer Diaz", "hitter_id": 673237, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.18, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1647, "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0143, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0143, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 258, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -675, "expected_home_runs": 0.203, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1837, "model_over_probability": 0.1837, "model_under_probability": 0.8163, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.871, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1629, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8371, "edge_over": 0.0142, "edge_under": -0.0547, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0142, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 259, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -460, "expected_home_runs": 0.1797, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1645, "model_over_probability": 0.1645, "model_under_probability": 0.8355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2111, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7889, "edge_over": -0.0553, "edge_under": 0.0141, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 261, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "hitter_id": 671213, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2179, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1958, "model_over_probability": 0.1958, "model_under_probability": 0.8042, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1746, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8254, "edge_over": 0.014, "edge_under": -0.055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 262, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "hitter_id": 680728, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -865, "expected_home_runs": 0.1713, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1574, "model_over_probability": 0.1574, "model_under_probability": 0.8426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8964, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1383, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8617, "edge_over": 0.0135, "edge_under": -0.0538, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0135, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 267, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021, "model_over_probability": 0.2021, "model_under_probability": 0.7979, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0134, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0134, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 269, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0933, "model_over_probability": 0.0933, "model_under_probability": 0.9067, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0133, "edge_under": -0.0483, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 271, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "hitter_id": 669720, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.0831, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0797, "model_over_probability": 0.0797, "model_under_probability": 0.9203, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8719, "edge_over": -0.0536, "edge_under": 0.0133, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 270, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "hitter_id": 665833, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1628, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1502, "model_over_probability": 0.1502, "model_under_probability": 0.8498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1318, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8682, "edge_over": 0.0132, "edge_under": -0.0526, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 275, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "hitter_id": 683734, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -830, "expected_home_runs": 0.0991, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0943, "model_over_probability": 0.0943, "model_under_probability": 0.9057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8925, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.862, "edge_over": -0.0486, "edge_under": 0.0132, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 273, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2344, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.209, "model_over_probability": 0.209, "model_under_probability": 0.791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0129, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0129, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 281, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -630, "expected_home_runs": 0.203, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1837, "model_over_probability": 0.1837, "model_under_probability": 0.8163, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.863, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8347, "edge_over": 0.0128, "edge_under": -0.0467, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0128, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 282, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.203, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1837, "model_over_probability": 0.1837, "model_under_probability": 0.8163, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0128, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0128, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 283, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -555, "expected_home_runs": 0.1508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14, "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8473, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8193, "edge_over": -0.0469, "edge_under": 0.0127, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0127, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 284, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "hitter_id": 680728, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -810, "expected_home_runs": 0.1713, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1574, "model_over_probability": 0.1574, "model_under_probability": 0.8426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.14, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.86, "edge_over": 0.0125, "edge_under": -0.0475, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 286, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "hitter_id": 680728, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1713, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1574, "model_over_probability": 0.1574, "model_under_probability": 0.8426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0125, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 287, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1566, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.145, "model_over_probability": 0.145, "model_under_probability": 0.855, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": -0.0473, "edge_under": 0.0125, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 288, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "hitter_id": 671213, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2179, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1958, "model_over_probability": 0.1958, "model_under_probability": 0.8042, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1774, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8226, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": -0.0465, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 295, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "hitter_id": 671213, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2179, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1958, "model_over_probability": 0.1958, "model_under_probability": 0.8042, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 296, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "hitter_id": 665833, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.1628, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1502, "model_over_probability": 0.1502, "model_under_probability": 0.8498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8667, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": -0.0471, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 293, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "hitter_id": 665833, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1628, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1502, "model_over_probability": 0.1502, "model_under_probability": 0.8498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 294, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1135, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0933, "model_over_probability": 0.0933, "model_under_probability": 0.9067, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.081, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 291, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "hitter_id": 681807, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1238, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164, "model_over_probability": 0.1164, "model_under_probability": 0.8836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1617, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8383, "edge_over": -0.0517, "edge_under": 0.0118, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0118, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 300, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1125, "under_odds": -2295, "expected_home_runs": 0.0979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0933, "model_over_probability": 0.0933, "model_under_probability": 0.9067, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0785, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9215, "edge_over": 0.0117, "edge_under": -0.0515, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0117, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 302, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021, "model_over_probability": 0.2021, "model_under_probability": 0.7979, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.184, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.816, "edge_over": 0.0116, "edge_under": -0.0471, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0116, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 304, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -510, "expected_home_runs": 0.1653, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1524, "model_over_probability": 0.1524, "model_under_probability": 0.8476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8361, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1915, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8085, "edge_over": -0.0456, "edge_under": 0.0115, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0115, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 308, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.1065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.101, "model_over_probability": 0.101, "model_under_probability": 0.899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1422, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8578, "edge_over": -0.0461, "edge_under": 0.0114, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 309, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0342, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0336, "model_over_probability": 0.0336, "model_under_probability": 0.9664, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0464, "edge_under": 0.0114, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 310, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.155, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1436, "model_over_probability": 0.1436, "model_under_probability": 0.8564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0111, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0111, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 318, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.155, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1436, "model_over_probability": 0.1436, "model_under_probability": 0.8564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": 0.0111, "edge_under": -0.051, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0111, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 319, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 865, "under_odds": -1360, "expected_home_runs": 0.0591, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0574, "model_over_probability": 0.0574, "model_under_probability": 0.9426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1036, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9315, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1001, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8999, "edge_over": -0.0462, "edge_under": 0.0111, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0111, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 317, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2344, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.209, "model_over_probability": 0.209, "model_under_probability": 0.791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": 0.011, "edge_under": -0.0464, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 321, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -435, "expected_home_runs": 0.1935, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759, "model_over_probability": 0.1759, "model_under_probability": 0.8241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8131, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7854, "edge_over": -0.0463, "edge_under": 0.011, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 322, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "hitter_id": 666971, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0105, "edge_under": -0.0504, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0105, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 328, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.155, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1436, "model_over_probability": 0.1436, "model_under_probability": 0.8564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0103, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0103, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 330, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -340, "expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175, "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2566, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7434, "edge_over": -0.0492, "edge_under": 0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 336, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1731, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1589, "model_over_probability": 0.1589, "model_under_probability": 0.8411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": 0.0096, "edge_under": -0.0496, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 340, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "hitter_id": 666971, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -715, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8773, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1522, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8478, "edge_over": 0.0092, "edge_under": -0.044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 342, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "hitter_id": 666971, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0092, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 343, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.18, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1647, "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2014, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7986, "edge_over": -0.0436, "edge_under": 0.0092, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 346, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "hitter_id": 807799, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": -1375, "expected_home_runs": 0.1186, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1118, "model_over_probability": 0.1118, "model_under_probability": 0.8882, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9322, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0991, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9009, "edge_over": 0.0092, "edge_under": -0.044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 345, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "hitter_id": 691718, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -800, "expected_home_runs": 0.1749, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1605, "model_over_probability": 0.1605, "model_under_probability": 0.8395, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8544, "edge_over": 0.009, "edge_under": -0.0494, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 347, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "hitter_id": 657656, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.1338, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1252, "model_over_probability": 0.1252, "model_under_probability": 0.8748, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1637, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8363, "edge_over": -0.0443, "edge_under": 0.009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 348, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1015, "expected_home_runs": 0.0844, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0809, "model_over_probability": 0.0809, "model_under_probability": 0.9191, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9103, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1201, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8799, "edge_over": -0.0433, "edge_under": 0.0088, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 351, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1731, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1589, "model_over_probability": 0.1589, "model_under_probability": 0.8411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8548, "edge_over": 0.0085, "edge_under": -0.044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 355, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1731, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1589, "model_over_probability": 0.1589, "model_under_probability": 0.8411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0085, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 356, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1000, "expected_home_runs": 0.0863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0827, "model_over_probability": 0.0827, "model_under_probability": 0.9173, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8784, "edge_over": -0.0431, "edge_under": 0.0082, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0082, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 358, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -415, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8058, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.222, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.778, "edge_over": -0.0437, "edge_under": 0.008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 362, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "hitter_id": 691718, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.1749, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1605, "model_over_probability": 0.1605, "model_under_probability": 0.8395, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1475, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8525, "edge_over": 0.0078, "edge_under": -0.0429, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0078, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 365, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "hitter_id": 691718, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1749, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1605, "model_over_probability": 0.1605, "model_under_probability": 0.8395, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0078, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 366, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "hitter_id": 683734, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -880, "expected_home_runs": 0.0991, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0943, "model_over_probability": 0.0943, "model_under_probability": 0.9057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.898, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1364, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8636, "edge_over": -0.0475, "edge_under": 0.0077, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 367, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 850, "under_odds": -1435, "expected_home_runs": 0.0591, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0574, "model_over_probability": 0.0574, "model_under_probability": 0.9426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1053, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1012, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8988, "edge_over": -0.0479, "edge_under": 0.0077, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 368, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "hitter_id": 807799, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 860, "under_odds": -1455, "expected_home_runs": 0.1186, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1118, "model_over_probability": 0.1118, "model_under_probability": 0.8882, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1042, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9357, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8998, "edge_over": 0.0076, "edge_under": -0.0475, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0076, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 373, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "hitter_id": 807799, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 860, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1186, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1118, "model_over_probability": 0.1118, "model_under_probability": 0.8882, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1042, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0076, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0076, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 374, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.1119, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1059, "model_over_probability": 0.1059, "model_under_probability": 0.8941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": -0.0422, "edge_under": 0.0071, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0071, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 379, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "hitter_id": 663698, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 835, "under_odds": -1290, "expected_home_runs": 0.1207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1137, "model_over_probability": 0.1137, "model_under_probability": 0.8863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.107, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9281, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8966, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": -0.0418, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 383, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0342, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0336, "model_over_probability": 0.0336, "model_under_probability": 0.9664, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0464, "edge_under": 0.0064, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 385, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.259, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2282, "model_over_probability": 0.2282, "model_under_probability": 0.7718, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7861, "edge_over": 0.006, "edge_under": -0.0447, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 390, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -665, "expected_home_runs": 0.1334, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1249, "model_over_probability": 0.1249, "model_under_probability": 0.8751, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8693, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1598, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8402, "edge_over": -0.0404, "edge_under": 0.0058, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0058, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 392, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.1538, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1426, "model_over_probability": 0.1426, "model_under_probability": 0.8574, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1324, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8676, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.04, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 398, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.1538, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1426, "model_over_probability": 0.1426, "model_under_probability": 0.8574, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0455, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 399, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "hitter_id": 663698, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": -1365, "expected_home_runs": 0.1207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1137, "model_over_probability": 0.1137, "model_under_probability": 0.8863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9317, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.896, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0454, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 396, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "hitter_id": 663698, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1137, "model_over_probability": 0.1137, "model_under_probability": 0.8863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 397, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.189, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722, "model_over_probability": 0.1722, "model_under_probability": 0.8278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1601, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8399, "edge_over": 0.0055, "edge_under": -0.0464, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 401, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -840, "expected_home_runs": 0.1065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.101, "model_over_probability": 0.101, "model_under_probability": 0.899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8936, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": -0.045, "edge_under": 0.0054, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0054, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 403, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.1773, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1625, "model_over_probability": 0.1625, "model_under_probability": 0.8375, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.005, "edge_under": -0.0449, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 407, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": -1105, "expected_home_runs": 0.0813, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0781, "model_over_probability": 0.0781, "model_under_probability": 0.9219, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.917, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8863, "edge_over": -0.0395, "edge_under": 0.0049, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0049, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 408, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "hitter_id": 682626, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1428, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1331, "model_over_probability": 0.1331, "model_under_probability": 0.8669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8333, "edge_over": -0.0393, "edge_under": 0.0048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 410, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1538, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1426, "model_over_probability": 0.1426, "model_under_probability": 0.8574, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0047, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0047, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 415, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1566, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.145, "model_over_probability": 0.145, "model_under_probability": 0.855, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": -0.0437, "edge_under": 0.0043, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0043, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 417, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.189, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722, "model_over_probability": 0.1722, "model_under_probability": 0.8278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1624, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8376, "edge_over": 0.0041, "edge_under": -0.0389, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 420, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.189, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722, "model_over_probability": 0.1722, "model_under_probability": 0.8278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0041, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 421, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.1508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14, "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1765, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8235, "edge_over": -0.0435, "edge_under": 0.0039, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0039, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 424, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.1773, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1625, "model_over_probability": 0.1625, "model_under_probability": 0.8375, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8466, "edge_over": 0.0038, "edge_under": -0.0383, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 428, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1773, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1625, "model_over_probability": 0.1625, "model_under_probability": 0.8375, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0038, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 429, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "hitter_id": 669357, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1762, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": -0.0385, "edge_under": 0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 427, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.0844, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0809, "model_over_probability": 0.0809, "model_under_probability": 0.9191, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1202, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8798, "edge_over": -0.0441, "edge_under": 0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 425, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.244, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2165, "model_over_probability": 0.2165, "model_under_probability": 0.7835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2045, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7955, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0441, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 430, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "hitter_id": 518595, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -805, "expected_home_runs": 0.1129, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1068, "model_over_probability": 0.1068, "model_under_probability": 0.8932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.141, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.859, "edge_over": -0.0392, "edge_under": 0.0037, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 431, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -665, "expected_home_runs": 0.1917, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8693, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1643, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8357, "edge_over": 0.0035, "edge_under": -0.0437, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0035, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 434, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": -1065, "expected_home_runs": 0.0863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0827, "model_over_probability": 0.0827, "model_under_probability": 0.9173, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9142, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.879, "edge_over": -0.0431, "edge_under": 0.0031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 435, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "hitter_id": 609280, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 840, "under_odds": -1305, "expected_home_runs": 0.0706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0682, "model_over_probability": 0.0682, "model_under_probability": 0.9318, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1064, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9288, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1028, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8972, "edge_over": -0.0382, "edge_under": 0.003, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.003, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 440, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.156, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1444, "model_over_probability": 0.1444, "model_under_probability": 0.8556, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1757, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8243, "edge_over": -0.0374, "edge_under": 0.0027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0027, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 444, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1352, "model_over_probability": 0.1352, "model_under_probability": 0.8648, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8333, "edge_over": -0.0372, "edge_under": 0.0027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0027, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 446, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.1653, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1524, "model_over_probability": 0.1524, "model_under_probability": 0.8476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8131, "edge_over": -0.0418, "edge_under": 0.0026, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0026, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 449, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "hitter_id": 683146, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.1075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1019, "model_over_probability": 0.1019, "model_under_probability": 0.8981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8649, "edge_over": -0.038, "edge_under": 0.0023, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0023, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 452, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1917, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8333, "edge_over": 0.002, "edge_under": -0.0365, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 457, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1917, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 458, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2089, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885, "model_over_probability": 0.1885, "model_under_probability": 0.8115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": 0.0016, "edge_under": -0.0414, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 465, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.244, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2165, "model_over_probability": 0.2165, "model_under_probability": 0.7835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0014, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 467, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "hitter_id": 657656, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.1338, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1252, "model_over_probability": 0.1252, "model_under_probability": 0.8748, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8734, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1603, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8397, "edge_over": -0.0415, "edge_under": 0.0014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 469, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "hitter_id": 682657, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 935, "under_odds": -1520, "expected_home_runs": 0.0623, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0604, "model_over_probability": 0.0604, "model_under_probability": 0.9396, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0966, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9383, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9067, "edge_over": -0.0362, "edge_under": 0.0013, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 471, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.1119, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1059, "model_over_probability": 0.1059, "model_under_probability": 0.8941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1414, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8586, "edge_over": -0.0412, "edge_under": 0.0011, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 474, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.259, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2282, "model_over_probability": 0.2282, "model_under_probability": 0.7718, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0009, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 476, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.1498, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1391, "model_over_probability": 0.1391, "model_under_probability": 0.8609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1682, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8318, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": 0.0008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 477, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.1504, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1396, "model_over_probability": 0.1396, "model_under_probability": 0.8604, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0007, "edge_under": -0.0354, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0007, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 478, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -915, "expected_home_runs": 0.1504, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1396, "model_over_probability": 0.1396, "model_under_probability": 0.8604, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9015, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8665, "edge_over": 0.0007, "edge_under": -0.0411, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0007, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 479, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.18, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1647, "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0394, "edge_under": 0.0006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 482, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": -1170, "expected_home_runs": 0.0813, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0781, "model_over_probability": 0.0781, "model_under_probability": 0.9219, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9213, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8862, "edge_over": -0.0402, "edge_under": 0.0006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 480, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.1523, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1413, "model_over_probability": 0.1413, "model_under_probability": 0.8587, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1354, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8646, "edge_over": 0.0005, "edge_under": -0.0403, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 485, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2089, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885, "model_over_probability": 0.1885, "model_under_probability": 0.8115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 489, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1504, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1396, "model_over_probability": 0.1396, "model_under_probability": 0.8604, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0003, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0003, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 488, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.1935, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759, "model_over_probability": 0.1759, "model_under_probability": 0.8241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2069, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7931, "edge_over": -0.0392, "edge_under": -0.0005, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 487, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -840, "expected_home_runs": 0.1523, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1413, "model_over_probability": 0.1413, "model_under_probability": 0.8587, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8936, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.863, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": -0.0349, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 484, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1523, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1413, "model_over_probability": 0.1413, "model_under_probability": 0.8587, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 486, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.2098, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "model_over_probability": 0.1893, "model_under_probability": 0.8107, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.215, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.785, "edge_over": -0.0329, "edge_under": -0.0006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 481, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "hitter_id": 609280, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 830, "under_odds": -1380, "expected_home_runs": 0.0706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0682, "model_over_probability": 0.0682, "model_under_probability": 0.9318, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1075, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8966, "edge_over": -0.0393, "edge_under": -0.0006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 483, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.244, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2165, "model_over_probability": 0.2165, "model_under_probability": 0.7835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2099, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7901, "edge_over": -0.0009, "edge_under": -0.0347, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 475, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1603, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1481, "model_over_probability": 0.1481, "model_under_probability": 0.8519, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": -0.0012, "edge_under": -0.0388, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0012, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 472, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.1164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1099, "model_over_probability": 0.1099, "model_under_probability": 0.8901, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.861, "edge_over": -0.034, "edge_under": -0.0012, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0012, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 473, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 510, "under_odds": -710, "expected_home_runs": 0.1334, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1249, "model_over_probability": 0.1249, "model_under_probability": 0.8751, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8765, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8425, "edge_over": -0.039, "edge_under": -0.0014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 468, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "hitter_id": 656716, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 880, "under_odds": -1385, "expected_home_runs": 0.0712, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0687, "model_over_probability": 0.0687, "model_under_probability": 0.9313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.102, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0986, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9014, "edge_over": -0.0333, "edge_under": -0.0014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 470, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0476, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0465, "model_over_probability": 0.0465, "model_under_probability": 0.9535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0335, "edge_under": -0.0015, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 466, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -415, "expected_home_runs": 0.259, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2282, "model_over_probability": 0.2282, "model_under_probability": 0.7718, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8058, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.222, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.778, "edge_over": -0.0017, "edge_under": -0.034, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 460, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.1509, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1401, "model_over_probability": 0.1401, "model_under_probability": 0.8599, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.863, "edge_over": -0.0017, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 461, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1509, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1401, "model_over_probability": 0.1401, "model_under_probability": 0.8599, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": -0.0017, "edge_under": -0.0386, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 462, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1509, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1401, "model_over_probability": 0.1401, "model_under_probability": 0.8599, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0017, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 463, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -765, "expected_home_runs": 0.1248, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1173, "model_over_probability": 0.1173, "model_under_probability": 0.8827, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8844, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1453, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8547, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0017, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 464, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "hitter_id": 682657, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 915, "under_odds": -1610, "expected_home_runs": 0.0623, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0604, "model_over_probability": 0.0604, "model_under_probability": 0.9396, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0985, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9415, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": -0.0381, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 459, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.2089, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885, "model_over_probability": 0.1885, "model_under_probability": 0.8115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.184, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.816, "edge_over": -0.002, "edge_under": -0.0335, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 456, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "hitter_id": 518595, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -855, "expected_home_runs": 0.1129, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1068, "model_over_probability": 0.1068, "model_under_probability": 0.8932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8953, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1393, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8607, "edge_over": -0.0381, "edge_under": -0.0021, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0021, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 455, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -765, "expected_home_runs": 0.1603, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1481, "model_over_probability": 0.1481, "model_under_probability": 0.8519, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8844, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1453, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8547, "edge_over": -0.0023, "edge_under": -0.0325, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0023, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 453, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1603, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1481, "model_over_probability": 0.1481, "model_under_probability": 0.8519, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0023, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0023, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 454, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "hitter_id": 682626, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -665, "expected_home_runs": 0.1428, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1331, "model_over_probability": 0.1331, "model_under_probability": 0.8669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8693, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1643, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8357, "edge_over": -0.0378, "edge_under": -0.0024, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0024, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 451, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": -370, "expected_home_runs": 0.2424, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153, "model_over_probability": 0.2153, "model_under_probability": 0.7847, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.759, "edge_over": -0.0347, "edge_under": -0.0025, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0025, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 450, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7861, "edge_over": -0.036, "edge_under": -0.0027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0027, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 445, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "hitter_id": 680777, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1476, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1372, "model_over_probability": 0.1372, "model_under_probability": 0.8628, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1352, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8648, "edge_over": -0.0027, "edge_under": -0.0319, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0027, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 447, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "hitter_id": 680777, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.1476, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1372, "model_over_probability": 0.1372, "model_under_probability": 0.8628, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": -0.0027, "edge_under": -0.0377, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0027, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 448, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2327, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076, "model_over_probability": 0.2076, "model_under_probability": 0.7924, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2025, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7975, "edge_over": -0.0029, "edge_under": -0.0367, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0029, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 443, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 510, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.1756, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.161, "model_over_probability": 0.161, "model_under_probability": 0.839, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1576, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8424, "edge_over": -0.0029, "edge_under": -0.0368, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0029, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 441, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "hitter_id": 683146, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.1075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1019, "model_over_probability": 0.1019, "model_under_probability": 0.8981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1336, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8664, "edge_over": -0.037, "edge_under": -0.0029, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0029, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 442, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.1437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1339, "model_over_probability": 0.1339, "model_under_probability": 0.8661, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": -0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0368, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 439, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "hitter_id": 641584, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 660, "under_odds": -935, "expected_home_runs": 0.1375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1285, "model_over_probability": 0.1285, "model_under_probability": 0.8715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1316, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9034, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1271, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8729, "edge_over": -0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0319, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 436, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "hitter_id": 641584, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 660, "under_odds": -995, "expected_home_runs": 0.1375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1285, "model_over_probability": 0.1285, "model_under_probability": 0.8715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1316, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9087, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1265, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8735, "edge_over": -0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0372, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 437, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "hitter_id": 641584, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 660, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1285, "model_over_probability": 0.1285, "model_under_probability": 0.8715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1316, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0031, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 438, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "hitter_id": 680777, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1476, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1372, "model_over_probability": 0.1372, "model_under_probability": 0.8628, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0036, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0036, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 433, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.1613, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.149, "model_over_probability": 0.149, "model_under_probability": 0.851, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8531, "edge_over": -0.0037, "edge_under": -0.036, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 432, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.1485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138, "model_over_probability": 0.138, "model_under_probability": 0.862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1637, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8363, "edge_over": -0.0315, "edge_under": -0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 426, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.1437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1339, "model_over_probability": 0.1339, "model_under_probability": 0.8661, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1332, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8668, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0313, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 422, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1339, "model_over_probability": 0.1339, "model_under_probability": 0.8661, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 423, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -970, "expected_home_runs": 0.1325, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1241, "model_over_probability": 0.1241, "model_under_probability": 0.8759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9065, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8761, "edge_over": -0.0041, "edge_under": -0.0306, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 418, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.1325, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1241, "model_over_probability": 0.1241, "model_under_probability": 0.8759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1233, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8767, "edge_over": -0.0041, "edge_under": -0.0356, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 419, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -665, "expected_home_runs": 0.1453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1352, "model_over_probability": 0.1352, "model_under_probability": 0.8648, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8693, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1643, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8357, "edge_over": -0.0357, "edge_under": -0.0045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 416, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": -0.0047, "edge_under": -0.0353, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0047, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 414, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1613, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.149, "model_over_probability": 0.149, "model_under_probability": 0.851, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0048, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 412, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "hitter_id": 656716, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 865, "under_odds": -1465, "expected_home_runs": 0.0712, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0687, "model_over_probability": 0.0687, "model_under_probability": 0.9313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1036, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9361, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0996, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9004, "edge_over": -0.0349, "edge_under": -0.0048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 413, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 960, "under_odds": -1585, "expected_home_runs": 0.0663, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0641, "model_over_probability": 0.0641, "model_under_probability": 0.9359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9407, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0911, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9089, "edge_over": -0.0302, "edge_under": -0.0048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 411, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 675, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1325, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1241, "model_over_probability": 0.1241, "model_under_probability": 0.8759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.129, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0049, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0049, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 409, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2327, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076, "model_over_probability": 0.2076, "model_under_probability": 0.7924, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0052, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 406, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -410, "expected_home_runs": 0.2614, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.23, "model_over_probability": 0.23, "model_under_probability": 0.77, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8039, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2264, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7736, "edge_over": -0.0053, "edge_under": -0.0339, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0053, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 405, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "hitter_id": 669357, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.1762, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1886, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8114, "edge_over": -0.0346, "edge_under": -0.0053, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0053, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 404, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.156, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1444, "model_over_probability": 0.1444, "model_under_probability": 0.8556, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1718, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8282, "edge_over": -0.0342, "edge_under": -0.0055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 400, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "hitter_id": 602104, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": -1100, "expected_home_runs": 0.093, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0888, "model_over_probability": 0.0888, "model_under_probability": 0.9112, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1143, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8857, "edge_over": -0.0295, "edge_under": -0.0055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 402, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.1756, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.161, "model_over_probability": 0.161, "model_under_probability": 0.839, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.161, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.839, "edge_over": -0.0057, "edge_under": -0.0294, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 394, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1756, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.161, "model_over_probability": 0.161, "model_under_probability": 0.839, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0057, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 395, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 305, "under_odds": -375, "expected_home_runs": 0.2437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163, "model_over_probability": 0.2163, "model_under_probability": 0.7837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2469, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2382, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7618, "edge_over": -0.0306, "edge_under": -0.0058, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0058, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 393, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -735, "expected_home_runs": 0.1613, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.149, "model_over_probability": 0.149, "model_under_probability": 0.851, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1497, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8503, "edge_over": -0.006, "edge_under": -0.0292, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 391, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "hitter_id": 686527, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.167, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1538, "model_over_probability": 0.1538, "model_under_probability": 0.8462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1539, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8461, "edge_over": -0.0062, "edge_under": -0.0333, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 389, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.1363, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1274, "model_over_probability": 0.1274, "model_under_probability": 0.8726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": -0.0288, "edge_under": -0.0062, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 388, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0064, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 387, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "hitter_id": 691023, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 815, "under_odds": -1245, "expected_home_runs": 0.1086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1029, "model_over_probability": 0.1029, "model_under_probability": 0.8971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1093, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9257, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1056, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8944, "edge_over": -0.0064, "edge_under": -0.0286, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 386, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0476, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0465, "model_over_probability": 0.0465, "model_under_probability": 0.9535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0335, "edge_under": -0.0065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0065, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 384, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2426, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "model_over_probability": 0.2154, "model_under_probability": 0.7846, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7861, "edge_over": -0.0068, "edge_under": -0.0319, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0068, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 382, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.1164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1099, "model_over_probability": 0.1099, "model_under_probability": 0.8901, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": -0.033, "edge_under": -0.0068, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0068, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 381, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "hitter_id": 686611, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1035, "expected_home_runs": 0.0998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.095, "model_over_probability": 0.095, "model_under_probability": 0.905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9119, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": -0.0285, "edge_under": -0.0069, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0069, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 380, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.115, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1086, "model_over_probability": 0.1086, "model_under_probability": 0.8914, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8685, "edge_over": -0.0275, "edge_under": -0.0071, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0071, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 378, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": -455, "expected_home_runs": 0.2327, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076, "model_over_probability": 0.2076, "model_under_probability": 0.7924, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2078, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7922, "edge_over": -0.0075, "edge_under": -0.0274, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 377, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "hitter_id": 686527, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.167, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1538, "model_over_probability": 0.1538, "model_under_probability": 0.8462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0075, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 375, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.1498, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1391, "model_over_probability": 0.1391, "model_under_probability": 0.8609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1656, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8344, "edge_over": -0.0333, "edge_under": -0.0075, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 376, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "hitter_id": 691023, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": -1320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1029, "model_over_probability": 0.1029, "model_under_probability": 0.8971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8938, "edge_over": -0.0076, "edge_under": -0.0325, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0076, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 370, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "hitter_id": 691023, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1029, "model_over_probability": 0.1029, "model_under_probability": 0.8971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0076, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0076, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 371, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "hitter_id": 677588, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.054, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0526, "model_over_probability": 0.0526, "model_under_probability": 0.9474, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0274, "edge_under": -0.0076, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0076, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 372, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -435, "expected_home_runs": 0.2164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "model_over_probability": 0.1946, "model_under_probability": 0.8054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8131, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7854, "edge_over": -0.0276, "edge_under": -0.0077, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 369, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 940, "under_odds": -1675, "expected_home_runs": 0.0663, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0641, "model_over_probability": 0.0641, "model_under_probability": 0.9359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0962, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9437, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0925, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9075, "edge_over": -0.0321, "edge_under": -0.0078, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 364, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1248, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1173, "model_over_probability": 0.1173, "model_under_probability": 0.8827, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": -0.032, "edge_under": -0.008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 363, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2614, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.23, "model_over_probability": 0.23, "model_under_probability": 0.77, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0081, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 360, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1788, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8212, "edge_over": -0.0081, "edge_under": -0.0278, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 361, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "hitter_id": 608348, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -880, "expected_home_runs": 0.1166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1101, "model_over_probability": 0.1101, "model_under_probability": 0.8899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.898, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1324, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8676, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0081, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 359, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -635, "expected_home_runs": 0.183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1672, "model_over_probability": 0.1672, "model_under_probability": 0.8328, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8639, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1688, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8312, "edge_over": -0.0082, "edge_under": -0.0311, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0082, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 357, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.139, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1298, "model_over_probability": 0.1298, "model_under_probability": 0.8702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": -0.0264, "edge_under": -0.0086, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0086, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 354, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "hitter_id": 686527, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.167, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1538, "model_over_probability": 0.1538, "model_under_probability": 0.8462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1571, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8429, "edge_over": -0.0088, "edge_under": -0.0264, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 352, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "hitter_id": 624641, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.1394, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1301, "model_over_probability": 0.1301, "model_under_probability": 0.8699, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1336, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8664, "edge_over": -0.0088, "edge_under": -0.0311, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 353, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2121, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911, "model_over_probability": 0.1911, "model_under_probability": 0.8089, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1925, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8075, "edge_over": -0.0089, "edge_under": -0.0298, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 350, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "hitter_id": 669257, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1461, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1359, "model_over_probability": 0.1359, "model_under_probability": 0.8641, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8606, "edge_over": -0.009, "edge_under": -0.0306, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 349, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "hitter_id": 668901, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.1875, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.171, "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1734, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8266, "edge_over": -0.0092, "edge_under": -0.0302, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 344, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.1932, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1757, "model_over_probability": 0.1757, "model_under_probability": 0.8243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8218, "edge_over": -0.0095, "edge_under": -0.0297, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0095, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 341, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1763, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8237, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": -0.031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 339, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "hitter_id": 602104, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 740, "under_odds": -1165, "expected_home_runs": 0.093, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0888, "model_over_probability": 0.0888, "model_under_probability": 0.9112, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.119, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9209, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1144, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8856, "edge_over": -0.0302, "edge_under": -0.0097, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 337, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": -0.0097, "edge_under": -0.0252, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 338, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1672, "model_over_probability": 0.1672, "model_under_probability": 0.8328, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0098, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0098, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 333, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "hitter_id": 624641, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -855, "expected_home_runs": 0.1394, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1301, "model_over_probability": 0.1301, "model_under_probability": 0.8699, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8953, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8649, "edge_over": -0.0098, "edge_under": -0.0254, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0098, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 334, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "hitter_id": 624641, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1394, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1301, "model_over_probability": 0.1301, "model_under_probability": 0.8699, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0098, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0098, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 335, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "hitter_id": 669257, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -800, "expected_home_runs": 0.1461, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1359, "model_over_probability": 0.1359, "model_under_probability": 0.8641, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1411, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8589, "edge_over": -0.0101, "edge_under": -0.0248, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0101, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 331, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "hitter_id": 669257, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1461, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1359, "model_over_probability": 0.1359, "model_under_probability": 0.8641, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0101, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0101, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 332, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 760, "under_odds": -1130, "expected_home_runs": 0.0962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0917, "model_over_probability": 0.0917, "model_under_probability": 0.9083, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1163, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9187, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1124, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8876, "edge_over": -0.0246, "edge_under": -0.0104, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0104, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 329, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0719, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0694, "model_over_probability": 0.0694, "model_under_probability": 0.9306, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0106, "edge_under": -0.0244, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0106, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 325, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0719, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0694, "model_over_probability": 0.0694, "model_under_probability": 0.9306, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0106, "edge_under": -0.0294, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0106, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 326, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0719, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0694, "model_over_probability": 0.0694, "model_under_probability": 0.9306, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0106, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0106, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 327, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "hitter_id": 668901, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1875, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.171, "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0108, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0108, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 324, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -385, "expected_home_runs": 0.2614, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.23, "model_over_probability": 0.23, "model_under_probability": 0.77, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7938, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2329, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7671, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 323, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -425, "expected_home_runs": 0.247, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "model_over_probability": 0.2189, "model_under_probability": 0.7811, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8095, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2212, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7788, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": -0.0284, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 320, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "hitter_id": 677588, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1130, "under_odds": -2315, "expected_home_runs": 0.054, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0526, "model_over_probability": 0.0526, "model_under_probability": 0.9474, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0813, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9586, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9218, "edge_over": -0.0287, "edge_under": -0.0112, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 316, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0113, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0113, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 315, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "hitter_id": 686611, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.0998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.095, "model_over_probability": 0.095, "model_under_probability": 0.905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": -0.0285, "edge_under": -0.0113, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0113, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 314, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1672, "model_over_probability": 0.1672, "model_under_probability": 0.8328, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1726, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8274, "edge_over": -0.0114, "edge_under": -0.0233, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 311, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.1485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138, "model_over_probability": 0.138, "model_under_probability": 0.862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8734, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1603, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8397, "edge_over": -0.0287, "edge_under": -0.0114, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 312, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0114, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 313, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0708, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0684, "model_over_probability": 0.0684, "model_under_probability": 0.9316, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0116, "edge_under": -0.0234, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0116, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 305, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0708, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0684, "model_over_probability": 0.0684, "model_under_probability": 0.9316, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0116, "edge_under": -0.0284, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0116, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 306, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0708, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0684, "model_over_probability": 0.0684, "model_under_probability": 0.9316, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0116, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0116, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 307, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 596142, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1667, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1535, "model_over_probability": 0.1535, "model_under_probability": 0.8465, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": -0.0235, "edge_under": -0.0117, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0117, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 303, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.1121, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.106, "model_over_probability": 0.106, "model_under_probability": 0.894, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1254, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8746, "edge_over": -0.0239, "edge_under": -0.0117, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0117, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 301, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2426, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "model_over_probability": 0.2154, "model_under_probability": 0.7846, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0119, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0119, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 299, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2038, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844, "model_over_probability": 0.1844, "model_under_probability": 0.8156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2011, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7989, "edge_over": -0.0239, "edge_under": -0.012, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.012, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 298, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 975, "under_odds": -1790, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.093, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9471, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9106, "edge_over": -0.0122, "edge_under": -0.0279, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0122, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 297, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2098, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "model_over_probability": 0.1893, "model_under_probability": 0.8107, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": -0.0281, "edge_under": -0.0123, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 292, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -940, "expected_home_runs": 0.115, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1086, "model_over_probability": 0.1086, "model_under_probability": 0.8914, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9038, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1309, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8691, "edge_over": -0.0275, "edge_under": -0.0124, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0124, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 290, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "hitter_id": 668901, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.1875, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.171, "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": -0.0125, "edge_under": -0.0229, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0125, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 289, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1535, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1423, "model_over_probability": 0.1423, "model_under_probability": 0.8577, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": -0.0127, "edge_under": -0.0274, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0127, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 285, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2121, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911, "model_over_probability": 0.1911, "model_under_probability": 0.8089, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 280, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.1932, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1757, "model_over_probability": 0.1757, "model_under_probability": 0.8243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1823, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8177, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": -0.0219, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 277, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1932, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1757, "model_over_probability": 0.1757, "model_under_probability": 0.8243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 278, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1805, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8195, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": -0.0224, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 279, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.1363, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1274, "model_over_probability": 0.1274, "model_under_probability": 0.8726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8511, "edge_over": -0.0276, "edge_under": -0.0131, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0131, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 276, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.1934, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758, "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": -0.0222, "edge_under": -0.0132, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 274, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -395, "expected_home_runs": 0.2424, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153, "model_over_probability": 0.2153, "model_under_probability": 0.7847, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.232, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.768, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0133, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 272, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "hitter_id": 608348, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -935, "expected_home_runs": 0.1166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1101, "model_over_probability": 0.1101, "model_under_probability": 0.8899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9034, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0135, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0135, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 268, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.247, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "model_over_probability": 0.2189, "model_under_probability": 0.7811, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0137, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0137, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 266, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.2406, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138, "model_over_probability": 0.2138, "model_under_probability": 0.7862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7727, "edge_over": -0.0215, "edge_under": -0.0138, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0138, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 265, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -720, "expected_home_runs": 0.1535, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1423, "model_over_probability": 0.1423, "model_under_probability": 0.8577, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.151, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.849, "edge_over": -0.0139, "edge_under": -0.0203, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 263, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1535, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1423, "model_over_probability": 0.1423, "model_under_probability": 0.8577, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0139, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 264, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 900, "under_odds": -1435, "expected_home_runs": 0.0898, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0859, "model_over_probability": 0.0859, "model_under_probability": 0.9141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0966, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9034, "edge_over": -0.0141, "edge_under": -0.0208, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 260, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -415, "expected_home_runs": 0.2426, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2154, "model_over_probability": 0.2154, "model_under_probability": 0.7846, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8058, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.222, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.778, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": -0.0212, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 256, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "hitter_id": 643376, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.1487, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1382, "model_over_probability": 0.1382, "model_under_probability": 0.8618, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1468, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8532, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 255, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": -1195, "expected_home_runs": 0.0962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0917, "model_over_probability": 0.0917, "model_under_probability": 0.9083, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9228, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8875, "edge_over": -0.0253, "edge_under": -0.0145, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 254, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.1285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1206, "model_over_probability": 0.1206, "model_under_probability": 0.8794, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.864, "edge_over": -0.0202, "edge_under": -0.0148, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0148, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 250, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.139, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1298, "model_over_probability": 0.1298, "model_under_probability": 0.8702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": -0.0252, "edge_under": -0.0149, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 248, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": -490, "expected_home_runs": 0.2121, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1911, "model_over_probability": 0.1911, "model_under_probability": 0.8089, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1989, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8011, "edge_over": -0.0151, "edge_under": -0.0216, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0151, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 247, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "hitter_id": 643376, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1487, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1382, "model_over_probability": 0.1382, "model_under_probability": 0.8618, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1485, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8515, "edge_over": -0.0156, "edge_under": -0.0199, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0156, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 241, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "hitter_id": 643376, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1487, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1382, "model_over_probability": 0.1382, "model_under_probability": 0.8618, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0156, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0156, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 242, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0898, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0859, "model_over_probability": 0.0859, "model_under_probability": 0.9141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0156, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0156, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 243, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.2406, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138, "model_over_probability": 0.2138, "model_under_probability": 0.7862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2208, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7792, "edge_over": -0.0161, "edge_under": -0.0251, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0161, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 236, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 880, "under_odds": -1515, "expected_home_runs": 0.0898, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0859, "model_over_probability": 0.0859, "model_under_probability": 0.9141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.102, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9381, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": -0.0161, "edge_under": -0.024, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0161, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 237, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.2437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163, "model_over_probability": 0.2163, "model_under_probability": 0.7837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7685, "edge_over": -0.0247, "edge_under": -0.0163, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0163, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 235, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -395, "expected_home_runs": 0.247, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2189, "model_over_probability": 0.2189, "model_under_probability": 0.7811, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2277, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7723, "edge_over": -0.0164, "edge_under": -0.0169, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0164, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.932, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 232, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "hitter_id": 663968, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0635, "model_over_probability": 0.0635, "model_under_probability": 0.9365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0165, "edge_under": -0.0185, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 229, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "hitter_id": 663968, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0635, "model_over_probability": 0.0635, "model_under_probability": 0.9365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0165, "edge_under": -0.0235, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 230, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "hitter_id": 663968, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0635, "model_over_probability": 0.0635, "model_under_probability": 0.9365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0165, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 231, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1121, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.106, "model_over_probability": 0.106, "model_under_probability": 0.894, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8752, "edge_over": -0.0239, "edge_under": -0.0167, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0167, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 226, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "hitter_id": 666158, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0637, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0617, "model_over_probability": 0.0617, "model_under_probability": 0.9383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0183, "edge_under": -0.0167, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0167, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 227, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "hitter_id": 660688, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": -1220, "expected_home_runs": 0.0984, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0937, "model_over_probability": 0.0937, "model_under_probability": 0.9063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9242, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": -0.0168, "edge_under": -0.0179, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0168, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 225, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "model_over_probability": 0.1946, "model_under_probability": 0.8054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": -0.0228, "edge_under": -0.0176, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0176, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 222, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2038, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844, "model_over_probability": 0.1844, "model_under_probability": 0.8156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1943, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8057, "edge_over": -0.0176, "edge_under": -0.0218, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0176, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 221, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "hitter_id": 660688, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 795, "under_odds": -1295, "expected_home_runs": 0.0984, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0937, "model_over_probability": 0.0937, "model_under_probability": 0.9063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1074, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8926, "edge_over": -0.018, "edge_under": -0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 217, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "hitter_id": 660688, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 795, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0984, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0937, "model_over_probability": 0.0937, "model_under_probability": 0.9063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.018, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 218, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "hitter_id": 666158, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0637, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0617, "model_over_probability": 0.0617, "model_under_probability": 0.9383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0183, "edge_under": -0.0217, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0183, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 213, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "hitter_id": 666158, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0637, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0617, "model_over_probability": 0.0617, "model_under_probability": 0.9383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0183, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0183, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 214, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.1934, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758, "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1867, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8133, "edge_over": -0.0184, "edge_under": -0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 208, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2406, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2138, "model_over_probability": 0.2138, "model_under_probability": 0.7862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0188, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0188, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.894, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 206, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 596142, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.1667, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1535, "model_over_probability": 0.1535, "model_under_probability": 0.8465, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": -0.0204, "edge_under": -0.0193, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0193, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 204, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.1285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1206, "model_over_probability": 0.1206, "model_under_probability": 0.8794, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": -0.0193, "edge_under": -0.0206, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0193, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 205, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "hitter_id": 691019, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1206, "model_over_probability": 0.1206, "model_under_probability": 0.8794, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0202, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0202, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 200, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1934, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1758, "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0203, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0203, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 199, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2038, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844, "model_over_probability": 0.1844, "model_under_probability": 0.8156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0218, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0218, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 189, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "hitter_id": 596142, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1667, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1535, "model_over_probability": 0.1535, "model_under_probability": 0.8465, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0219, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0219, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 187, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1121, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.106, "model_over_probability": 0.106, "model_under_probability": 0.894, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0239, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0239, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 175, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1946, "model_over_probability": 0.1946, "model_under_probability": 0.8054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0252, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0252, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 171, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0917, "model_over_probability": 0.0917, "model_under_probability": 0.9083, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0253, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0253, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 170, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.139, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1298, "model_over_probability": 0.1298, "model_under_probability": 0.8702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0264, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0264, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 163, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "hitter_id": 608348, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1101, "model_over_probability": 0.1101, "model_under_probability": 0.8899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0269, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 160, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163, "model_over_probability": 0.2163, "model_under_probability": 0.7837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0276, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0276, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 154, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "hitter_id": 677588, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1145, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.054, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0526, "model_over_probability": 0.0526, "model_under_probability": 0.9474, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0803, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 153, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.115, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1086, "model_over_probability": 0.1086, "model_under_probability": 0.8914, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0284, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0284, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 149, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1363, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1274, "model_over_probability": 0.1274, "model_under_probability": 0.8726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0288, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0288, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 147, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "hitter_id": 686611, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.095, "model_over_probability": 0.095, "model_under_probability": 0.905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0292, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0292, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1485, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138, "model_over_probability": 0.138, "model_under_probability": 0.862, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0301, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0301, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 140, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "hitter_id": 602104, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 740, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.093, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0888, "model_over_probability": 0.0888, "model_under_probability": 0.9112, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.119, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0302, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0302, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 139, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2098, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "model_over_probability": 0.1893, "model_under_probability": 0.8107, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0305, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0305, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 134, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 305, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2424, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153, "model_over_probability": 0.2153, "model_under_probability": 0.7847, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2469, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0316, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0316, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 126, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 945, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0663, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0641, "model_over_probability": 0.0641, "model_under_probability": 0.9359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0316, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0316, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 127, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1248, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1173, "model_over_probability": 0.1173, "model_under_probability": 0.8827, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0331, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 121, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0476, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0465, "model_over_probability": 0.0465, "model_under_probability": 0.9535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0335, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0335, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 119, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1099, "model_over_probability": 0.1099, "model_under_probability": 0.8901, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.034, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.034, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 116, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1498, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1391, "model_over_probability": 0.1391, "model_under_probability": 0.8609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0348, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 112, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "hitter_id": 656716, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 865, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0712, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0687, "model_over_probability": 0.0687, "model_under_probability": 0.9313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1036, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0349, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0349, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 111, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.156, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1444, "model_over_probability": 0.1444, "model_under_probability": 0.8556, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0358, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0358, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 110, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "hitter_id": 669357, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1762, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0365, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0365, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 107, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1352, "model_over_probability": 0.1352, "model_under_probability": 0.8648, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0372, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0372, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 105, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "hitter_id": 682657, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0623, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0604, "model_over_probability": 0.0604, "model_under_probability": 0.9396, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0376, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0376, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 102, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "hitter_id": 683146, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1019, "model_over_probability": 0.1019, "model_under_probability": 0.8981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.038, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 101, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "hitter_id": 518595, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1129, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1068, "model_over_probability": 0.1068, "model_under_probability": 0.8932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0392, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 98, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "hitter_id": 682626, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1428, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1331, "model_over_probability": 0.1331, "model_under_probability": 0.8669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0393, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0393, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 96, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "hitter_id": 609280, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 830, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0682, "model_over_probability": 0.0682, "model_under_probability": 0.9318, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1075, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0393, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0393, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 97, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1334, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1249, "model_over_probability": 0.1249, "model_under_probability": 0.8751, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0404, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0404, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 94, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "hitter_id": 693307, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 740, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0813, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0781, "model_over_probability": 0.0781, "model_under_probability": 0.9219, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.119, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0409, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0409, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 91, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0411, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0411, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 90, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1119, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1059, "model_over_probability": 0.1059, "model_under_probability": 0.8941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0422, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0422, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 88, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "hitter_id": 657656, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1338, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1252, "model_over_probability": 0.1252, "model_under_probability": 0.8748, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0429, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0429, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 84, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.18, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1647, "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0436, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0436, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1935, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759, "model_over_probability": 0.1759, "model_under_probability": 0.8241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0439, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0439, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 80, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 690, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0827, "model_over_probability": 0.0827, "model_under_probability": 0.9173, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1266, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0439, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0439, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 79, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0844, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0809, "model_over_probability": 0.0809, "model_under_probability": 0.9191, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0441, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0441, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 78, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1566, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.145, "model_over_probability": 0.145, "model_under_probability": 0.855, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0455, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0455, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 74, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1653, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1524, "model_over_probability": 0.1524, "model_under_probability": 0.8476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0456, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0456, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 73, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1065, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.101, "model_over_probability": 0.101, "model_under_probability": 0.899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0461, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0461, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 72, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0342, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0336, "model_over_probability": 0.0336, "model_under_probability": 0.9664, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0464, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0464, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 71, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14, "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0469, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0469, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 70, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 855, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0591, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0574, "model_over_probability": 0.0574, "model_under_probability": 0.9426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1047, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0473, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0473, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 69, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "hitter_id": 683734, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0991, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0943, "model_over_probability": 0.0943, "model_under_probability": 0.9057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0486, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0486, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 67, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175, "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0528, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0528, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "hitter_id": 681807, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1238, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164, "model_over_probability": 0.1164, "model_under_probability": 0.8836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0531, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0531, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 53, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "hitter_id": 669720, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0831, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0797, "model_over_probability": 0.0797, "model_under_probability": 0.9203, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0536, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0536, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0983, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0936, "model_over_probability": 0.0936, "model_under_probability": 0.9064, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0557, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0557, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 51, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0897, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0858, "model_over_probability": 0.0858, "model_under_probability": 0.9142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0571, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0571, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 49, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0921, "model_over_probability": 0.0921, "model_under_probability": 0.9079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0572, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0572, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.912, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 48, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1797, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1645, "model_over_probability": 0.1645, "model_under_probability": 0.8355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0577, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0577, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.987, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 47, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "hitter_id": 608701, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0946, "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0581, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0581, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 825, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0512, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0499, "model_over_probability": 0.0499, "model_under_probability": 0.9501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1081, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0582, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0582, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 45, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1139, "model_over_probability": 0.1139, "model_under_probability": 0.8861, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0585, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0585, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1675, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1542, "model_over_probability": 0.1542, "model_under_probability": 0.8458, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0586, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0586, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 43, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1345, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1258, "model_over_probability": 0.1258, "model_under_probability": 0.8742, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0594, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0594, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 40, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1469, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1366, "model_over_probability": 0.1366, "model_under_probability": 0.8634, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0614, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0614, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "hitter_id": 670042, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0986, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0939, "model_over_probability": 0.0939, "model_under_probability": 0.9061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0623, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0623, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "hitter_id": 672820, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0825, "model_over_probability": 0.0825, "model_under_probability": 0.9175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0624, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0624, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0994, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0946, "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0629, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0629, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.971, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 32, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "hitter_id": 641343, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.092, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0879, "model_over_probability": 0.0879, "model_under_probability": 0.9121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0636, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0636, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 31, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1228, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1156, "model_over_probability": 0.1156, "model_under_probability": 0.8844, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0646, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0646, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 30, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1362, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1273, "model_over_probability": 0.1273, "model_under_probability": 0.8727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.065, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.065, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.012, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 28, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0869, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0832, "model_over_probability": 0.0832, "model_under_probability": 0.9168, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0683, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0683, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0917, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0876, "model_over_probability": 0.0876, "model_under_probability": 0.9124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0686, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0686, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.94, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1128, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1067, "model_over_probability": 0.1067, "model_under_probability": 0.8933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0719, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0719, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.965, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "hitter_id": 673548, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1133, "model_over_probability": 0.1133, "model_under_probability": 0.8867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0736, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0736, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.998, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.945, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1241, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1167, "model_over_probability": 0.1167, "model_under_probability": 0.8833, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0756, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0756, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 96.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "hitter_id": 694192, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0855, "model_over_probability": 0.0855, "model_under_probability": 0.9145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0758, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0758, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Shane Smith", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0594, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0577, "model_over_probability": 0.0577, "model_under_probability": 0.9423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0784, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0784, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.914, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1806, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1652, "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0912, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0912, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.787, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1903, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1733, "model_over_probability": 0.1733, "model_under_probability": 0.8267, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.097, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2026, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1834, "model_over_probability": 0.1834, "model_under_probability": 0.8166, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1196, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1196, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.954, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.928, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2447, "edge_over": 0.0629, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 48.2, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 565, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2273, "edge_over": 0.0769, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.187, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 40.9, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 695, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2096, "edge_over": 0.0838, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.166, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 39.8, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 735, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "edge_over": 0.0838, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.135, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 38.7, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2334, "edge_over": 0.0251, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Lean", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.184, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 37.4, "value_rank": 5, "value_row_rank": 13, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }