{ "date": "2025-09-11", "generated_at": "2026-05-05T10:41:57.502387", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v1_deterministic", "projection_date": "2025-09-11", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 270, "matched_count": 270, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 270, "matched_rows": 270, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 24, "under_recommendation_count": 0, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 12, "lean_count": 12, "no_play_count": 246, "average_edge_over": -0.0107, "average_edge_under": -0.0269, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 270, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2025-09-11T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.3646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3055, "model_over_probability": 0.3055, "model_under_probability": 0.6945, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7685, "edge_over": 0.0645, "edge_under": -0.1055, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0645, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.101, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 34.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3055, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3092, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2334, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1085, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.3055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.284, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0645, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0645, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0682, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0645, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0698, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.043, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0774, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2322, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1073, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 71.8, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.3055, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.3055, "palantir_prob_under": 0.6945, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0645, "palantir_confidence": "High", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.3646, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.3646, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.3108, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.3108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.6892, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0698, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2334, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2334, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7666, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0076, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07740000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2025-09-11T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.3646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3055, "model_over_probability": 0.3055, "model_under_probability": 0.6945, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0616, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0616, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.101, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 34.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.3055, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3092, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2334, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1086, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.3055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.284, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0616, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0616, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0653, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0616, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0669, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0401, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0774, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2321, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1073, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 70.4, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.3055, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.3055, "palantir_prob_under": 0.6945, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0616, "palantir_confidence": "High", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.3646, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.3646, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.3108, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.3108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.6892, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0669, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2334, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2334, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7666, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0105, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07740000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2025-09-11T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.3233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2762, "model_over_probability": 0.2762, "model_under_probability": 0.7238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": 0.0588, "edge_under": -0.0992, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0588, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.105, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.002, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2762, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2637, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0948, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2495, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0588, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0588, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0463, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0588, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0423, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0321, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1941, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0939, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration 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"estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.898, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1202, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1161, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0417, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1202, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.975, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.95, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.097, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1015, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0777, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0353, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1015, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0166, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0166, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0121, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1131, 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null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.968, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1643, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1475, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0549, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1643, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1643, 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"likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1091, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1103, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, 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6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": null, "platoon_risk_flag": null, "platoon_role_type": null, "estimated_start_probability": null, "availability_status": null, "availability_factor": null, "active_roster_flag": null, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": null, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": null, "opportunity_penalty_reason": null, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.916, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.07, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1091, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1103, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1091, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1083, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0175, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0175, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0163, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1257, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0433, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0175, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0183, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0825, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, 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"handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.005, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2032, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1849, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1347, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0684, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2032, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2032, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1763, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.019, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.019, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0373, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0875, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0459, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1333, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 0, "suppression_reason_count": 0, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": 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"rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0683, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0683, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9317, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0466, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.024099999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "hitter_id": 663624, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Johan Oviedo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2025-09-11T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": 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